SMM, May 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt during the session. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,580-16,625 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by gains on LME, lead prices edged up, touching a high of 16,675 yuan/mt. However, dragged down by continued social inventory buildup in China and weak downstream consumption, prices subsequently pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,590 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. With lead ingot inventory outside China continuing destocking and spot cargo in Southeast Asia remaining persistently tight, LME lead is expected to hold up well overall. Although spot lead prices in China received some support from the strengthening of LME lead, the upward momentum in prices remained relatively limited due to overall weak end-use demand. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 13: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,540 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the 16,530-16,580 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, boosted by stronger LME lead prices and the entry of bullish funds, the market fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,655 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,615 yuan/mt, recording a bullish candlestick with a gain of 35 yuan/mt, or 0.21%. Currently, ongoing environmental protection checks in South China continue to intensify, leading to a phased contraction in regional secondary lead smelting supply, which provides fundamental support for lead prices. On the other hand, primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, suppliers have accelerated lead ingot warehousing for delivery, and social inventory continued its buildup trend, further suppressing upside room for lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 11: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,705 yuan/mt intraday. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,680-16,730 yuan/mt. Affected by relatively loose primary lead supply coupled with weak downstream consumption, lead prices pulled back under pressure near the end of the session, hitting a low of 16,655 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises led to regional tightness in lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase, resulting in relatively loose overall supply. Bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market remained unchanged, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 8 update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt intraday. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,750-16,785 yuan/mt. Subsequently, dragged down by lead ingot inventory buildup, prices fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 16,610 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.65%, recording a small bearish candlestick. Sentiment side, geopolitical tensions outside China resurfaced, tightening the macro atmosphere and driving non-ferrous metals overall under pressure to pull back. Fundamentals side, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded in scope, but the lead-acid battery industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with supply and demand weakening simultaneously. Lead ingot inventory continued to accumulate after the holiday, making it difficult to provide effective support for lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue their pullback, giving back part of the earlier gains. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.