[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,960/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading, dipping to $12,792/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and touched a high of $12,966/mt. It then fluctuated downward and finally closed at $12,859/mt, down 1.29%. Trading volume rose to 27,900 lots, and open interest rose to 305,000 lots, down 953 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,440 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading and bottomed at 100,030 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved sharply higher and climbed to 101,410 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 100,980 yuan/mt, down 0.35%. Trading volume rose to 74,300 lots, and open interest rose to 195,000 lots, down 5,732 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2506 contract tested 79,270 yuan/mt at the opening and began to rise, subsequently testing above 79,230 yuan/mt multiple times. Near the close, it surged to 79,310 yuan/mt and closed at 79,300 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts (BACK) for consecutive months continued to fluctuate within the range of 60-100 yuan/mt, while the import loss for the current month's SHFE copper was approximately 1,400 yuan/mt.

[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as the delivery date approaches, there is no improvement in the price spread between futures contracts. Copper prices remain high, suppressing downstream procurement, and overall trading is weak. However, there is a significant disparity between the current open interest and the available warrants. It is expected that warrants will gradually increase in the latter half of the week.

In the morning session, the front-month contract of SHFE copper showed relatively stable movement, fluctuating rangebound between 78,750 and 78,850 yuan/mt during the main trading hours. The price spread between futures contracts for the next month (BACK) fluctuated by 100 yuan/mt. The import loss continued to widen, prompting domestic smelters to increase their export efforts.

In the morning session, SHFE copper prices fluctuated mainly around 78,380 yuan/mt, touching 78,400 yuan/mt multiple times. After briefly surging to 78,480 yuan/mt in the morning, prices pulled back. The price spread between futures contracts for the next month narrowed from BACK 200 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt during the day. The import loss for the current month's SHFE copper exceeded 1,300 yuan/mt. Keep a close eye on the export trends of smelters.