The latest data shows that the number of cities experiencing a MoM decline in housing prices increased in May, indicating that the market is once again showing signs of adjustment. According to the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 16, in May 2025, the number of cities with a MoM increase in new home prices was 13, a decrease of 9 cities from the previous month; the number of cities with a decline was 53, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. For second-hand home prices, 3 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 67 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 3 cities from the previous month. "Overall, policies aimed at promoting the stabilization of the real estate market have continued to show effectiveness, and the real estate market operated relatively smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs improvement. Continuous efforts are required to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. For new homes, the MoM decline in the new residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide was 0.2% in May, slightly wider than the previous month. Specifically, in first-tier cities, the MoM new home sales price changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2% in May; in second-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2%; in third-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes declined by 0.3%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 13 cities with rising housing prices, the top 5 cities in terms of housing price index increases were Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanning, Urumqi, and Shenyang. Among them, Hangzhou led the gains among the 70 cities with a 0.8% increase. Shanghai was the only first-tier city where new home prices rose against the trend, with an increase of 0.7%, second only to Hangzhou; the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, saw housing prices pull back by 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. "The MoM increase in Shanghai's new home prices is attributed to the concentrated launch of high-end properties in the market, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting market enthusiasm and raising the overall average price of Shanghai's new home market. Hangzhou stood out among second-tier cities, with a heated land market driving up interest in property searches in surrounding areas and injecting strong confidence into the real estate market," said Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. Compared to the new home market, the second-hand home market faced more pronounced pressure. Data showed that the MoM decline in the price index for 70 cities was 0.5% in May. Among them, the MoM decline in the second-hand residential housing price index for first-tier cities was 0.7%, widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties both declined by 0.5% MoM, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points each. "It has become commonplace for second-hand housing to adopt a volume discount strategy. Compared to April, although the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen has increased, it should also be noted that this has led to a rise in home-search enthusiasm and an increase in trading volume," said Zhang Bo. According to the 58 Anjuke Leading Index, the home-search enthusiasm diffusion index rose by 0.14 points MoM in May 2025, indicating a decrease in the number of cities with declining enthusiasm and an increase in the number of cities with rebounding enthusiasm. Analysts believe this serves as a key improvement signal for the market to begin experiencing a price and volume correction in June. Meanwhile, the diffusion index for the duration of listed properties decreased from 0.5 to 0.38, indicating that the duration of listed properties in most cities has shortened and the de-stocking speed has accelerated. In Zhang Bo's view, this change mainly stems from two aspects: firstly, the recovery in home-search demand has improved the matching efficiency between buyers and sellers; secondly, real estate agents are promoting price reductions for high-value properties to facilitate transactions. It is worth noting that the market expects more substantial policy support. The State Council Executive Meeting held on June 13 proposed to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force." Industry insiders believe this sends a strong signal to the market to further stabilize the housing sector. The meeting pointed out the need to steadily and forcefully promote the construction of "quality housing," incorporate it into the urban renewal mechanism to strengthen work coordination, and provide policy support in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing real estate projects nationwide, further optimize existing policies, enhance the systematic and effective implementation of policies, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks, thereby driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force. "The statement at this State Council Executive Meeting about 'driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force,' with stronger wording, implies that more targeted incremental measures may be on the way," said Chen Shen, an analyst at Huatai Securities. He further pointed out that the policy ideas of "conducting a comprehensive survey, optimizing, and adopting a multi-pronged approach" proposed at this State Council Executive Meeting are noteworthy. Among them, conducting a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing projects nationwide aims to clarify key issues such as land idleness, providing data support for subsequently revitalizing stock resources through means such as acquisition and storage, and optimizing the rhythm of land supply. Secondly, promoting the construction of "quality housing" and incorporating it into the urban renewal system is a way to activate demand by optimizing supply. Meanwhile, exerting comprehensive efforts in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking emphasizes enhancing the systematic and effective implementation of existing policies to boost market confidence. Yuan Hao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, also believes that although the total transaction volume of China's new and second-hand housing markets has remained relatively stable for nearly three years, the current volume and price have not yet fully entered a positive cycle. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a possibility of increasing policy support in the future. "The recent statement on halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market has been adjusted from 'continuously consolidating' to 'greater efforts,' indicating that 'halting the decline and stabilizing' remains the main policy tone. It is expected that a new round of supportive policies may be introduced, which may include an interest rate cut on home loans, increasing the supply of high-quality housing, optimizing acquisition and storage, and advancing urban renewal projects," Yuan Hao said.
Jun 17, 2025 09:49To boost market vitality, Guangzhou has taken a crucial step in optimizing its real estate policies. On June 13, Guangzhou released the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption (Draft for Public Comment)", seeking public feedback. The plan explicitly proposes to "systematically reduce consumption restrictions, optimize real estate policies, comprehensively lift purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lower down payment ratios and interest rates for loans." This draft for public comment views real estate consumption as a "key link" in boosting the overall vitality of the consumer market. Industry analysts generally believe that the implementation of this series of policies will effectively stimulate Guangzhou's property market and accelerate the process of stabilizing housing prices. More critically, Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that Guangzhou, as a first-tier city, sending a comprehensive and clear signal of policy easing, indicates an increased likelihood of further policy relaxation in first-tier cities. Clear Signal of Comprehensive Easing "This move marks Guangzhou as potentially the first first-tier city in the country to comprehensively lift the 'four restrictions'—purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price caps, and loan restrictions," Zhang Bo told reporters. In fact, Guangzhou had already laid the groundwork for easing real estate policies. Chen Xueqiang, Research Director of the South China Branch of the China Index Academy, said in an interview with reporters that the comprehensive lifting of sales and purchase restrictions mentioned in this "Draft for Public Comment" had already been fully implemented in Guangzhou in May and September 2024, respectively. Although no official document had been previously issued regarding the lifting of price caps, the policy had already been in practice, meaning developers still needed to register prices, but the government no longer provided guidance prices. Regarding credit policies, Chen Xueqiang added that the current down payment ratios for first-time and second-time commercial loans in Guangzhou are both 15%, with the first-time commercial loan interest rate at 3% and the housing provident fund interest rate at 2.6%, which are already at relatively low levels. There is room for further reductions in the down payment ratios for housing provident fund loans in the future. From the perspective of Guangzhou's own real estate market situation, policy adjustments are also very necessary. According to Zhang Bo, based on housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Guangzhou is a first-tier city facing relatively significant downward pressure on housing prices, with both the new and second-hand housing markets remaining in a downward trend this year. Although Anjuke's online data shows that the overall second-hand listing prices stabilized in June, price declines were more pronounced in peripheral areas such as Baiyun, Panyu, Nansha, and Zengcheng. "Therefore, by comprehensively lifting purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for loans, the aim is to eliminate administrative intervention, allow the market to return to supply and demand-driven dynamics, boost property transactions, and accelerate the stabilization of housing prices."Zhang Bo said. Chen Xueqiang also believes that the draft for public comments explicitly expands the scope of cancellation to include restrictions on resale and price caps, and emphasizes reducing down payment ratios and interest rates. This is a comprehensive confirmation of the policies already implemented, sending a strong signal of easing to the market. Several analysts have pointed out that among first-tier cities, Guangzhou has frequently taken the lead in introducing easing measures in the past, and the new policies in Guangzhou this time may continue to trigger a chain reaction, with other first-tier cities potentially following suit in relaxing their policy restrictions. Multi-dimensional Efforts to Activate Demand In addition to easing core restrictive measures, Guangzhou's current plan also deploys measures from multiple angles, aiming to activate latent demand and comprehensively meet housing consumption needs. The plan explicitly proposes to steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities, with plans to initiate renovation of over 150 old residential communities and upgrade over 9,000 old residential elevators by 2025, achieving fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village renovation. "Such quantitative targets demonstrate Guangzhou's emphasis on urban renewal and its determination for sustained investment," Zhang Bo analyzed. As a core supporting measure for optimizing Guangzhou's real estate policies, the renovation of old residential communities has been deeply advanced in recent years, leading the nation. Through institutional innovation, diverse participation, and precise implementation, it has achieved a positive interaction between improving people's livelihoods and urban development. Meanwhile, Yan Yuejin emphasized that urban village renovation will effectively promote the release of latent home-buying or housing demand. The plan also proposes to "advance the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing." In fact, Guangzhou has been at the forefront nationwide in terms of special bond acquisitions and storage. Yan Yuejin believes that the mention of this in the current plan indicates that special loans will continue to play a significant role in the subsequent acquisition of existing commercial housing for resettlement purposes. Furthermore, the plan requires the continuous optimization of housing provident fund usage policies, supporting depositors in applying for individual housing loans from the housing provident fund while withdrawing funds from it to pay for home down payments, and further optimizing policy measures for rent extraction. Industry insiders believe that through the comprehensive withdrawal of restrictive policies, the continuous optimization of credit policies, as well as a stimulus policy package of supporting measures including urban village renovation, utilization of existing housing, and housing provident fund support, Guangzhou is striving to unblock the housing consumption chain and inject confidence into the market. If the policies are smoothly implemented, Guangzhou will not only become the first first-tier city to bid farewell to the era of "four restrictions" (restrictions on purchases, sales, prices, and loans), but it will also provide a reference sample for other major cities.
Jun 14, 2025 20:13During this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the performance of the new home market varied. Data released by Centaline Property on June 3 showed that a total of 46,100 m² of newly built commercial residential properties were sold in Shanghai during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday (5.31-6.2), up 87.4% YoY. "According to our monitored data, over 100 projects in Shanghai recorded sales contracts during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Most projects had single-digit sales, but there were still some popular projects with significant sales volumes. Among these, some high-quality projects, due to their large sales volumes, drove up the transaction data," said Lu Wenxi, Senior Research Manager at Centaline Property. In Wuhan, data released by the China Index Academy today showed that 571 newly built commercial residential properties were registered online in Wuhan during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a registered area of 64,900 m², an increase of 26% compared to the holiday last year. It is understood that the increase in transaction volume in Wuhan during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday was mainly due to developers seizing the holiday opportunity to increase their marketing efforts and launch new projects. Many projects obtained sales permits and were launched before the holiday. Projects with good sales performance were mostly newly planned projects with significant product advantages, leading to better sales. In Shenzhen, according to statistics from the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday (5.31-6.2), 194 new residential properties (including both existing and pre-sale properties) were sold in Shenzhen, including 167 pre-sale new residential properties, down 23.4% compared to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday last year; 97 second-hand residential properties were sold, up 32.9% YoY. Meng Xinzeng, Senior Analyst at the China Index Academy, introduced that during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some projects in certain cities did perform well. However, overall, although most cities continued their previous sales promotions, the market performance remained relatively mediocre. He stated that, based on the market transaction situation in May, the MoM price increase of new homes in 100 cities expanded, while the second-hand home market continued the trend of "volume discount." According to data monitored by the China Index Academy, in May 2025, the average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities nationwide was 16,815 yuan/m², up 0.30% MoM, with the increase expanding by 0.16 percentage points compared to April, and up 2.56% YoY. Several industry insiders told reporters that the increase in average prices was somewhat related to the driving factors of the transaction structure. "The active performance of improved housing projects has driven the continued increase in average prices in May, especially in first-tier cities, where the increase was more pronounced. Among these, first-tier cities saw a 0.9% MoM increase, with the growth rate rising by 0.53 percentage points compared to the previous month. At the same time, it should be noted that second-tier cities only saw a slight 0.06% MoM increase, a decrease from the 0.1% increase in the previous month, while third- and fourth-tier cities continued to see MoM declines."Li Yujia, the chief researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said. Regarding this phenomenon, the president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute told reporters that, from the supply side, mid-year is typically an important period for property sales. Developers tend to accelerate the launch of new projects in high-tier cities, and the increase in the supply of high-quality properties has become a significant force driving up market transaction activity. "Many real estate enterprises are currently betting on 'high-end improvement properties,' leading to a concentrated entry of high-quality projects in core cities. Additionally, the heat in the land market in core cities also spills over into the new home market. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have all auctioned off plots with high total and unit prices. In particular, Hangzhou's overall premium rate significantly outpaces other cities, which has also played a role in boosting market enthusiasm and expectations," Zhang Bo said in an interview with reporters. Industry insiders pointed out that while projects in prime locations in some high-tier cities are selling well, it should also be noted that the MoM decline in second-hand housing prices widened in May, with varying degrees of pullbacks observed across all tier cities. Data from the China Index Academy showed that in May 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,794 yuan/m², down 0.71% MoM, with the decline widening by 0.02 percentage points compared to March; it was down 7.24% YoY. Li Yujia introduced that since April, the listing volume of second-hand homes has continued to increase, particularly with a rise in the listing volume of large-sized units in the market. "The increase in replacement demand among some homeowners has led to a growth in the listing volume. The entry of improved new properties into the market has become more pronounced in competition with existing homes. Coupled with an increase in homeowners willing to sell at a discount, this has resulted in a more noticeable adjustment in second-hand home prices," Li Yujia said. In response, Zhang Bo also pointed out that due to policy adjustments in the new home market and concessions from developers, some homebuyers may shift to the new home market, intensifying competition in the second-hand home market. He predicts that if the listing volume of second-hand homes continues to increase, it may force second-hand home prices to continue to pull back. "From the perspective of the second-hand home market, due to factors such as land scarcity, large population inflows, and high levels of economic development in the core areas of hot cities, home prices are expected to remain relatively stable. Some scarce properties with location advantages may even see a slight rise. However, properties without unique location or resource advantages will face market competition pressures. For some small and medium-sized cities with large inventories, the destocking pressure in the second-hand home market remains significant, and it is still necessary to continue promoting transactions through measures such as price reductions," Zhang Bo added. Meng Xinzeng also believes that after the school district demand for second-hand homes has been released in stages, transactions are expected to gradually stabilize by mid-year. Under the influence of high listing volumes, "volume discount" will remain the mainstream in the second-hand home market in the short term.
Jun 3, 2025 18:31The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The coke procurement prices of large steel mills in Hebei have been reduced, with a decrease of 50 yuan/mt for wet quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for coke dry quenching. The specific situation after adjustment is as follows: Grade 1 wet quenched coke (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT≤7) is priced at 1,410 yuan/mt; Grade 1 coke dry quenching (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT≤0) is priced at 1,625 yuan/mt. The above prices are tax-inclusive, delivered to the mill and payable upon acceptance, effective from 0:00 on May 28, 2025.
May 29, 2025 07:30The central bank's interest rate cut policy was implemented as scheduled, and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was adjusted accordingly. On May 20, the LPR quotes for May were released: the LPR for loans with a maturity of over five years was 3.5%, down from 3.6% the previous month. The LPR for one-year loans was 3%, down from 3.1% the previous month. This is a significant move in monetary policy following the central bank's announcement of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in early May. Researchers pointed out that with the five-year LPR falling to a historical low, the mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers nationwide will enter the "2%" era, further reducing the monthly mortgage payment costs for homebuyers. Coupled with policies such as the reduction in the housing provident fund interest rate and adjustments to the mortgage rate on existing home loans, the real estate market is set to undergo a new round of systematic cost optimization. For example, if a commercial loan of 1 million yuan is taken out for 30 years with equal principal and interest repayments, a 10 basis point drop in the LPR will reduce the monthly mortgage payment by 56 yuan, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 20,000 yuan over 30 years. The mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers nationwide is expected to fall to 2.95%. "Currently, the policy floor for mortgage rates on first-time and second-time home purchases has been lifted nationwide, and the mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers in many cities has already fallen to a historical low of around 3.0%. This reduction in the LPR for loans with a maturity of over five years will help guide mortgage rates to fall further across the country, continuing to reduce the home purchase costs for homebuyers," said Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at the China Index Academy. Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst at Centaline Property, also told reporters, "This 10 basis point drop in the LPR means that the mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers nationwide, which has hovered around the 3% mark for nearly a year, will now enter the 2% range." According to statistics from the Centaline Property Research Institute, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2025 was 3.11%, showing a slight fluctuation from 3.10% in Q4 2024 (it was around 3.33% in Q3 2024). The average mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers was around 3.06%. "It is expected that after this interest rate cut, the mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers nationwide will fall to around 2.95%," Zhang Dawei said. He further stated that before the interest rate cut, the mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers in most cities had already fallen to between 2.8% and 3%. Currently, the mortgage rates on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are all LPR-45BP. After this interest rate cut, the highest mortgage rate on existing home loans for first-time homebuyers in first-tier cities will fall to 3.05%, while other cities will see a comprehensive reduction to around 2.9%. Taking Beijing as an example, the previously implemented mortgage rates on existing home loans for first-time and second-time home purchases were 3.15% (LPR-45BP) and 3.35% (outside the Fifth Ring Road, LPR-25BP)/3.55% (inside the Fifth Ring Road, LPR-5BP), respectively. After this adjustment, the mortgage rates on existing home loans for first-time and second-time home purchases in Beijing are expected to be adjusted to 3.05% (LPR-45BP) and 3.25% (outside the Fifth Ring Road, LPR-25BP)/3.45% (inside the Fifth Ring Road, LPR-5BP), respectively. Among them, the mortgage rates on existing home loans for first-time home purchases and second-time home purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road have both fallen to historical lows. For homebuyers, the benefits of an interest rate cut are evident. An industry insider told reporters that over a 30-year repayment period, the cumulative interest savings from this interest rate cut would be substantial. Many potential homebuyers who were previously deterred by high interest rates now find their home-buying plans more feasible as costs decrease following the interest rate reduction. Chen Wenjing believes that the recent LPR reduction will also drive down the mortgage rate on existing home loans. After the mortgage rate re-pricing date, the mortgage rate on existing home loans can follow suit and decrease, thereby reducing the repayment pressure on homeowners who have already purchased properties. Looking back at history, according to statistics from Centaline Property, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has undergone multiple reductions, with a cumulative decline of 60 basis points. Zhang Dawei stated that, observing the trend, amidst a complex economic environment, the market expects monetary policy to become more accommodative. "With the reduction in deposit interest rates, it is likely that mortgage rates will continue to decline in the future." Conducive to consolidating the stable trend of the real estate market The recent LPR reduction is not an isolated event but a key part of the central bank's series of stimulus policy packages. On May 7, departments such as the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a press conference, during which the PBOC governor announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy interest rates. Specifically, the interest rate for the 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market was lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.4%, and it is expected that this will lead to a synchronous decline of approximately 0.1 percentage point in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR). Subsequently, on May 20, the 1-year and over-5-year LPRs were reduced by 10 basis points, with the reduction in line with market expectations. In addition, on May 7, the PBOC also announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market; a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rate for individual housing provident fund loans, with the interest rate for first-time home purchases with a term of over five years lowered from 2.85% to 2.6%, and interest rates for other terms adjusted accordingly. "Overall, there are still many external uncertainties and instability factors recently. The successive implementation of RRR and interest rate cuts since May will help consolidate the stable operation of the macro economy and also contribute to the stability of the real estate market," Chen Wenjing said. Industry insiders pointed out that with the reduction in housing provident fund loan interest rates and the recent reduction in the over-5-year LPR, the cost of home purchases for homebuyers will be further reduced, supporting the release of residents' housing demand. According to a research report by Orient Securities, the decline in new home sales volume in the first quarter of this year narrowed significantly, with signs of price stabilization emerging in some high-tier cities. The second-hand housing market continued the trend of volume discount. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, previously stated, "Based on the economic and financial performance and the effectiveness of various policy tools, we can further expand the scale of these tools and improve their policy elements." Consequently, Chen Wenjing anticipates that in the future, more policies providing financial support for the real estate sector are expected to continue to be implemented, such as financial policies to support the sale of completed homes and funding for urban renewal projects. "Given the seasonal effects and fluctuations in exports during Q2, the real estate market is facing certain downward pressure. It is expected that real estate policies in Q2 will lean towards providing a safety net rather than strong stimulus measures. There may be policies introduced to optimize the acquisition and storage of commercial housing, as well as supporting policies for urban village renovation. Some industry experts also believe there is a possibility of further easing in first-tier cities. If these measures are implemented, they will play a role in further stabilizing market expectations," said Zhao Xuxiang, an analyst at Orient Securities.
May 20, 2025 13:55The real estate market in April saw a slight pullback in popularity. According to the latest data, both new and existing home prices showed signs of adjustment, with market confidence and transaction momentum needing further improvement. Based on the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on May 19, in April 2025, the number of cities where new home prices rose MoM was 22, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 45 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 4 cities from the previous month. For existing home prices, 5 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 5 cities from the previous month; 64 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, stated that under the influence of various policies aimed at halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market, China's real estate market has continued to move towards halting the decline and stabilizing this year. Transactions in some first- and second-tier cities have recovered to some extent, and housing prices have remained generally stable. "However, it should also be noted that the overall real estate market is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. Rigid and improvement-oriented demand remains to be released, and the pressure to destock real estate in some regions is still relatively high. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the halting of the decline and stabilization of the real estate market." Data shows that the MoM growth rate of the new commercial residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide in April was -0.1%. Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that the weak performance of the new home price index in that month was mainly due to the fact that April entered the off-season after the "little spring" sales peak. Specifically, in April, the MoM growth rate of new commercial residential housing sales prices in first-tier cities turned flat from a 0.1% increase in the previous month; in second-tier cities, it remained flat MoM; in third-tier cities, it decreased by 0.2% MoM, the same rate of decline as the previous month. The top five cities in terms of housing price index growth were Dalian, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan. "Currently, there are mainly two types of cities with relatively resilient markets. One type consists of cities with a very high urban hierarchy, such as Shanghai and Hangzhou; the other type includes cities like Tianjin and Taiyuan, where supply and demand indicators are relatively stable," said Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the E-House China Research and Development Institute. It is worth noting that new home prices in first-tier cities ended a four-month consecutive upward trend. Among them, Shanghai led the gains in first-tier cities, with a MoM increase of 0.5%, followed by Beijing with a 0.1% MoM increase, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw decreases of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. "The market conditions among first-tier cities also diverged in April. New home prices in Beijing and Shanghai rose, indicating that the real estate markets in these two cities still have certain supporting factors. In particular, the overall popularity of both new and existing homes in Shanghai still showed a slight increase. Driven by high-end improvement projects, the new home market in Shanghai in April continued to see a sustained rise in popularity. This can be attributed to its unique urban status and market demand structure, as well as its efforts to increase the supply of new homes in core areas," said Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. The adjustment in the second-hand housing market has been more pronounced. In April, the second-hand housing price index for 70 cities fell by 0.4% QoQ, a significant increase from the -0.2% decline in the previous month. Among them, the selling prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities shifted from growth to decline, falling by 0.2% QoQ, compared to a 0.2% increase in the previous month. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand homes both fell by 0.4% QoQ, with the decline expanding by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. "The weakening market transactions are partly related to seasonal factors. Historically, housing prices tend to weaken in Q2. Moreover, the increased supply of high-quality homes in the new housing market has had a certain impact on the second-hand housing market," said Li Yujia. As the supply-side reform in the new housing market takes effect, the transaction cycle between new and second-hand homes is accelerating, with replacement demand driving faster transactions, which has a positive effect on halting the decline in second-hand housing prices. At the policy level, the central and local governments have taken proactive actions since April, introducing multiple measures to stabilize the real estate market. The April 25 meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to intensify urban renewal efforts, advance the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses in an orderly manner, accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, increase the supply of high-grade housing, optimize policies for acquiring existing commercial housing, and continuously consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at China Index Academy, believes that the Political Bureau's statement on the real estate market at the end of April, shifting from "halting the decline and stabilizing the market" since September 26 last year to "continuously consolidating stability" this time, not only reflects the central government's objective assessment of the recovery in real estate sales since Q4 last year but also demonstrates a full understanding of the ongoing pressures in the market. The market still requires sustained policy efforts to further consolidate the stable trend. It is expected that various policies will continue to be implemented at an accelerated pace, focusing on areas such as urban village renovation, high-grade housing supply, and the acquisition of existing housing.
May 19, 2025 18:21