[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Review] The most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract 2602 opened at 21,215 yuan/mt today. After opening, the price initially rose slightly before entering a phase of fluctuating rangebound and pulling back, during which it touched the intraday low of 21,130 yuan/mt. During the session, it rebounded quickly from the low and then shifted to fluctuating rangebound, with the center gradually rising above the intraday moving average. Toward the close, the price surged again and continued to climb, hitting a new intraday high of 21,485 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 21,480 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt or 1.01% from the previous trading day. Bears mainly reduced their positions in the futures market.

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis SMM May 29: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,105 yuan/mt today, hitting a high of 20,140 yuan/mt and a low of 20,005 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,070 yuan/mt, down 0.20%. Trading volume stood at 111,000 lots, while open interest reached 196,000 lots. SMM Review: Macro perspective, the domestic positive sentiment remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties persist. Fundamentals side, short-term aluminum market supply remains stable without significant changes. According to SMM statistics, Guangdong's aluminum ingot inventory reached 212,000 mt on May 30, Wuxi's stood at 132,000 mt, and Gongyi's totaled 46,000 mt, bringing the combined inventory across these three regions to 390,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. Cost side, price fluctuations triggered by earlier bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea have gradually eased, while spot alumina price increases have slowed markedly. As alumina producers' profit margins improve, some companies are expected to resume production, which may impact future market supply. Demand side, although some industries have shown signs of off-season weakness, the overall decline is better than expected, with demand resilience remaining. Overall, the unexpected decline in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices and spot premiums. However, the lack of macro-level positive surprises recently has made it difficult for aluminum prices to rise further. Meanwhile, off-season pressure on the demand side has also limited the upside room for aluminum prices to some extent. Therefore, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. The most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,955 yuan/mt today, reaching a high of 2,973 yuan/mt and a low of 2,930 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,962 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume reached 246,000 lots, while open interest stood at 320,000 lots. SMM Review: This week, alumina operating capacity continued to rebound, up 1.46 million mt/year WoW to 86.67 million mt/year, further easing spot supply pressure and slowing spot price gains. Overseas alumina trading remained sluggish recently, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have turned profitable, with the import window gradually opening. In the short term, as some alumina production cuts resume operations, supply pressure is expected to ease further. The alumina industry's average profit has entered positive territory, and market expectations for production resumptions remain strong. Alumina futures prices pulled back first, which may lead to weaker spot prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to domestic alumina producers' capacity changes and imported alumina supply conditions. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis SMM May 24: Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,175 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 20,175 yuan/mt and a low of 20,075 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,175 yuan/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume stood at 56,000 lots, with open interest at 204,000 lots. SMM Review: Macro front, the US dollar index rose 0.33% overnight to 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending cut bill. On Thursday, US Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that if the Trump administration maintains tariffs on US trading partners at around 10%, the Fed may begin interest rate cuts in H2 2025. Fundamentals side, short-term supply-side changes remain relatively small. Cost side, the specific impact of the Guinea incident on local bauxite supply awaits assessment, potentially providing short-term sentiment-driven cost support for alumina. Demand side faces dual pressures of domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainty, with short-term operating rates at aluminum processing enterprises continuing to decline under pressure. Subsequent focus will be on whether downstream export orders can genuinely improve and offset weakening domestic demand expectations. Overall, current low inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the lack of macro catalysts beyond expectations to further drive prices this week, coupled with off-season demand-side pressures limiting upside room, suggests spot aluminum ingot in mainstream consumption areas will face weak supply and demand. Short-term aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate rangebound, with attention on domestic and overseas demand performance, month-end inventory trends, and bauxite supply disruptions. Last night, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,150 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 3,170 yuan/mt and a low of 3,102 yuan/mt, before closing at 3,103 yuan/mt, down 2.42%. Trading volume was 660,000 lots, with open interest at 390,000 lots. SMM Review: This week saw maintenance at some enterprises in north China, while some alumina refineries in south China completed maintenance, leading to a rebound in operating capacity. Nationwide operating capacity increased by 1.09 million mt WoW. In the near term, new alumina enterprises are scheduled for maintenance, while some are expected to complete maintenance and resume operations, suggesting overall operating capacity will continue to rebound slightly. Amid bauxite supply disruption news, rising bauxite prices are expected to strengthen alumina cost support, coupled with a short-term fundamentals yet to shift to surplus, maintaining upward momentum. However, with supply recovery, alumina price gains may face resistance, likely holding up well in the short term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.

[SMM Daily Review: Steady Performance of Cobalt Sulphate Spot Price on May 16] The SMM cobalt sulphate index price was 49,079 yuan/mt, down 17 yuan/mt from the previous working day. The spot price of cobalt sulphate ranged from 48,400 to 50,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous working day. Supply side, smelters of cobalt salt have slightly loosened their quotations recently. Demand side, downstream enterprises are still dominated by wait-and-see sentiment, and cobalt sulphate transactions have been extremely mediocre recently.

【SMM Review】Lead concentrate imports in March 2025 reached 116,000 mt, up 14.18% MoM and up 59.69% YoY.

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis SMM April 17 News: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 1,635 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,720 yuan/mt, a low of 19,625 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,645 yuan/mt, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 97,300 lots, and the open interest was 218,000 lots. SMM Review: On the macro front, yesterday, the US White House imposed a tariff hike of 245% on certain Chinese goods, to which China responded with indifference. Although the market expressed concerns, there was no widespread panic. Recently, due to the tariff issue, both US inflation and unemployment rates have risen. Under dual pressure, Fed Chairman Powell stated that more definitive data is needed before considering the next interest rate cut, leaving the monetary policy outlook uncertain. On the supply side, although the operating capacity of aluminum increased in April, the domestic capacity ceiling limited significant growth. Weekly aluminum ingot inventory dropped sharply by 35,000 mt, and the accelerated destocking continues to provide strong support for the bottom of aluminum prices. On the demand side, the market showed a wait-and-see sentiment under the tariff impact, but new orders from end-users increased slightly after the aluminum price decline, and the purchasing power of processing enterprises rebounded, with aluminum outflows from warehouses performing well. Overall, the rebound in non-ferrous metals was supported by easing macro sentiment, and the continuous destocking of aluminum inventory underpinned aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintained a fluctuating trend, and future attention should be paid to tariff policy adjustments and the export situation of aluminum semis and end-users. Today, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,825 mt or 0.65%, and the accelerated destocking continues to provide strong support for the bottom of aluminum prices. On the demand side, the market showed a wait-and-see sentiment under the tariff impact, but new orders from end-users increased slightly after the aluminum price decline, and the purchasing power of processing enterprises rebounded, with aluminum outflows from warehouses performing well. Overall, the rebound in non-ferrous metals was supported by easing macro sentiment, and the continuous destocking of aluminum inventory underpinned aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintained a fluctuating trend, and future attention should be paid to tariff policy adjustments and the export situation of aluminum semis and end-users. Today, the most-traded SHFE alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,872 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,910 yuan/mt, a low of 2,872 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,884 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. The trading volume was 130,000 lots, and the open interest was 168,000 lots. SMM Review: Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina continued to decline, dropping to 82.88 million mt/year this week. The tightening of alumina supply in the short term slowed the decline in alumina prices, and there was a slight rebound in northern alumina prices. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound, and the expectation of a looser alumina supply remains. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuating adjustments. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]