Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

Data released by the online customs statistics query platform showed that China’s refined tin imports were 1,101.12 mt in January 2026, down 28.86% MoM and down 52.82% YoY. Indonesia was the largest origin, with refined tin imports from Indonesia at 613.8 mt that month, down 3.53% MoM and down 66.36% YoY. Russia was the second-largest origin, with refined tin imports from Russia at 158.06 mt that month, up 691.52% MoM. Below is a breakdown of China’s refined tin imports in January 2026 compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: 1. Refined tin includes unwrought non-alloy tin (refined tin). 2. The total imports (total) also include data for certain origins not listed in the table above. (Wenhua Composite)

[Futures Zinc Prices Fell Sharply, While Spot Premiums Strengthened During the Week]: Shanghai spot premiums strengthened this week, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract.

SMM News, March 20: This week, secondary refined lead was mostly quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes available for delivered premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Affected by falling lead prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and relatively cautious procurement, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and overall market transactions were sluggish. This week, secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices, easing raw material cost pressure, and losses narrowed WoW; as of March 20, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -337 yuan/mt, versus -541 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (the model's by-product revenue did not include tin and antimony). As smelters that resumed production continued to release capacity, ample supply weighed on lead prices. Combined with the wide range of cargo types available to downstream enterprises, spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to narrow next week, while actual prices will still depend on changes in raw material costs. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Fluctuated Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, geopolitical disruptions were frequent. After the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the market bet on a US Fed rate hike, and LME zinc fell below key levels. Subsequently, bearish factors were gradually digested, and LME zinc rebounded from lows.

SMM News, March 20: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.23, up 0.07 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged sharply. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall buying sentiment in the central China market was high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and there was no downward trend in market quotations. However, the pass-through of prices to downstream enterprises resulted in relatively limited premiums. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at central China prices plus 10 yuan to plus 60 yuan, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at central China prices plus 30 yuan to plus 40 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 3,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.