South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has proposed expanding the country’s automotive incentive framework to include minerals used in electric-vehicle battery manufacturing, supporting deeper localisation of the domestic automotive and battery-material supply chains. Under the proposal, the existing list of eligible standard materials including aluminium, steel and platinum-group metals would be expanded to cover lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, iron and rare earths. Eligible materials would need to originate from member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) or Southern African Development Community (SADC). The proposed framework would recognise 50% of the value of qualifying EV battery materials as local content, potentially improving producers’ eligibility for automotive-sector incentives. The policy aligns with the South African Automotive Master Plan 2035, which aims to increase vehicle production, local content and investment as the industry transitions toward electric mobility. Stakeholders were given four weeks from the notice date to submit comments, meaning the final scope and implementation schedule remain subject to consultation. SMM comments: The proposal represents a demand-side approach to developing Africa’s battery supply chain, contrasting with Zimbabwe’s supply side policy of restricting concentrate exports to force domestic processing. If implemented, South Africa could emerge as a regional battery material processing or manufacturing hub sourcing feedstock from neighbouring SADC producers, including Zimbabwe and Namibia. However, the near-term impact on regional lithium trade flows is likely to be limited. Major Zimbabwean lithium assets including Arcadia, Bikita and Sabi Star are controlled by Chinese companies with established China-linked processing and offtake arrangements. It also remains unclear whether spodumene concentrate would qualify directly as an eligible battery material or whether further conversion into lithium sulphate, carbonate or hydroxide would be required. The final rules should therefore be monitored alongside Zimbabwe’s planned January 2027 lithium concentrate export deadline, as the two policies could influence future investment and trade flows within Southern Africa.

Manono Lithium’s first CEEC certified spodumene concentrate shipment departed Mutowa Port, near Kalemie, for Kigoma, Tanzania, on July 22, marking the Democratic Republic of Congo’s first official lithium export. The multimodal route comprises road transport over approximately 440-500 km from Manono via Nyunzu to Mutowa, lake shipment aboard roughly 2,000-tonne vessels across Lake Tanganyika to Kigoma, and onward rail and/or road transport over approximately 1,250 km through Tanzania’s Central Corridor to Dar es Salaam. The cargo is expected to pass through the Malindi Terminal before ocean shipment to China. The new Tabora-Kigoma standard-gauge railway remains under construction. The shipment’s volume, grade, value, buyer and final Chinese discharge port were not disclosed. Mutowa Port is still under construction, with initial annual capacity planned at 1 million tonnes and potential expansion to 1.8 million tonnes. Manono’s planned annual spodumene concentrate output is approximately 1 million tonnes. SMM comments: The shipment confirms the technical feasibility of the Manono Mutowa Kigoma corridor but does not yet demonstrate stable, large scale export capacity. Future throughput and delivered cost competitiveness will depend on port completion, road conditions, lakevessel availability, Tanzanian inland transport capacity and coordination across multiple transshipment points.

July 21 , 2026 Customs data shows that in June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports totaled 112,396 mt, up 76.03% MoM and up 379.7% YoY. In January-June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports amounted to 283,400 mt, up 109.76% YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) Aluminum stranded wire (76149000): Monthly exports hit a new high of 96,000 mt For aluminum stranded wire, domestic exports reached 96,385 mt in June, up 91.9% MoM, with a net increase of 46,161 mt from May’s 50,224 mt. This figure far exceeded the upbeat forecast in the May analysis. The share of aluminum stranded wire in total exports climbed further from 78.7% in May to 85.8%, marking the third consecutive month above the 50% threshold and a continued rise, reflecting the concentrated delivery of orders secured during the earlier export profit window. ACSR (76141000): up 17.5% MoM For ACSR, June exports were 16,011 mt, up 17.5% MoM, with a net increase of 2,384 mt from May’s 13,627 mt. ACSR exports rebounded for the second consecutive month, but the growth rate was far behind the explosive growth of aluminum stranded wire, and its share of total exports contracted further from 21.3% in May to 14.2%. Export destination analysis for aluminum stranded wire: The June growth mainly came from two directions. First, volume expansion in traditional markets. South Korea (+16,763 mt) and Japan (+6,682 mt) together contributed 43.8% of the top 15 destinations’ incremental volume. Exports to Hong Kong, China surged 403% MoM, very likely driven by traders shipping goods in bulk via Hong Kong for re-export. Second, the emergence of new markets. Serbia (3,134 mt) and the UAE (2,498 mt) started from zero. Europe and the Middle East began to appear on the export map of aluminum stranded wire. Taiwan, China, although having a base of 99 mt in May, jumped to 2,506 mt in June, surging over 24-fold, which also deserves attention. Export destination analysis for ACSR: In June, ACSR was exported to 58 countries and regions, with export concentration remaining high: the top 10 destinations accounted for 14,385 mt, or 89.8% of total exports. Unlike the broad-based surge in aluminum stranded wire, ACSR exports were still dominated by traditional markets, with Saudi Arabia firmly in first place at 5,371 mt (33.5% share). SMM comments : June aluminum wire exports hit another new monthly record at 112,400 mt. The key driver remained the concentrated delivery in June of massive orders locked in during the earlier window of favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Looking ahead, some remaining orders secured at fixed prices will still be delivered in July, but many producers reported contract cancellations. Aluminum wire exports in July are expected to trend downward; although down sharply from June’s peak, they will remain above normal levels, reflecting the lagged delivery effect of earlier orders. If the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets does not recover significantly in August-September, the export window for aluminum stranded wire will be hard to reopen, and China's aluminum stranded wire exports will return to a normalized range of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Overall, June 2026 is very likely to be the peak month for aluminum wire exports for the full year. H2 exports will undergo a transition from high levels to normal levels. With cumulative exports of 283,000 mt in January-June as the base, H2 exports will gradually return to a normal average of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Full-year exports are expected to reach 420,000-480,000 mt, still representing significant growth over 2025, but the growth rate will slow markedly in H2.

SMM, July 21: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,160 yuan/mt, edging up 0.56% intraday. Trading volume was 204,700 lots, significantly higher than the previous 113,000 lots. Volume expanded during the rally and contracted on the pullback, indicating limited willingness to chase prices higher, with heavy selling pressure from trapped longs overhead. Open interest was 261,900 lots, up by 572 lots, with divergence among funds widening slightly and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifying. No one-sided capital exit signal emerged. The 5-, 10-, 20-, and 40-period moving averages were intertwined, and prices consolidated tightly around these averages, exhibiting a classic box-type consolidation pattern. SMM comments: Macro front, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate. On July 17, the US military continued airstrikes against Iran, while Iran launched large-scale strikes on US targets in Kuwait and Syria and attacked US military-related facilities in Bahrain. Middle East tensions remained volatile, market concerns over rate hikes persisted, and supply continued to recover, but the destocking trend was hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of production resumptions and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and domestic downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data. Today, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract closed at 2,727 yuan/mt, up 0.78% intraday. Trading volume was 230,800 lots, down from 449,200 lots in the previous day's surge, with shrinking volume and fading upward momentum, indicating a lack of upward drive. Open interest was 306,900 lots, a decline of 24,200 lots, reflecting short-term exit by bulls; open interest fell from 330,000 lots to 306,900 lots in consecutive reductions. During the rebound, bulls actively took profits, revealing weak confidence in further gains. After the downtrend was reversed, short-term moving averages turned bullish, but the medium- and long-term moving averages remained downward, characterizing the move as a corrective rebound after the decline; a reversal has not been confirmed. SMM comments: Currently, the nationwide total alumina inventory edged up MoM, with limited overall fluctuations. By segment, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because spot prices remained at relatively high levels, prompting downstream smelters to slow their procurement pace of high-priced raw materials and rely more on drawing down in-factory inventories. Alumina refinery inventories edged up slightly, but this was offset by maintenance-related production cuts at some Shanxi enterprises and the release of new capacity in south China, limiting the overall increase. At ports, inventories rose as new cargoes arrived. Warrant inventories continued to decline as billing issues and a narrowing spread between futures and spot prices reduced the willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. In-transit and terminal inventories accumulated, mainly as previously expired warrants were released as spot cargoes, coupled with continuous shipments from Guangxi, boosting supply in circulation. The short-term operating pattern of the alumina market is expected to remain largely unchanged. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to tight ore supply, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and inventory levels will likely remain near current levels. Price-wise, as regional spot supply mismatches gradually ease, the spot price center may edge down slightly, with prices facing pressure going forward. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]