SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.

On March 11, Pan Xueyuan, Member of the Standing Committee of the Yangzhou Municipal Party Committee and Executive Vice Mayor of Yangzhou, led a team to Yizheng Economic and Technological Development Zone to survey the construction progress of the CIMC Green Hydrogen Zero-Carbon Equipment Industrial Park, a key provincial project in Jiangsu. He inspected the construction progress on site, inquired about the construction plan, key challenges, and industrial layout, and required that the leading role of chain-leading hydrogen energy enterprises be fully leveraged to coordinate efforts to bring the project into operation and deliver results at an early date. Meng Dehe, Secretary of the Yizheng Municipal Party Committee, and Yu Lei, Executive Vice Mayor, accompanied the visit, while Li Jie, General Manager of CIMC Jidian and CIMC Zhongdian, and his delegation reported on the work. In front of the project planning display board, Pan Xueyuan focused on learning about the industrial park’s product layout. The project covered a total area of 150 mu, with plant space of approximately 60,000 m², and included a 15-mu supporting detection and R&D testing base. After reaching full production, it was expected to produce 2 GW of electrolyzers and hydrogen-ammonia-methanol series equipment annually. With the goal of becoming a nationally leading supplier of hydrogen-based energy equipment, the enterprise laid out the full value chain of alkaline, PEM, and AEM electrolyzers, skid-mounted hydrogen production plants, and green ammonia and green methanol equipment, which Pan Xueyuan highly affirmed. As a chain-leading enterprise in the hydrogen energy industry chain at both the provincial and municipal levels, CIMC Zhongdian will join hands with CIMC Raffles Group to integrate industry resources and build a green hydrogen equipment industry chain. Next, with the support of the local government, the enterprise will build “two centers and two platforms,” continue to lead industry innovation, and support the high-quality development of the green hydrogen industry in Yizheng and Yangzhou as a whole.

Recently, two hydrogen-powered excavators, two hydrogen-powered loaders, and four hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks were officially put into operation in the Jinshan mining area, marking the implementation of the integrated “production, storage, refueling, transportation, and use” layout of Daye’s hydrogen energy industry in the application segment. This achieved the large-scale use of hydrogen-powered heavy engineering equipment in mining areas across China and injected new momentum into the green, low-carbon transformation of mines. As core equipment developed by Taiyuan Heavy Machinery, the TZ350EH hydrogen-powered excavator and TZ958EH hydrogen-powered loader worked in coordination with hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks, covering the entire process of mining, loading, and transportation. The equipment emitted only pure water, thoroughly improving the operating environment of traditional mining areas. This batch of hydrogen-powered equipment was deeply optimized for the complex working conditions of mines, with prominent core advantages: the hydrogen-powered excavator featured zero emissions and low noise, and could operate at full load after just five minutes of hydrogen refueling; the hydrogen-powered loader integrated hydrogen power with heavy-load performance and, equipped with proprietary technology, reduced consumption and improved efficiency; the hydrogen-powered wide-body mining truck offered fast energy replenishment, a high energy recovery rate, and excellent low-temperature starting performance, laying a solid foundation for green transportation. This large-scale deployment enabled hydrogen-powered equipment to undergo practical verification in real mining scenarios. It not only opened up a new path for the clean replacement of mining equipment, but also stabilized market demand for upstream hydrogen production, storage, and transportation, promoted coordinated development across the upstream and downstream segments of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and provided a replicable and scalable practical model for transforming traditional mining areas into green and intelligent mines.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.