Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China rose, with a quotation range of 10,550-10,650 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the same-specification stainless steel scrap off-cuts also strengthened, with a price range of 10,050-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,761.4 yuan/mt, while the cost using entirely high-grade NPI reached 15,134.31 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged significantly, driven by SHFE nickel's rally amid geopolitical conflicts, which in turn transmitted to the spot market and pushed stainless steel spot prices higher in tandem. The alternative raw material high-grade NPI also rose in sympathy, bullish sentiment continued to build, and stainless steel scrap prices followed suit, maintaining a strong trend. The recent rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further widened the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI. This core competitive edge continued to drive steel mills' preference for stainless steel scrap even amid persistent tax invoice issues plaguing the industry. Meanwhile, smelting margins at stainless steel mills gradually recovered, production enthusiasm remained high, production schedules stayed high, and procurement demand for stainless steel scrap remained solid, providing firm support for price rises. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a further strengthening pattern characterized by "futures leading, raw material linkage, and demand support." Various supportive factors jointly dominated market trends, and although tax invoice issues persisted, they did not significantly constrain the strong price momentum. Stainless steel scrap prices were expected to hold up well in the near term.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel News, April 30: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive hold this year. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation triggered by tariffs is expected to pull back over the next two quarters. (2) US President Trump said on April 29 that the US and Iran were negotiating by phone, while emphasizing that Iran must clearly commit to completely abandoning nuclear weapons. He will continue the maritime blockade on Iran until Iran agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Spot market: On April 30, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -800-100 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways during the session, closing at 150,540 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.02%. Indonesia's tightening quota policy continued to strengthen, the sulphur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulphur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Surged and Spot Prices Remained Firm, Trading Sluggish as Labour Day Holiday Approached On April 29, SMM reported that SS futures fluctuated upward strongly. Driven by the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS futures maintained a strong trend. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,505 yuan/mt. Spot market side, SS futures continued to fluctuate at highs, boosting stainless steel traders' confidence. Spot offers were generally at relatively high levels, with low-priced resources hard to find. Although the holiday was approaching and rapid price increases made downstream buyers cautious and wait-and-see, with most making just-in-time procurement, trading was slightly sluggish. However, supported by the strong performance of SS futures, spot prices were unlikely to pull back. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and tested higher levels. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,475 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from -5 to 195 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 125 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi offers rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven higher by the surge in SS futures, with spot offers strengthening in tandem and rising to highs not seen since 2023. However, the short-term price increase was relatively rapid and had limited correlation with changes in stainless steel fundamentals, and end-user acceptance remained limited...