Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average. Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum. On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.

This week, the price spread between the TD price on the Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract did not continue to narrow, and the total quoted trading volume of circulating imported silver ingot cargoes in the market had already declined from March. Although many suppliers still held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to costs and delivery intentions, among other reasons, downstream just-in-time procurement generally transacted at sharply lowered premiums after aggressive bargaining. Investment demand in the Shenzhen market was sluggish, and some suppliers dumped non-registered brand silver ingots at quotes on parity with TD or at slight discounts. Overall spot market transactions remained weak. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD premiums edged down to 60-80 yuan/kg, while a small number of end-users' small orders of less than 50 kg were still concluded at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg. Some holders of standard silver ingots suspended quotations and intended to make delivery, while enthusiasm for stockpiling on dips did not improve, and sluggish spot market trading remained unchanged. Inventory side, spot market consumption did not improve this week. Downstream just-in-time procurement maintained aggressive bargaining, with transactions mainly concluded at lowered premiums. Many suppliers did not accept price cuts to sell cargoes, and mentioned increased delivery intentions next week, transferring silver ingot inventory from non-delivery warehouses to delivery warehouses. Social inventory of silver ingots posted a slight buildup.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Disruptions Dominate, and the Pattern of Elevated Aluminum Prices Continues]

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices retreated after a rapid rise and fluctuated downward overall. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to pull back, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate largely moving in sync. The futures market saw wild swings, with the price range of the most-traded contract fluctuating down from 170,000-173,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 154,300-162,800 yuan/mt. Intraday volatility was significant on each trading day, open interest continued to decline, and capital participation weakened. Market transactions remained sluggish, with upstream and downstream psychological price levels diverging further. Upstream lithium chemical plants saw stronger sentiment to hold prices firm and withhold sales this week, with relatively weak willingness to sell spot orders, and quoted prices generally staying above 164,000 yuan/mt. Downstream material plants, however, saw long-term contract volumes and customer-supplied volumes arrive successively at the beginning of the month, and, coupled with restocking through dip-buying at the start of last week, held relatively sufficient inventory at the beginning of the month. Purchase willingness was relatively weak, with only just-in-time procurement maintained, and the psychological purchase price level was basically around 155,000 yuan/mt. Market inquiries were moderate, but actual transactions were relatively mediocre. This week's price decline was mainly driven by the combined impact of multiple factors: First, supply side, repeated market rumors surrounding mines in Zimbabwe and Jiangxi continued to ferment, prompting some funds to close positions and exit, which became an important force pushing prices lower. As prices retreated from highs, earlier bulls showed stronger willingness to take profits; meanwhile, open interest continued to decline, reflecting increasingly cautious market sentiment. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased uncertainty from the macro perspective, also putting some pressure on prices. Capital flows were characterized by continued position reductions and rollovers into deferred-month contracts. Futures open interest continued its declining trend this week, with position reductions of varying degrees on each trading day. It is worth noting that open interest between the 2605 contract and the 2609 contract has already shifted, indicating that funds are gradually moving to deferred months and that the market's willingness to participate in the short-term market has declined. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, continued attention is still needed on the recovery of shipments from Zimbabwean mines and on when Jiangxi mines will resume production; demand side, the intensive launch of new car models in April is expected to drive marginal demand improvement. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

Platinum prices continued to hold up well today. The most-traded platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, PT2606, closed the morning session at 493.8 yuan/g, down 2.84%. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum in the morning session were at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g to PT2606, or quoted at 5-7 yuan/g against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's sell-1 price. Spot discounts were unchanged from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that cargo-holding traders reported that market orders remained limited and consumption was average. In the morning session, spot platinum quoted at around an 8 yuan/g discount to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was difficult to transact. Some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market actively offered quotations in search of spot-futures price spread opportunities, while downstream players still mainly stayed on the sidelines. Some enterprises reported relatively sufficient stockpiling and low purchase willingness. Overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Geopolitical Situation Lacks Clear Guidance, and Repeated Swings in Macro Sentiment Put Futures Under Pressure Again]