SMM June 22 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals broadly fell, with only SHFE aluminum rising 0.4%. SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 1.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.84%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc each dropped 0.7%, and SHFE copper edged down 0.34%. Alumina main contract fell 0.52%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.47%. Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract fell 6.08%, polysilicon main contract fell 0.25%, silicon metal main contract fell 0.58%. The European shipping futures main contract rose 0.11%. On the ferrous metals front, all rose except stainless steel, which gained 0.36%. Hot-rolled coil and iron ore fell around 0.6% each. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 2.24% and coke fell 1.78%. In the overseas market, as of 11:38, overseas base metals rose across the board. LME nickel led the gains with a rise of 1.23%, LME tin climbed 0.88%, LME copper advanced 0.53%, and the other metals had relatively small fluctuations in gains. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.73%. In China, SHFE gold dropped 3.25% and SHFE silver plunged 5.65%. Additionally, platinum main contract fell 4.77% and palladium main contract fell 3.51%. As of 11:38 on June 22, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,495-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream traded at 24,595-24,890 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream traded at 24,425-24,720 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market was quoted at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the contract. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract..... Macro Front Domestically: China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR) as of June 22 was 3%, in line with expectations of 3.00% and unchanged from the previous reading of 3.00%. (Jin10 Data APP) [Cross-regional person-trips during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday expected to exceed 650 million] According to the Ministry of Transport, during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21, 2026), total cross-regional person-trips were estimated at 652.78 million, with a daily average of 217.593 million, flat on a YoY basis. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.88, with the market continuing to follow developments after the US-Iran talks. US federal funds rate futures extended losses, with the implied probability of a US Fed rate hike in September at 76%. On June 19, Citadel Securities released a research report noting that under new Fed Chair Warsh, the US Fed has shifted from inertial decision-making to proactive adaptive policymaking. Citadel Securities warned that the market should not interpret this signal with an inertial mindset. Its core judgment is: the next move is a rate hike, and the hike is likely imminent. Meanwhile, the report emphasized that the Fed will no longer continue the previous market-coddling mode of “pre-communicating the policy path.” This shift carries significant implications for the interest rate market, the US dollar, and equities. Citadel Securities sets its baseline scenario as completing three 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next two years, with the periods being September 2026, December 2026, and March 2027, and regards the July meeting as a “live meeting,” meaning actual action could be taken at any time. The US Fed forecasts the average core PCE in 2026-2027 to exceed the 2% target by around 90 basis points. Based on the inflation gap, Citadel Securities calculates that according to classic monetary policy rules, the policy rate should be 1.5 times the inflation gap above the neutral rate, equating to an additional 135 basis points of tightening. Assuming a neutral rate of 3%, the target policy rate should fall in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, corresponding to exactly three rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 61.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 38.5%. For September, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 24.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 22.9%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Canada’s May CPI month-over-month rate, the eurozone’s June consumer confidence index preliminary, and other data. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures to stabilize and improve foreign investment utilization. ECB President Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament. Fed Governor Waller will deliver welcoming remarks at a conference on the international role of the US dollar. In crude oil: As of 11:38, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 1.24%. Oil prices experienced sharp swings today. Early on, Trump’s renewed threats during negotiations pushed prices sharply higher, and then progress in US-Iran peace talks dragged prices down. Qatar and Pakistan released a joint statement on social media platform X, saying that the first round of high-level US-Iran talks had concluded in Burgenstock, Switzerland. All parties agreed to establish a high-level committee. The chief negotiators will report regularly to the high-level committee and lead working groups on nuclear issues, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. The high-level committee agreed on a roadmap, aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days. To avoid accidents and miscommunication and ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, communication channels were established. They also agreed to set up a de-escalation group to ensure the implementation of the commitment to cease military operations in Lebanon. For the rest of this week, technical talks will continue in Burgenstock, covering all relevant issues. (From Wall Street See APP) Ali Nizar, head of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): Currently, two vessels are loading crude oil at the country's southern terminals, but more ships need to enter the Strait of Hormuz for production to continue rising. (Iraq 24 TV) (From Wall Street See APP) Iran is shipping large volumes of oil that had previously been stranded due to US sanctions, which could get a boost after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington last Wednesday. Shipping data showed that a total of 11 tankers left Iran's Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman last week, collectively carrying 20 million barrels of crude oil. (Bloomberg) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ►

[Ex-China Premium Collapse vs. Accelerated Domestic Destocking, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure in Short-Term Fluctuations] China side, the accelerating destocking pace is a highlight, but absolute inventory remains in a relatively high range. In the absence of new macro positives, SHFE aluminum follows LME aluminum under pressure, but supported by domestic destocking, the decline is relatively controllable. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to be in the doldrums.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

On the last day before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream processing enterprises in central China showed strong buying sentiment. Overall market transactions were relatively active, but actual transaction prices were relatively weak. Traders holding goods tended to sell in large quantities before the festival to mitigate the risk of price changes during the holiday period. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the Central China market centered around a discount of 70-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

SMM June 18 News: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated, with its trading center lower than the same period yesterday. Affected by lower aluminum prices and pre-holiday stockpiling, buying sentiment remained relatively active today. Good destocking performance pushed sellers' quotes and transaction prices to strengthen continuously. Mainstream spot aluminum transaction prices were at a discount of 50-60 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. Mainstream spot aluminum transaction prices were at a discount of 60-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. In east China today, the shipment sentiment index was 2.91, flat MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.14 MoM. As today was the last day before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed strong buying sentiment, and overall transaction was relatively active, though actual transaction prices were relatively weak. Cargo-holding traders tended to sell large volumes before the holiday to avoid risks from price fluctuations during the holiday. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were in the range of a discount of 70-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. In central China today, the shipment sentiment index was 2.93, up 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.23, up 0.02 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventories in major consuming regions fell 1.75 MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Geopolitical Premium Recedes, Coupled with Hawkish US Fed, Aluminum Prices Fall Under Pressure Both at Home and Abroad]