It is learned that as of June 18, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 7,100 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. This week, maintenance activities increased at both primary and secondary lead smelters, tightening the supply of lead ingots. Moreover, as most primary lead enterprises had pre-sold the majority of this week's lead ingot output last week, primary lead smelters maintained low inventories. During the Dragon Boat Festival, many downstream enterprises planned to take holidays, leading to a lack of lead consumption. After the holiday, primary lead smelters may face inventory buildup risks.

SMM, June 18: This week, SMM #1 lead ingot prices fluctuated upward from early to mid-week, then came under pressure and pulled back near the weekend. Driven by tight raw material inventories and bullish sentiment on lead prices, a small number of secondary lead smelters slightly raised their purchase prices for scrap batteries, while most producers kept their offers flat with last week. The industry remained in losses, with enterprises unwilling to actively raise prices to source materials, and the market largely adopted a wait-and-see approach. With lead prices weak and downstream consumption sluggish, smelters, despite low raw material inventories, had no incentive to raise prices for restocking. The anti-decline property of scrap battery prices became evident, and smelters also held a wait-and-see stance on price adjustments during the lead price uptrend. Next week, with smelters simultaneously undergoing production cuts, shutdowns, and resumptions, demand for scrap battery feedstock is mixed between bullish and bearish factors, and scrap battery purchase prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.

Next week, on the macro data front, the US May core PCE price index YoY rate, US May personal spending MoM rate, and the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI flash reading are about to be released. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in June as expected, but the meeting sent a clear hawkish signal, including a sharp upward revision to inflation forecasts and a dot plot showing that a majority of officials expected rate hikes within the year. In addition, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and entered into force, initiating a 60-day negotiation period, while the latest foreign media reports indicate that Israel has again attacked Lebanon, leaving Middle East peace talks still uncertain. On the LME lead front, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, but total inventory remains at a high level of 300,000 mt. During this period, the LME Cash-3M spread shifted from a premium last week to a discount, latest at -$28.4/mt. Meanwhile, new progress emerged in the Middle East peace talks, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes within the year rose. With a complex macro environment, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating, and the consolidation range will widen, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,955-2,000/mt. On the SHFE lead side, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, production resumptions at downstream enterprises will bring some rigid demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year mark, large downstream enterprises will close their books and take stock, and lead ingot purchasing will be suspended, providing limited support for lead prices. Meanwhile, maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters is increasing, and supply tightening expectations support stronger lead prices. Under the combined effect of these factors, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,250-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt. Due to smelter maintenance in mid-to-late June, lead ingot supply will be relatively tight. However, with the ongoing mid-year capital recouping, suppliers will continue to clear inventory and sell, and spot lead is expected to maintain small discounts (vs. SMM# lead) when selling. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises also face mid-year capital recouping. Some enterprises will maintain production with their inventory or continue to pick up previously-ordered lead ingots, with actual procurement to be postponed.

SMM, June 18: Lead prices first rose then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, smelters showed clear divergence in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt. Downstream battery plants digested inventories, weakening transactions. Mid-week, increased maintenance at smelters tightened supply, and mainstream quotations shifted to discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt. Towards the weekend, lead prices pulled back slightly, with the discount range remaining unchanged. Ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream users halted procurement early, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Spot transactions were sluggish throughout the week. Lead prices rose by 345 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. Downstream users turned wait-and-see before the Dragon Boat Festival, and transactions for secondary refined lead were subdued. Smelters' raw material inventories declined, but they were reluctant to raise purchase prices for feed, leaving scrap battery purchase prices basically stable. As of June 18, large secondary lead enterprises suffered losses of 395 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized plants incurred losses of 597 yuan/mt, narrowing by 113-115 yuan/mt compared with June 12. Looking ahead, with both production increases and cuts coexisting among secondary smelters, the quotation range for refined lead is expected to remain between discounts of 50 yuan/mt and premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Currently, low raw material inventories at smelters underpin scrap battery prices, but raising purchase prices for feed would exacerbate losses. Purchase prices are expected to remain predominantly stable. With weak finished product prices and high costs, the industry's loss-making situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, with small and medium-sized plants suffering more severe losses.

SMM June 18: This week, secondary crude lead prices rose, with a weekly increase of 175 yuan/mt. Secondary lead operating rates edged down, the sector was generally at a loss, tight scrap battery raw material supply provided cost support, and downstream made just-in-time procurement only, with overall trading sluggish. Next week, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday coinciding with downstream mid-year stocktaking will keep demand weak. Maintenance-production resumptions competition on the supply side, coupled with bearish pressures on the macro front, is expected to keep secondary crude lead prices moving sideways and in the doldrums.

SMM, June 18: As of June 18, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 19,600 mt, down 780 mt WoW from June 11. Lead prices retreated after a rapid rise this week, and downstream bargain-hunting restocking provided some destocking momentum, but overall destocking was limited by sluggish end-user battery orders. With battery enterprises observing a 1-3 day Dragon Boat Festival holiday next week, coupled with smelter production cuts due to losses and subdued raw material supply, supply-demand sides contracted simultaneously, making a significant inventory buildup in secondary lead finished products unlikely.