[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.

At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

[SMM Analysis: The "Counter-Cyclical" Logic of Copper Smelting: When Sulfuric Acid Becomes the Main Product]

This week (March 6–12), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 66.59, up 5.69 points MoM and down 10.62 points YoY. The operating rate steadily rebounded this week, mainly due to a slight correction in copper prices that drove order release, coupled with support from concentrated power grid deliveries, though the current pace of order recovery remained weaker than in the same period last year. By sector, orders from the power segment continued to support enterprise production schedules, orders from the new energy segment also improved, while construction project orders remained weak, dragging on overall operating rates. Inventory side, the correction in copper prices drove enterprises to restock for rigid demand, but as enterprises maintained production schedules, days of raw material inventories fell 0.31 days MoM this week; for finished product inventories, the correction in copper prices boosted downstream consumption, but high copper prices still restrained end-user purchase willingness, so days of finished product inventories fell 0.41 days MoM. Looking ahead to next week, current orders on hand from the power and new energy sectors will continue to provide the main support for production scheduling. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable next week (March 13–19) to increase 3.45 points MoM to 70.04, down 4.49 points YoY.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Meanwhile, import losses have narrowed substantially, and there are signs that the import window is about to open. If the window opens, it will bring in cargo from outside China, increasing pressure on spot supply in China and creating potential downward pressure on premiums. On the demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices, but intraday, some downstream enterprises were seen to have limited acceptance of spot cargo with high premiums, with procurement turning more cautious. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. As SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, the shift in the price spread between futures contracts is expected to result in high premiums against the front-month contract, though this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at elevated levels next Monday.