Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing US-Iran Tensions, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,464/mt. It initially moved sideways along the daily average, dipping to $3,442/mt during the session. Entering the night session, bulls added positions, and LME zinc rallied all the way to reach a high of $3,534/mt near the end. It finally settled up at $3,525.5/mt, up $57/mt, or 1.64%. Trading volume fell to 14,639 lots, and open interest increased by 4,214 lots to 238,000 lots.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes Remain Contested, China Accelerates Destocking, Signaling Short-Term Stabilization]

[Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Destocking Accelerates Significantly, Relative High Level Still Caps Aluminum Price Upside Room] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver. This Thursday, the destocking pace of China’s social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated notably, effectively easing the earlier high inventory pressure. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively prominent, which is expected to cap the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,452/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $13,395/mt, then its price center gradually moved up to reach $13,608.5/mt, before fluctuating downward again to finally close at $13,449/mt, a decline of 0.81%. Trading volume reached 24,800 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, an increase of 976 lots from the previous trading day, which was characterized by bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 103,500 yuan/mt, dipped in early trading to 103,480 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 104,340 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, moved sideways near the session's end, and finally closed at 103,650 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.79%. Trading volume reached 39,700 lots, and open interest stood at 157,000 lots, a decrease of 3,255 lots from the previous trading day, which was characterized by bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Capital Bulls and Bears in High-Level Stalemate, LME Zinc Fluctuates]: Overnight LME zinc opened at $3,534/mt. Early in the session, it quickly rose to a high of $3,547.5/mt before bulls reduced positions, sending LME zinc sharply lower to a low of $3,513/mt during European trading. Afterwards, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, LME zinc fluctuated and eventually closed lower at $3,534.5/mt, down $6/mt, or 0.17%. Trading volume fell to 9,816 lots, and open interest decreased by 151 lots to 234,000 lots.