[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight correction. Shipment sentiment in the central China market improved further today compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at lower premiums, while suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm. Market quotes declined continuously, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before market open to a discount of around 120-140 yuan/mt against the same contract, with the mainstream transaction range being at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

[Inventory Buildup Weighs on Domestic Aluminum Prices; Ex-China Support and Risks Coexist] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum production outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing restrictions have constrained aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

SMM April 20 update: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated downward in early trading, but overall aluminum prices remained at high levels. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment was relatively positive, influenced by declining aluminum prices and wider premiums. Mainstream transactions in the market were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 3.4 today, down 0.32 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.06, flat MoM. SHFE aluminum prices pulled back today, but high aluminum prices still suppressed buying sentiment in the central China market. Downstream processing enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with slight pressure to push for lower prices in actual transactions. However, overall buying sentiment recovered compared to the previous two days. Suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, transaction prices remained stable, and the downward trend was not significant. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between a 20 yuan premium over the central China price and parity. The shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.85 today, flat MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.39, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 28,000 mt MoM today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup.

[Mixed Macro News Signals, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Mainly Fluctuate and Adjust] Overall, the situation in the Middle East remained a key concern. If aluminum smelters in the Middle East further cut production, it is expected to provide upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China. However, China’s social inventory continued to build up, with ample supply available, which is expected to put a ceiling on SHFE aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: The Situation in the Middle East Remained Unclear, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate and Adjust in the Short Term]