Russian President Vladimir Putin said on June 28, during a meeting on securing the domestic fuel market, that systematic measures are needed to increase fuel supply and maintain economically justified prices. Putin noted that large refineries are operating at full capacity, the potential of small and medium‑sized enterprises has also been mobilized, and previously reserved fuel has been released onto the domestic market. According to a report from the Russian Energy Ministry, the country's gasoline reserves currently stand at 1.7 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the same period last year. Putin added that the necessity of a comprehensive ban on diesel exports is under consideration.

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

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The ban took effect on June 27, with an exception for exports to Russia, dealing another heavy blow to global sulfur supply: According to Order No. 1363 signed by Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy on June 26, Kazakhstan fully suspended sulfur exports starting June 27, 2026, and the ban will remain in effect "until further notice." Notably, sulfur shipments destined for railway stations within the Russian Federation are exempted. The ban covers all categories, with logistics operators responsible for enforcement: This ban includes all mainstream industrial sulfur categories such as liquid sulfur, granular sulfur, and lump sulfur. The responsibility for supervision and enforcement has been explicitly assigned to relevant railway structures and logistics operators, including Dar Rail LLC and TTT Service LLC. Russia and Kazakhstan Take Successive Actions, Global Supply Sees Precipitous Contraction: Just one day before Kazakhstan's ban—on June 25, the Russian government signed Decree No. 785, extending the ban on industrial sulfur exports, originally set to expire on June 30, to December 31, 2026. The Russian ban also covers liquid, granular, and lump sulfur, with officials stating the move aims to prioritize domestic fertilizer production and strengthen national food security.

[Flat Products]Yuan Volatility Pressures Plate Export Quotes Lower Day-on-Day Pressured by yuan volatility, HRC and other plate export prices edged lower day-on-day today, with HRC export deals at 490-500 USD/tonne FOB. Inquiries showed no notable change; Turkey-bound interest persisted but local target CFR levels were low, well below current domestic FOB offers. [Billet]Billet Export Edges Up as Middle East Inquiries Rise but Buyers Press Prices Billet export prices edged up today, with workable FOB levels at 463-465 USD/tonne. Middle East inquiries increased but overseas buyers pressed hard on price, leaving few workable orders; additionally, some mills have upcoming maintenance plans and are slightly restraining order-taking. [Rebar]Rebar Export Prices Hold Steady, Off-Season Trading Stays Weak Rebar export prices held steady today, with workable FOB levels in the 481-483 USD/tonne range. Market participants noted that recent rebar export prices have trended down and deals improved slightly versus earlier, but constrained by off-season demand and overseas price pressure, overall trading remains weak. [India]Indian HRC Prices Hold Steady, Anti-Dumping Probe Lends Policy Support India's HRC market was relatively stable, with Mumbai HRC holding around 611 USD/tonne EXW as buyers purchased on demand to avoid building stocks. Although the monsoon season dampened trade, manufacturing demand stayed relatively steady. India has launched anti-dumping probes on hot-rolled flat products from China, Japan and Russia, and combined with the import price gap, HRC may prove more resilient than long products in the near term. [Vietnam]ASEAN HRC Prices Slide, Traders' Low Offers Fail to Move Vietnamese Buyers To stimulate buying, ASEAN HRC import prices fell to 550 USD/tonne CFR, with offers for Indian-origin SAE1006 HRC for Aug-Sep shipment down to about 540 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam (further below the weekly assessment). Amid slow trade and cautious buyers, these low offers may reflect short-selling by some traders betting on further declines, but Vietnamese buyers, expecting weakness, remain unwilling to accept them. On scrap, US West Coast HMS 80:20 offers fell to about 390 USD/tonne CFR with workable levels around 385-387, while Japanese H2 traded at about 370 USD/tonne CFR, flat week-on-week; weak residential construction demand keeps import scrap soft. [Turkey]Turkey Long Product Prices Fall Broadly as Mills Cut to Win Orders Dragged by weak fundamentals, Turkish rebar export prices assessed by MESTEEL fell to 580-590 USD/tonne FOB, while wire rod export prices likewise slid to 595-605 USD/tonne FOB. With demand showing no improvement, mills remain willing to concede on price in negotiations to secure enough forward export orders to sustain operations. [Iran]Iran Plate Exports Stay Sluggish as Rising Imports Pressure Domestic Prices Although temporary export curbs were lifted in late May, major mills' output remains constrained by the late-March attacks, with producers prioritizing domestic supply and shipping mainly from existing stocks. Slab demand was weak last week, with only about 18000 tonnes traded at 462 USD/tonne EXW. As the Strait of Hormuz reopened, freight fell and Chinese prices dropped, Iranian plate imports rose, with Persian Gulf import HRC down to 560-570 USD/tonne CFR; a roughly 30000-tonne mixed billet-and-HRC cargo arrived at BIK port via Iskenderun last week.

SMM June 29 news: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market saw nearly broad gains. SHFE copper rose 1.11%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE zinc gained 2.01%, SHFE tin increased 1.19%, and SHFE nickel inched up 0.1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.08%, the most-traded alumina contract added 0.86%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract jumped 2.27%, the most-traded silicon metal contract ticked up 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.59%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore added 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel inched up 0.03%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract jumped 2.25%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.32%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.29%, LME aluminum fell 0.44%, LME lead added 0.24%, LME zinc dipped 0.1%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel inched up. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 1.23%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 2.77%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 3.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract ticked up 0.19% to 3,715 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:43 on June 29: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce Adds 20 Japanese Entities to Export Control List] Ministry of Commerce: To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies, which are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities, to the export control list. First, the export of dual-use items to the above 20 entities by operators is prohibited, and overseas organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above 20 entities; ongoing related activities must be immediately ceased. II. If export is genuinely necessary under special circumstances, the exporter shall apply to the Ministry of Commerce. [China's highest-latitude solar thermal power station begins operation] Today (June 29), the first solar thermal power station in Northeast China — the 100,000 kW CGN Jixi Base solar thermal power station — was put into operation in Da'an City, Jilin Province, marking a new breakthrough in the application of solar thermal power technology in high-latitude, severely cold regions of China. Located at 45.36 degrees north latitude in a severe cold climate zone, it is China's highest-latitude solar thermal station, with an installed capacity of 100,000 kW, a heat storage duration of up to 8 hours, and the ability to operate safely, stably, and continuously 24 hours a day. This type of station primarily uses large arrays of mirrors to focus sunlight onto heat collection devices, thereby achieving energy storage. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 157.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. For the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 101.33. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, with a 30.5% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged (40.4%), cumulative 25bp hike (46.9%), cumulative 50bp hike (12.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) Gavekal Research noted in a report: "In 2025, the market was widely concerned that Trump would undermine the independence of US monetary policy by nominating a political puppet as Fed Chairman, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates and causing inflation to consistently exceed the Fed's 2% target." "Developments over the past seven months have made that scenario unlikely." These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, and the reappointment of 11 out of 12 regional Fed presidents. At the first Fed meeting chaired by Warsh earlier this month, the Fed underscored its commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance under the new chair. (Jin10 Data APP) According to "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, sources revealed that the selection process for the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final pick, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this is merely a procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the US Fed's independence is facing serious challenges. The presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid being influenced by Washington's political operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Data wise: Data releases today will include the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, the Eurozone June economic sentiment index, and the US June Dallas Fed business activity index, among others. Also in focus: the European Central Bank is hosting the Global Central Banking Forum in Sintra, through July 1; and the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference is being held from June 29 to 30. Crude oil wise: As of 11:43 a.m., oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.14% and Brent up 0.87%. The US and Iran clashed militarily again over the weekend, negotiations stalled, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz were reignited, supporting oil prices. According to CCTV news reporters on June 28, a senior US official revealed that both sides have agreed to stop attacking each other and plan to meet on June 30 in the Qatari capital to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, neither the US and Iran nor the mediators Pakistan and Qatar have made any official statement. (Wall Street Insights) A report released by energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of new drilling rigs added by US energy companies in a single week hit a new high since June 2022. The total number of oil and gas drilling rigs, an early indicator of future production, increased by 10 in the week ending June 29, the largest weekly increase in four years. The total rig count reached 573, the highest level since May 2025. Baker Hughes stated that this week's increase brought the total rig count 26 higher YoY, an increase of 5%. The company said the number of oil rigs increased by 7 to 440 this week, the highest since June 2025. Natural gas rigs increased by 3 to 125, while rigs classified as other remained unchanged at 8. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, Russian President Putin stated that car owners and various enterprises still face difficulties in fuel supply, with queuing common at gas stations across the country. Affected by the shutdown of multiple refineries, Russia is introducing measures to stabilize the domestic market, and Putin confirmed that a total ban on diesel exports is one of the options being discussed. After meetings with oil producers and government departments on Friday, the Russian Energy Ministry recommended against imposing a diesel export ban for now, citing that it could cause issues such as diesel inventory buildup; the government will reassess the market situation on Monday. Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►