Dalian iron ore futures remained in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 807.5 yuan/mt, down 0.55% from the previous trading day. Spot prices saw limited transactions, falling by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders offered quotes in line with the market, while steel mills remained cautious and on the sidelines, with some purchasing as needed. According to the SMM survey, as of March 19, total inventory across the 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 119.62 million mt, up 630,000 mt MoM. Inventory trends diverged among mainstream products, with notable destocking in IOCJ fines and Newman fines. Inventory of Jimblebar fines also declined slightly. In addition, inventory of PB fines and Mac fines increased slightly. In the short term, improved fundamental demand for iron ore provided support to futures prices. However, close attention should be paid to tomorrow's long-term contract negotiations and the impact of the Middle East conflict, both of which could have a significant effect on iron ore prices.

[SMM Brief Review of Tin Futures: A Strong US Dollar Coupled with Confirmed Hawkish Signals Sent Tin Prices Sharply Lower, Breaking Below the 350,000-yuan Mark]

[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....

SMM News, March 19: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 19, copper inventories in SMM's major regions nationwide fell 8.85% WoW from last Thursday, while total inventories increased 176,700 mt YoY from the same period last year, with all regions posting destocking. By region, copper cathode inventories in Shanghai continued to decline, as arrivals of domestic material gradually decreased after the end of delivery, while warehouse withdrawals gradually exceeded warehouse inflows amid consumption support; in Jiangsu, inventories also continued to destock, as demand in northern China recovered, arrivals of domestic material decreased, and local consumption rebounded; in Guangdong, inventories also trended downward, supported by a marked recovery in downstream demand and slightly tighter supply. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported material continued to arrive at ports, but arrivals of domestic material decreased due to the end of delivery; on the demand side, the sharp pullback in copper prices clearly stimulated downstream procurement. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain tight next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to continue destocking.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, after the Two Sessions concluded, operating rates at coke producers increased somewhat, and shipments improved. Inventory pressure eased for most coke producers, with supply remaining stable while increasing slightly. Demand side, blast furnaces in Hebei resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments picked up, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm and strengthening their purchase willingness for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals improved, but the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.

SMM, March 19: This week, Chinese aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,180-10,450 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of key raw materials for aluminum fluoride continued to rise. Specifically, the delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder remained stable, currently concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. During the Two Sessions, mining at northern mines was restricted, leading to a temporary tight supply of fluorite raw ore; some beneficiation plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm due to relatively low inventory levels, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises slightly recovered in operating demand after resuming work following the holiday. SMM expected fluorite prices to hold up well in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged up steadily, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,673 yuan/mt, up 1.52% WoW. The sulphuric acid market remained firm, and prices continued to rise amid higher costs, tightening supply, and strong demand. Overall, the raw material side of aluminum fluoride moved higher, and production pressure on enterprises increased significantly. Supply side showed a pattern of rigid cost increases, deeply pressured profitability, and weak willingness to operate. Recently, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite, sulphuric acid, and aluminum hydroxide continued to rise, significantly pushing up aluminum fluoride production costs. The industry was caught in a squeeze from both costs and selling prices, with enterprises generally operating at a loss. Production enthusiasm was hit hard, overall industry operating rates remained in the doldrums, and actual supply increases were limited. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity downstream remained stable, forming a rigid demand base for aluminum fluoride; however, enterprises mainly restocked for rigid demand and purchased as needed, with cautious procurement and insufficient demand elasticity to boost prices. Brief comment: This week, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid held up well, and the cost side continued to rise, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises; in March, the aluminum fluoride tender price of a downstream benchmark enterprise was finalized, down 200-370 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot market also moved in the doldrums under its guidance. At present, the industry is facing a two-way squeeze of rising costs and selling prices under pressure, narrowing profit margins and dampening production enthusiasm. Fundamentally: Cost side: fluorite and sulphuric acid prices remained firm, providing clear bottom support for aluminum fluoride. Supply side: industry operating rates stayed in the doldrums, with no significant increase in production, and overall supply and demand remained subdued. Demand side: rigid demand from aluminum remained stable, but there was no obvious incremental growth, and procurement was mainly as needed. Overall, the strong support effect from fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side became more prominent, coupled with low industry operating rates and shrinking supply. Aluminum fluoride's price center is expected to move steadily higher next month, showing a mild strengthening trend. Going forward, close and continuous attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.