In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports reached 23,394 mt, up 85% MoM and up 24% YoY. Among them, other unwrought non-alloy nickel imports 16,177 mt, accounting for 69% of refined nickel imports.China's refined nickel exports 13,296 mt, up 22% MoM but down 25% YoY. Among them, other unwrought non-alloy nickel exports 11,928 mt, accounting for 90% of refined nickel exports.

Nickel prices, both domestic and overseas, generally fluctuated downward throughout 2025, with the price center shifting significantly lower. LME nickel prices fell from an opening of $15,365/mt at the start of the year to a low of $13,865/mt. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract dropped from 124,500 yuan/mt to a low of 111,700 yuan/mt, hitting a nearly five-year low. Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the center of nickel prices in 2026 may shift further downward. If Indonesia substantially tightens nickel ore supply, LME nickel prices may temporarily break through $16,000/mt, but the medium and long-term oversupply situation is unlikely to change, and the high inventory pressure may take a longer time to digest.

【SMM Nickel Market Flash】The NGO Global Witness has confirmed its findings on a major sanctions loophole allowing Russian-mined nickel to enter Western markets, including the US. The organization states that because the EU has not sanctioned Russian nickel, the metal can be legally imported and refined at a Russian-owned facility in Finland. This processed nickel is then considered of "Finnish origin" and legally exported to markets like the US, which has banned Russian-origin metal. The US has imported nearly $130 million worth from Finland since the ban took effect. Global Witness also reiterated its discovery of leaked invoices showing direct sales from the Russian producer, Norilsk Nickel, to a Russian tank manufacturer.