[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.
Mar 18, 2026 09:09[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.
Mar 18, 2026 09:08SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.
Mar 18, 2026 09:05[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: V-Shaped Rebound in Futures, ADC12 to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overnight, aluminum alloy 2604 in the night session bottomed out and showed a rangebound fluctuating trend: after the opening, it quickly fell to around 23,570 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, with a trading range of 23,570-23,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,710 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 0.50% from the previous day's closing price. Intraday, it first fell sharply and then staged a V-shaped rebound, before entering sideways consolidation, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts remaining balanced. Trading volume shrank, open interest edged up slightly, and market sentiment remained cautious.
Mar 17, 2026 09:07SMM, March 17: Aluminum ingot: Today, sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market recovered moderately. The rebound in early-session futures prices drove spot prices higher, and suppliers took the opportunity to accelerate cashing out. Traders showed moderate willingness to purchase, while major players held prices firm in procurement, but downstream buyers were unwilling to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. In the afternoon, futures moved downward, buyers turned cautious, and transactions started steady before weakening, with overall performance showing a mild rebound. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fees for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) were 70 yuan/mt for Φ90/100 and 20 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The rise in the base price caused processing fees to continue to decline, while weaker intraday futures prices intensified downstream bearish sentiment, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. After futures surged and then pulled back, offers were lowered accordingly. Market inquiries were scarce, transactions were sluggish, and even volume discounts remained ineffective in stimulating deals.
Mar 17, 2026 17:20SMM, March 17: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Sellers held prices firm, buyers showed greater price acceptance, and purchasing enthusiasm also increased. Today, mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market were concentrated at -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.12, down 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM. Today, futures prices opened lower and moved higher. Before the opening, quotations in the central China market were relatively high, mainly at discounts of 320-330 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract, then prices gradually declined. Traders maintained strong bullish sentiment and high enthusiasm for purchase, with overall trading volume relatively large. As suppliers basically finished shipments, circulating spot availability became tight, and market quotations continued to rise, but the transaction scale was relatively small. In the end, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 10 yuan below the central China price to 40 yuan above the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.6, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.
Mar 17, 2026 14:31With the development of the scrap metal industry, companies are paying increasing attention to scrap aluminum varieties and price points. To meet market demands and provide more comprehensive spot price information, SMM, after extensive market research and preliminary communication, plans to launch an optimized Malaysian scrap aluminum price point on October 13, 2025: - Tense Scrap Malaysia (Mixed Aluminium Castings) Introduction to the new SMM Malaysian scrap aluminum price points: SMM, taking into account the import-export and local demand characteristics of Malaysian end-users across different application scenarios, and based on overseas policies and market changes, has revised the Malaysian scrap aluminum price points. The specific details are as follows: Adjustment 1: Addition of Tense Scrap Malaysia (Mixed Aluminium Castings) . This price point will replace the existing Shredded Mixed Aluminum Castings (Tense) Scrap in Malaysia, FOB. - Updated price point name and definition: Malaysia Scrap Aluminum Mixed Aluminum Castings (Tense) , EXWorks, excluding VAT, USD/tonne. - Reason: The new price point better aligns with the local scrap aluminum market conditions under updated Malaysian policies, thereby more accurately reflecting market prices. - Launch date: October 13, 2025 - Update frequency: The new price point will be updated before 12:00 PM on the first working day of each week (Kuala Lumpur time). Adjustment 2: Discontinuation of Shredded Mixed Aluminum Castings (Tense) Scrap in Malaysia, FOB . - Discontinuation date: October 10, 2025 We welcome more companies from both upstream and downstream industries to participate and support SMM in better serving the new energy industry chain. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact Liu Xiaolei at (+86)15021973263 or Chin Khai Yuen at (+60)124247012, or email adrian.chin@smm.cn.
PriceSep 26, 2025 15:43Dear User, Greetings! To assist secondary aluminum enterprises in accurately grasping the regional supply-demand pattern within the domestic market, obtaining real-time spot aluminum scrap price information from core production areas, effectively reducing information barriers and communication costs in transaction processes, and further improving the price system and research dimensions of the secondary aluminum industry chain, SMM, after multiple rounds of market surveys and data accumulation, plans to revise the content of the original price points. The specific update arrangements are as follows for market reference. Explanation of Modifications to the Original Aluminum Scrap Price Points: The content changes for the following four price points—Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Foshan), Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Anhui), Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Changege), and Shredded Aluminum Cast Scrap (Foshan)—only involve supplementary modifications to the names, specifications, and definitions of the previous price points and do not affect the reference and viewing of corresponding historical prices. 1. Price Point Name: Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Foshan) revised to Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap Liquid Aluminum Price (Foshan) Specification: Water yield rate 90-93% revised to Water yield rate 90-93%, Copper >1.5% Definition: Transaction price, self pick-up price at goods yard revised to Liquid aluminum price, settled based on actual metal yield, guidance price for self pick-up at goods yards in the Foshan area. 2. Price Point Name: Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Anhui) revised to Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap Liquid Aluminum Price (Anhui) Specification: Water yield rate 90-93% revised to Water yield rate 90-93%, Copper >1.5% Definition: Transaction price, self pick-up price at goods yard revised to Liquid aluminum price, settled based on actual metal yield, guidance price for self pick-up at goods yards in the Anhui area. 3. Price Point Name: Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap (Changege) revised to Shredded Aluminum Tense Scrap Liquid Aluminum Price (Changege) Specification: Water yield rate 90-93% revised to Water yield rate 90-93%, Copper >1.5% Definition: Transaction price, self pick-up price at goods yard revised to Liquid aluminum price, settled based on actual metal yield, guidance price for self pick-up at goods yards in the Changege area. 4. Price Point Name: Shredded Aluminum Cast Scrap (Foshan) revised to Shredded Aluminum Cast Scrap Liquid Aluminum Price (Foshan) Definition: Transaction price, self pick-up price at goods yard revised to Liquid aluminum price, settled based on actual metal yield, guidance price for self pick-up at goods yards in the Foshan area. Effective Time: The modifications to the aforementioned price points will be officially released starting November 12, 2025, and updated every working day. This revision aims to more accurately reflect market price levels through more refined grade classifications and provide market participants with more targeted decision-making references. Should you have any questions, please feel free to contact Chen Chichang at 021-51595820. SMM Aluminum Industry Research Team November 12, 2025
PriceNov 12, 2025 17:09With the development of the scrap metal industry, companies are paying more attention to scrap aluminum varieties and price points across different geographical regions. To meet market demands and provide more comprehensive spot price information, SMM, after extensive market research and preliminary communication, plans to launch the following price points for local scrap metal prices in Malaysia and Thailand on November 3, 2025: Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable) Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans) Thai Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable) Thai Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans) Introduction to the new SMM Malaysian scrap aluminum price points: SMM, taking into account the local and international demand for overseas aluminium scrap prices primarily in Southeast Asia, and based on overseas policies and market changes, has decided to launch several price points in reflection of the Southeast Asian aluminium scrap markets and trade. The specific details are as follows: Price Point 1: Addition of Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable) Name and Definition : Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable), ExWorks Malaysia, including VAT, MYR/tonne Launch Date : November 3, 2025 Updated Frequency : The new price point will be updated before 12:00 PM on the first working day of each week (Kuala Lumpur time) Price Point 2: Addition of Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans) Name and Definition : Malaysian Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans), ExWorks Malaysia, including VAT, MYR/tonne Launch Date : November 3, 2025 Updated Frequency : The new price point will be updated before 12:00 PM on the first working day of each week (Kuala Lumpur time) Price Point 3: Addition of Thai Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable) Name and Definition : Thai Aluminium Scrap – Talon (Aluminium Wire and Cable), ExWorks Thailand, including VAT, THB/tonne Launch Date : November 3, 2025 Updated Frequency : The new price point will be updated before 12:00 PM on the first working day of each week (Kuala Lumpur time) Price Point 4: Addition of Thai Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans) Name and Definition : Thai Aluminium Scrap – UBC (Used Beverage Cans), ExWorks Thailand, including VAT, THB/tonne Launch Date : November 3, 2025 Updated Frequency : The new price point will be updated before 12:00 PM on the first working day of each week (Kuala Lumpur time) We welcome more companies from both upstream and downstream industries to participate and support SMM in better serving the new energy industry chain. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact Liu Xiaolei at (+86)15021973263 or Chin Khai Yuen at (+60)124247012, or email adrian.chin@metal.com.
PriceOct 27, 2025 17:51