Dear Users, Greetings! Thank you for your continued attention and support for Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)! The SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price has now been officially launched. The price assessment methodology is described as follows. I. SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a fully independent third-party service provider. SMM does not participate in any substantive transactions but maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in its capacity as a market observer or organizer, and provides relevant services to the market. Through communication and exchanges with industry professionals, SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry, and giving equal attention to all normal transactions that meet specification standards. SMM reserves the right to exclude from its price assessments any price data or information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative. SMM reports daily spot transaction prices in China's spot market, commonly referred to as SMM prices. SMM prices are generated strictly in accordance with defined methodologies. SMM has methodology definitions for all metal product prices it reports. All methodologies and definitions are published on SMM's official website (www.smm.cn) so that all market participants can understand the processes and standards of SMM price reporting. The SMM price assessment methodology serves as the basis and foundation for the generation of SMM prices. To reflect the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to its price assessment methodology. Any changes to the price assessment methodology will be published on SMM's official website at least 30 days in advance. Any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the price assessment methodology may be directed to SMM client services as published on the website. This document specifies the standards and management methods for the formulation of the SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price. The purpose of establishing this standard is to create a transparent and verifiable SMM pricing mechanism and to provide market participants with an important pricing benchmark. II. Formation of the SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price 2.1. Definition The SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price is an indicative price formed and published by SMM in accordance with this methodology, which can be used by both parties to a transaction as a reference for the settlement of imported recycled crude lead spot trades. This price reflects: the duty-paid self pick-up price of imported recycled crude lead at major seaports on each business day in China's spot market; major seaports include Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou, etc.; lead content ≥98%, with defined antimony and tin content (tin 0.1–0.25%; antimony 0.1–0.35%). 2.2. Introduction to Price Formation SMM collects data for evaluating imported secondary crude lead spot prices through price collection (i.e., collecting raw data information that meets SMM standards), including quotations from buyers and sellers for transactions not concluded on the previous day provided by price submitters (i.e., data providers), actual spot transaction prices, expected quotations or % change for imported secondary crude lead on the day, etc. The SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price aims to guide the quotation range of the imported secondary crude lead market for the day. The data collection and evaluation (calculation) of the SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price, as well as daily management, are carried out by the SMM secondary lead business team (consisting of three members: Position A, Position B, and a price manager). 2.3. Generation of Pricing Methodology SMM price collection personnel collect prices from price collection contacts at price submitters every day from 9:00 to 11:30 (each trading day, consistent with SHFE trading days) via telephone, QQ, and WeChat, gathering intended prices, transaction prices, and related data for imported secondary crude lead at China's major seaports (price data submitted after 11:30 will not be used as a basis for the day's price evaluation). All instant messaging content, email communications, and records of any face-to-face communications will be archived, and details of telephone communications will be summarized and entered into the database. All paper records must be signed by price collection personnel and retained permanently. SMM price analysts collect price data in accordance with price collection standards, and combine the preliminary price data results with the corresponding market's spot conditions, futures conditions, policies, industry status, market transactions, supply and demand relationships, inventory levels, as well as other significant political, economic, and natural factors, to ultimately derive a preliminary raw dataset. SMM price analysts must comply with relevant SMM compliance policies when reporting to their supervisors any communications from market participants that are coerced or threatened, or any induced offers attempting to influence evaluation results. 2.4 Price Publication The SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price is published at 11:40 Beijing time on each trading day on the SMM official website in both Chinese and English. (Excluding China's statutory holidays and weekends.) The deadline for price collection is 11:30 AM, and the 10-minute period between 10:30 and 10:40 is used for data verification and evaluation to calculate the final published secondary lead spot price. SMM encourages price submitters not to wait until the final deadline to submit data, in order to ensure that SMM price analysts have sufficient time to verify the data before incorporating it into the valuation process. The release time may also be affected by various emergencies and force majeure factors, such as power outages and natural disasters. If such situations occur, SMM will make every effort to publicly inform the market of the delayed price release time as early as possible. Prices published by SMM are available to any client who has subscribed to SMM services. Prices published by SMM are copyright-protected and may not be distributed or used for commercial gain by any third party that has not entered into an explicit agreement with SMM. III. Methodology Changes All markets evolve, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that its market-specific methodologies evolve in tandem. Therefore, based on industry feedback, SMM will periodically conduct internal reviews of the appropriateness of its methodologies and make modifications to all substantive but non-urgent potential issues. SMM will follow a formal external consultation process before publishing significant changes, providing a notice period of at least 28 days and inviting industry participants to comment, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, wars, exchange bankruptcies, etc.), necessitate a shortened notice period. SMM is committed to carefully reviewing all comments submitted regarding methodology changes, but in certain cases, it may be necessary to make changes to the methodology against the wishes of some market participants. In addition, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. We are fully aware of the importance of price information to industry development and will therefore continue to invest resources to ensure that the guidance prices we publish maintain a high level of accuracy and timeliness. We also welcome valuable opinions and suggestions from users to work together with us in promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the lead alloy market. Best regards! SMM Industry Research - Lead & Zinc Category Apr 2026
Apr 29, 2026 15:29Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.
Apr 14, 2026 20:08[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: post-holiday aluminum price rebound, alloy enterprises still feel the holiday vibe] after the chinese new year holiday, the secondary aluminum alloy market will gradually shift from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand, stable prices" to a phase of resuming production and recovering demand. since the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer than last year, most enterprises resumed operations between the eighth and fifteenth day of the first lunar month. the pace of supply release in the first week after the holiday is expected to be slow, providing some support to prices; however, the recovery on the demand side is likely to be more gradual, with downstream purchases remaining cautious and need-based until terminal orders show a significant increase. the cost side requires continuous attention to fluctuations in the prices of aluminum scrap, copper, silicon, and other auxiliary materials, as the trend of primary aluminum remains a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. overall, in the early post-holiday period, the adc12 price is likely to continue the sideways movement pattern seen before the holiday. the subsequent direction will depend on the match between supply and demand after full production resumptions and the performance of primary aluminum prices. if there is a restocking phase combined with a strong run of primary aluminum, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure but will generally remain in a sideways movement.
Feb 24, 2026 08:58[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Market Enters Holiday Mode with Prices Mainly Stable, Post-Holiday Recovery Awaited] Post-holiday price trends will return to the interplay between supply-demand and cost factors. If enterprises maintain a normal pace of production resumptions while downstream order recovery falls short of expectations, the price center risks declining under pressure. If phased restocking occurs after the holiday, coupled with primary aluminum prices holding up well, ADC12 prices are expected to see a corrective rebound. Overall, before end-use demand shows substantial improvement, prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the initial post-holiday period, still moving within the pre-holiday range, with direction depending on the strength of demand recovery and the performance of primary aluminum prices.
Feb 13, 2026 09:07[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Softening US Economy Coupled with Tense Middle East Situation, Domestic Low Inventory Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well] Macro side, the softening US economic data and tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East have made the market nervous. US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending remained supported by robust wage growth. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic primary aluminum remained stable, and the reduction in casting ingot volume has kept domestic aluminum ingot inventory in a state of destocking. Cost side, there are expectations of weaker prices for alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for primary aluminum. Demand side, it faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingot in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices may hold up well in the short term.
Jun 18, 2025 09:02[SMM Adds New 9990 Magnesium Ingot CIF (Netherlands) Price] To promote the international trade of magnesium ingots, help upstream and downstream enterprises worldwide better grasp market dynamics, obtain timely spot market information, reduce cross-border transaction risks and costs, and deepen research on the magnesium ingot industry chain, SMM will add and publish a new 9990 magnesium ingot CIF (Netherlands) price point starting from June 19, based on comprehensive market surveys, to provide references for the international market.
Jun 13, 2025 14:58To better serve industry clients and more closely align with the market, SMM plans to add 6 copper scrap price assessments for the US region, which will be officially launched on April 24, 2026. Shang
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