Q.ENEST Holdings has completed a JPY 9 billion syndicated loan arranged by SMBC to fund an 80MW portfolio of low-voltage distributed PV assets across Japan. The financing was structured through an SPC and will be drawn down in stages over around one year as assets are acquired, with the first drawdown covering existing plants. Q.ENEST Denki, the group’s retail power unit, will act as the offtaker, supplying fixed-price green electricity to residential and corporate customers. The deal highlights growing financing interest in Japan’s distributed PV assets, supported by integrated generation, retail offtake and hedging models.

[US Lithium Mine Development Boom: From One Mine to Over 100 Planned Projects by 2030] The US lithium industry is standing at the threshold of a historic transformation, about to leap from its current status of having only one producing lithium mine to becoming a significant participant in the global critical battery metals market. Currently, only one lithium mine is operating across the entire US, but this landscape is about to change rapidly. By 2030, at least six new projects are expected to come into production successively, with another 13 projects close behind. This round of expansion is primarily concentrated in the geologically favorable arid regions of the Southwest, but this is merely the beginning of a potential mining boom. According to the latest industry data, enterprises have identified over 100 potential lithium ore extraction areas nationwide. Behind this aggressive expansion is the continued climb in lithium ore demand from EV batteries and renewable energy ESSs—both of which are indispensable key elements of the energy transition. The rapid expansion of lithium mining scale has raised important questions from the outside world about environmental impacts, water resource consumption, and how to strike a balance between domestic mineral security and ecological protection. In this race for self-sufficient supply of "white gold," community residents and environmental protection advocates are closely watching how this industrial transformation will advance and take shape in some of America's most fragile desert ecosystems. Source: https://www.envirolink.org [Lithium Ore Reserves in Eastern US States May Replace Over a Century of Import Demand] U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists announced this discovery, estimating its scale sufficient to replace over three hundred years of lithium import demand. The US currently relies on imports for nearly half of its lithium consumption, a dependency that has long been a concern for energy security analysts. Lithium occupies a central position in the modern economy, serving as a critical material for lithium-ion batteries used in smartphones, laptops, EVs, and aerospace alloys. Against the backdrop of accelerating global demand and intensifying geopolitical pressures, domestic reserves of this scale carry significant strategic importance. This discovery came at a sensitive period in the global mineral landscape. Australia currently supplies nearly half of global lithium production, while China not only has considerable production but also dominates global refining and consumption. Thirty years ago, the US was the world's largest lithium producer, but that position was long since relinquished. Whether this discovery can help the US return to that position remains to be seen, but the scale of data cited is sufficient to warrant serious attention. The scale of this discovery is most vivid in numbers. According to USGS estimates, the reserves are sufficient to support the construction of 1.6 million grid-scale batteries, and officials stated they could power 130 million EVs or support 180 billion laptops running cumulatively for a thousand years. USGS also estimates that the reserves could support the production of 500 billion mobile phones, equivalent to approximately 60 devices for every person currently on Earth. Perhaps the most striking figure in the USGS assessment is this: measured against last year's consumption levels, the reserves are sufficient to replace 328 years of US lithium import demand. This is not a forecast of future demand, but merely a baseline comparison between existing underground reserves and historical US import demand. Source: https://indiandefencereview.com [European Metals' Cinovec Lithium Mine Project EIA Passes Czech Ministry of Environment Review] European Metals Holdings Limited (ASX/AIM: EMH) announced that its flagship Cinovec lithium mine project in the Czech Republic has achieved a significant milestone in environmental permitting. The Czech Ministry of Environment has completed its review and officially released the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report, with a public hearing scheduled to be held in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, a cross-border EIA process involving German authorities has been formally initiated to address the transnational impacts of the project along the Czech-German border. For investors tracking the development progress of the Cinovec project, these developments are not routine updates — the company has explicitly identified the EIA release as a critical path period for obtaining final approval and advancing the project to implementation. "We are pleased with the progress the project team has made on environmental permitting for the Cinovec project. The release of the EIA report by the Czech Ministry of Environment is a critical path period for obtaining final EIA approval and advancing the Cinovec project." — Executive Chairman Keith Coughlan Source: [Latin America's Lithium Supply Gap: Structural Barriers Constraining Capacity Release] The global energy transition is built on a series of assumptions, and one of the most consequential is that the world's largest lithium reserves, concentrated in a narrow strip of South America, will be able to reliably convert into the battery-grade lithium materials increasingly and urgently needed for EVs, power grid ESSs, and consumer electronics. However, this assumption is being put to a severe test. Latin America's lithium supply gap is not a matter of salt flats being depleted or aquifers running dry, but rather a widening chasm between underground reserves and market-accessible capacity. Reserves are abundant, yet production-ready capacity falls far short. More critically, this gap continues to widen at a pivotal moment when global demand is accelerating its climb. To understand the root causes, one must look beyond the surface figures and examine in depth the structural mechanisms behind the entire chain from lithium geological deposits to battery cathode material. Source:

First, multi-material indexation has become normal practice in domestic cell pricing. However, passing these costs through to project owners is far from smooth. Second, the adjustment cycle in overseas markets is shortening. Yet even a lithium-carbonate-only linkage faces resistance at the owner level. Third, cost pressure is concentrating heavily at the integration stage.

[Siemens Partners with Vulcan Energy to Expand Sustainable Lithium Supply in Europe] Siemens has joined forces with Vulcan Energy to advance Europe's first fully integrated lithium and renewable energy project. The two companies signed a framework agreement for the Lionheart lithium and renewable energy project in the Upper Rhine Valley, Germany. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), making Siemens the preferred supplier of automation and digitalization technologies for Vulcan Energy through 2035. Vulcan's preferred partnership with Siemens will extend from Lionheart to future development phases. The Lionheart project involves the construction of an integrated lithium and renewable energy project with a target capacity of 24,000 mt of lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM), sufficient to supply approximately 500,000 EV batteries per year, while providing local consumers with 275 Gwh of renewable electricity and 560 Gwh of thermal energy annually, with a projected project lifespan of 30 years. Roland Busch (pictured above), President and CEO of Siemens AG, stated: "As a strategic investor and key technology partner, we are helping Vulcan Energy establish Europe's first major sustainable lithium source. With our technologies — from advanced automation and digitalization to smart building solutions — we help ramp up production faster. This is critical for creating a local lithium supply for our energy transition and for building a more competitive, resilient, and sustainable European industry. This is a powerful example of boosting growth and competitiveness in line with the 'Made in Germany' initiative." Source: https://theenergyst.com/ [Argentina's Lithium Sector Gains Strategic Development Boost from Chinese Partners] The arrangements bringing Chinese partners into Argentina's lithium sector are fundamentally reshaping the critical minerals landscape in South America, as international cooperation has become indispensable for addressing complex supply chain demands and capital-intensive development requirements. These partnerships demonstrate how strategic alliances can accelerate project advancement while sharing technical and financial risks across complementary capabilities. Moreover, the success of these collaborative models signals a broader transformation underway in global mining operations — one in which technological expertise and market access often matter more than traditional resource ownership structures. Chinese enterprises have fundamentally altered the investment architecture of Argentina's lithium mine industry through systematic capital deployment strategies that prioritize vertical integration over speculative resource positioning. This approach reflects broader supply chain security objectives rather than purely financial returns, resulting in distinctive partnership structures that are markedly different from traditional Western mining investment models. The investment patterns emerging in northwestern Argentina demonstrate a sophisticated risk allocation mechanism between international partners and local operators. Chinese enterprises typically structure their participation through phased equity arrangements, starting with technical cooperation and gradually evolving into controlling positions based on development milestones. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Mangrove Launches North America's First Commercial Lithium Refining Facility] Mangrove Lithium, a Canadian venture capital-backed private enterprise, launched North America's first commercial lithium refining facility in British Columbia. This marked a significant step toward establishing a secure domestic lithium supply chain for the Canadian and North American markets, supporting the continent's electrification goals. Mangrove's facility uses the company's proprietary electrochemical technology to convert extracted lithium into battery-grade materials, offering a more economical, flexible, and sustainable approach compared to traditional chemical methods. The plant has a nameplate capacity of 1,000 mt/year, capable of producing enough battery-grade lithium to support the production of approximately 25,000 EV units per year. Source: https://www.miningweekly.com/ [Global Lithium Secures Funding to Support Future Development of Manna Project] Global Lithium signed a binding terms list with global battery metals producer Lopal, covering a $7.32 million equity investment and a $75 million (A$104.85 million) offtake prepayment. The funding will accelerate the development of Global Lithium's Manna lithium mine project in Western Australia. Global Lithium also signed a separate binding agreement with a subsidiary of Lopal for the sale of mining and mineral rights interests in its Marble Bar lithium mine project in Western Australia. Lopal will pay A$14.85 million for the project, comprising A$11.85 million in fixed consideration and an additional A$3 million payable upon the granting of the mining lease. Source: https://mining.com.au/

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, April 22: Metals market: As of the overnight close, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME zinc, SHFE zinc, and SHFE nickel rising. LME zinc rose 0.67%, SHFE zinc rose 0.08%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.19%. LME tin led the decline with a 2.01% drop, SHFE tin fell 1.85%, and the remaining metals fell less than 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.35%, and the foundry aluminum main contract fell 0.36%. Overnight ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with stainless steel falling 0.9% and iron ore rising 0.19%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 0.16% and coke rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 1.87% and COMEX silver fell 4.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.66% and SHFE silver fell 3.73%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM, April 22: Macro Front China: [State Council: Support Procurement of Large Language Models and AI Agent Services, Moderately Advance Construction of Mobile IoT] The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry." It mentioned deepening the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, accelerating the R&D and adoption of intelligent programming tools, and supporting the procurement of large language models and AI agent services. It called for accelerating innovation breakthroughs in industrial software, building compatibility adaptation and application demonstration centers for key industry industrial software, strengthening the ecosystem of basic software and open-source communities, and optimizing the smart audio-visual system ecosystem. It also urged deeper promotion of large-scale 5G applications, advancing 5G-A network development, strengthening 6G technology R&D, moderately advancing the construction of mobile IoT, and developing satellite internet application services. (Jin10 Data) [MIIT Responds to Memory Chip Price Increases, Will Take Multiple Measures to Ensure Industry Chain Supply Chain Stability] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on Q1 2026 industrial and information technology development. Xie Cun, spokesperson of MIIT and Director-General of the Department of Information and Communications Development, stated that recent memory chip price increases had triggered price adjustments in mobile phone end-use products, drawing widespread attention. To address this issue, MIIT will take multiple measures to support the development of the memory chip industry and ensure industry chain supply chain stability. On one hand, it will enhance supply capacity, promote supply-demand alignment, encourage both domestic and foreign enterprises to increase investment and boost output capacity, and support end-users and memory chip enterprises in strengthening interaction and expanding diversified supply channels. On the other hand, it will maintain market order through various means, guide memory chip enterprises to strengthen channel management, and cooperate with relevant departments to crack down on market-disrupting activities in accordance with the law. (Securities Times) (Jin10 Data APP) [MIIT: 10G Optical Network Pilot Project Construction Progressing in an Orderly Manner with Good Completion of Pilot Targets] MIIT issued a notice on the completion of 10G optical network pilot projects. Overall, pilot project construction progressed in an orderly manner, with good completion of pilot targets. The 10G optical network achieved pilot deployment in scenarios such as residential communities, factories, and industrial parks, cultivating business applications including cloud computers, cloud gaming, industrial optical quality inspection, AI + ultra-high-definition video surveillance, model training and inference applications, and integrated sensing and communication, providing important references for promoting the transition of 10G optical networks from technical pilots to deployment and application. (MIIT) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.33% to 98.38. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh believed that the US Fed should reduce its reliance on forward guidance and warned that excessive transparency could hinder policy flexibility when circumstances change. He said: "The Fed reveals to the whole world... what their forecasts will be," but "the Fed sticks to its forecasts for too long," a phenomenon related to the Fed's delayed response to surging inflation during the pandemic from 2021 to 2022. In his view, making fewer commitments would help achieve more flexible decision-making, because "if the Fed waits until a meeting to make a decision, then this gradual assessment process can prevent the central bank from making repeated mistakes." He viewed this as part of a broader reform agenda, adding: "I believe these changes are very necessary, and if confirmed, I look forward to implementing them." (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended a Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of pursuing "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts" in parallel: at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the Fed's balance sheet size, withdrawing from quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its core monetary policy role; at the interest rate level, although no explicit commitment was made, his statements already indicated an inclination toward interest rate cuts. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of de-globalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate were scheduled for release today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution. According to media reports, the US and Iran plan to hold talks in Pakistan on Wednesday. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together, with WTI up 3.2% and Brent up 3.75%, as prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks appeared dim. Between 3:35 and 4:10 Beijing time, WTI and Brent traced an N-shaped pattern with a swing of over $4 in roughly half an hour — prices surged on reports that US and Iranian representatives had canceled plans to head to Pakistan, then briefly erased gains when Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement. (Jinshi Data APP) A research report from CITIC Securities Construction Investment noted that the repeated fluctuations in the Strait of Hormuz situation indicate that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market continues to unfold along a three-stage logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, suggesting the situation has not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the US-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is currently still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolve in three stages: rates rise during the conflict period; vessel redeployment lengthens shipping distances and pushes up the freight rate center; and after the blockade is lifted, a scramble for oil may drive rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is bound to transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jinshi Data APP) US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 17 came in at -4.47 million barrels, versus expectations of -1.8 million barrels and a prior reading of 6.101 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its final pit trading at 2:30 on April 22 and its final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for WTI crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note.