SMM News, March 27: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower to a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly to a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the supply side, quotes from suppliers at primary lead smelters were relatively firm, and some were quoted at premiums due to reduced spot circulation. This week, inventory of delivery-brand primary lead fell by 6,800 mt WoW, which was expected to provide some support for primary lead prices. Most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotes, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at a premium of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the resumption pace at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment diverged, with both wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts and purchase as needed coexisting, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower and touching a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices fell rapidly in early trading and touched a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and hit a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the macro front: 1. US media: The US Department of Defense was considering redirecting military aid to Ukraine for use in the Middle East. 2. Turkey sold 22 mt of gold in a single week, the highest since 2018. 3. Trump: At the request of the Iranian government, strikes on Iran's energy facilities were postponed; Iran denied it. 4. Trump unveiled a "big gift" for Iran: allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait. 5. Fuel surcharges on China domestic routes were set to rise on April 5. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers' quotations were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site showed relatively small differences. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. On the secondary lead side, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and market quotations were limited. In some regions, secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some mainly purchasing via long-term contracts and others replenishing some spot cargoes. Overall market transactions were average. Inventory: As of March 26, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt, or 0.02%, to 283,100 mt. SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions dropped back slightly. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Supply side: Quotations from suppliers of primary lead were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. This week, inventory of deliverable primary lead brands decreased by 6,800 mt WoW, which is expected to provide some support for primary lead prices; most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotations, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at premiums of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the pace of work resumption at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. Demand Side: Downstream procurement sentiment was mixed, with market participants waiting to see the new month's long-term contracts while purchasing as needed also coexisted, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM News, March 26: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,909.5/mt. After the opening, prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of $1,899/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. After repeated tug-of-war at high levels, it pulled back. Near the close, LME lead briefly consolidated at $1,908/mt and finally closed at $1,911.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $13/mt, or 0.68%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated higher, touching a high of 16,570 yuan/mt. Thereafter, lead prices plunged rapidly after 22:30, gradually falling below the key support level of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,490-16,505 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 16,480 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,490 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%. Supply side: Ex-works quotes from primary lead smelters remained stable, with mainstream producing areas quoting premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price; secondary lead smelters held prices firm on shipments, and spot cargo in circulation tightened. Demand side: Downstream procurement sentiment diverged, with wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts coexisting with purchase as needed, while warrant cargoes were relatively more favored in transactions. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with downside supported by firm spot prices and limited room for decline; whether prices can break upward will require close tracking of downstream procurement and restocking pace.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.