Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

SMM, June 10: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,090 yuan/mt on the day. In early trading, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,055-16,095 yuan/mt, dipping to a low of 16,055 yuan/mt. The price then fluctuated higher from mid-session to the close, ending at 16,130 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down 40 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Secondary lead smelters, weighed down by losses, chose to hold prices firm and delay shipments, while the cost of scrap battery raw materials provided bottom-level cost support. Overall end-use market consumption was sluggish; the recovery in consumption during the traditional peak season fell short of market expectations, and downstream enterprises took a conservative approach to procurement and stockpiling. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, lead ingot procurement demand from battery plants remained sluggish, the pace of lead ingot inventory destocking was slow, inventory levels tended to stabilize, and the likelihood of inventory shifting into accumulation later on increased. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, June 4: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,500 yuan/mt during the session. The market was in the doldrums throughout the day, with prices persistently under pressure below the intraday moving average. Prices dipped to a low of 16,390 yuan/mt during the session before rebounding slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,435 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt or 1.26% for the day, forming a bearish candlestick. Dragged down by the collective weakness across non-ferrous metals, SHFE lead futures were under pressure and trended weak during the session. Currently, both primary lead and secondary lead supply continued to increase, suppressing lead prices from the supply side. Coupled with sluggish recovery in end-use demand, SHFE lead prices were under pressure. However, scrap battery raw material costs provided bottom support, effectively limiting the room for deeper declines. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information was derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 29 News: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices briefly moved higher, touching a high of 16,645 yuan/mt, before pulling back in a fluctuating manner. In the later part of the session, prices moved sideways within 16,520-16,540 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,560 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. In June, secondary lead smelters in multiple regions including east China, north China, and south China showed increased intentions to resume production, with regional supply expected to rebound. Meanwhile, some primary lead enterprises in Henan and Hunan remained under maintenance, and combined with reduced arrivals of imported lead, regional lead ingot supply remained tight. Overall, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Demand side, consumption in June was expected to recover compared to May, but the strength of recovery remained to be observed. In the short term, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 27 news: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,745 yuan/mt intraday. Prices fluctuated higher in early trading, touching a high of 16,810 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,770-16,810 yuan/mt range. During this period, the contract tested the 16,800 yuan/mt resistance level multiple times but failed to break through effectively. In the later session, it turned to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,705 yuan/mt. It rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,730 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt or 0.15%. The lead-acid battery industry is currently in the traditional off-season, with weak downstream demand. Combined with the rebound in lead prices, battery manufacturers remained cautious in procurement. Supply side, domestic primary and secondary lead production rebounded slightly; supply and demand outside China diverged, with tight supply of high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia, while Australian smelters gradually ramped up production. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, SHFE lead prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 25: During the session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward in early trading, touching a high of 16,820 yuan/mt, before pulling back under pressure mid-session, dipping to a low of 16,705 yuan/mt, then moving sideways within the 16,715-16,745 yuan/mt range. Prices rebounded slightly near the close but with limited gains, ultimately settling at 16,755 yuan/mt, marking a four-day winning streak, up 20 yuan/mt or 0.12%. Currently, imported lead supplies have shrunk and domestic lead ingot inventory has pulled back, providing fundamental support for lead prices. However, multiple secondary lead enterprises resumed production in late May, with market supply becoming looser MoM from early May, exerting bearish pressure on prices. Overall, lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend with limited upside momentum. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.