[SMM Brief] SHFE data showed that on April 29, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 32,624 mt, an increase of 421 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai registered 1,822 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 10,878 mt (down 30 mt), Jiangsu 4,769 mt (up 392 mt), Zhejiang 9,506 mt (up 59 mt), Chongqing 4,143 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,506 mt (unchanged).

DCE iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 786.5 yuan/mt, up 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose in tandem by 1-3 yuan/mt. Traders quoted actively, steel mills restocked on demand, and overall spot trading sentiment was moderate. According to an SMM survey, daily average hot metal production at 242 sample steel mills was 2.4494 million mt this week, up 5,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead to next week, hot metal production is expected to dip slightly and move sideways after peaking. In addition, BHP announced the conclusion of annual benchmark negotiations last night. Although some details emerged in the market today, whether port spot cargoes of restricted grades will see short-term release remains to be confirmed. Overall, the impact of this event is gradually fading, with limited effect on prices. However, given that the month-end Politburo meeting may reinforce anti-involution policy expectations, and supported by rigid restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend on the stronger side.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading today before slowly pulling back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.49% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were mediocre in offering quotations, while steel mills restocked as needed; overall transactions in the spot market were limited. Fundamentals, according to the SMM survey, port inventories began to decline slightly this week, with total inventory across 35 ports nationwide down 610,000 mt WoW to 155.78 million mt, a decrease of 0.39%. Meanwhile, port pick-up volume increased by 110,000 mt WoW to 2.855 million mt. Although support below ore prices gradually strengthened along with the pace of hot metal production resumptions, supply side still faced the risk of further increases as weather-related disruptions eased and iron ore returning from the Middle East arrived in China. Overall, upward pressure on ore prices had not yet eased significantly, and with downside support gradually strengthening, prices were expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore was generally weak today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 1.83% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders actively offered quotes, while steel mills mainly made inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand, with cautious inquiries; overall, the spot market trading atmosphere was average. According to the latest SMM survey data, hot metal daily average production reached 2.4049 million mt this week, an increase of 15,000 mt WoW, with demand showing a steady improvement. In terms of supply, some iron ore originally planned for shipment to the Middle East began to be redirected to the Chinese market, including some ore grades used for direct reduced iron (DRI), increasing market supply options and putting some pressure on prices. From a macro perspective, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and the escalation of war triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, driving up global inflationary pressure. Expectations for US dollar interest rate cuts weakened significantly, leading to a certain pullback in commodity prices, including iron ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices faced strong resistance in the short term, but downside room was limited, and the market is expected to continue moving in a sideways range.