Minsur, the world's second-largest refined tin producer, reported that its Pisco smelter in Peru produced 8,314 mt of refined tin in Q1 2026, down 2.9% YoY. The company attributed the slight decline in tin production to lower feed grades and reduced recovery rates at the smelter. Meanwhile, rising tin prices drove a 16.9% YoY increase in net revenue, effectively offsetting the impact of the production decline. Tin-in-concentrates production from the San Rafael underground mine fell 2.0% YoY to 6,096 mt due to lower recovery rates, but this was partially offset by a 3.3% increase in production from the B2 tailings dam. Total tin-in-concentrates production was basically flat YoY at 7,993 mt. The mill feed grade at the San Rafael mine remained stable at 2.40% Sn.

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

Indonesian state-owned tin producer PT Timah achieved refined tin production of 5,630 mt in Q1 2026, a significant increase of 81.9% YoY. During the same period, PT Timah's refined tin sales volume was 6,009 mt at an average price of $49,221/mt, generating revenue of 5.47 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 2.291 billion yuan), up 160.5% YoY. According to the company's report, tin-in-ore production from its onshore and offshore operations reached 6,312 mt in Q1, up 96.3% YoY. The company attributed this growth to improved production efficiency, an increased number of operating vessels within permitted areas, and higher production from cooperative onshore mines (including small-scale mines and onshore suction dredge pontoon operations). Improved security conditions in mining areas also strongly supported production growth, effectively reducing the impact of illegal mining.

Indonesian state-owned tin producer PT Timah announced that, driven by rising tin prices, the company's 2025 operating profit reached 1.91 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 798 million yuan), up 0.8% YoY. PT Timah's 2025 total revenue was 11.55 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 4.843 billion yuan), up 6.41% YoY. The company stated that domestic clients accounted for 5% of its sales, with the remaining 95% being export sales. PT Timah announced that its refined tin production fell 5.8% YoY to 17,815 mt, mainly due to persistent rampant illegal mining activities both offshore and onshore. By region, onshore production was 7,098 mt (down 8.1% YoY), offshore production was 11,537 mt (down 1.5% YoY), and the overall structure remained largely stable.

On April 16, Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of SMM's Industry Research Department, Feng Chundi, Expert of SMM's Industry Research Institute, and Wu Tao, SMM Overseas Marketing Manager for Copper and Tin, visited Mining Mineral Resources (MMR) for a field trip and exchange, where they received a warm welcome from MMR's leadership. During the exchange, MMR and SMM engaged in in-depth discussions on the current status of the strategic minor metal industry and cross-border supply chain cooperation. MMR has been deeply engaged in compliant mining of critical minerals for over 15 years, with a strategic focus on three key minerals — tin, tantalum, and tungsten. The company holds multiple mining licenses in mineral-rich regions of the DRC, with concentrated resource deployment and exceptional endowment. The enterprise strictly adheres to compliant mining, full-process traceability, and international operational standards, ensuring long-term stable and compliant mine operations. SMM has long been deeply engaged in non-ferrous and rare metals, with core coverage spanning price quotations, industry surveys, and market analysis, comprehensively empowering global mineral trade and industry chain integrated services. Leveraging their respective business strengths, both parties exchanged practical experience on ex-China mineral development, compliance system building, raw material circulation coordination, and industry development trends, laying a solid foundation for subsequent industrial synergy and resource collaboration. Mining Mineral Resources (MMR) Overview Mining Mineral Resources (MMR) has been deeply engaged in compliant mining of critical minerals for over 15 years, with a core focus on the 3T strategic minerals (tin, tantalum, and tungsten). The company holds a portfolio of multiple mining licenses in mineral-rich regions of the DRC: tin (14 licenses covering 2,800 sq km), tantalum (6 licenses covering 400 sq km), and tungsten (1 license covering 300 sq km). The company upholds compliant procurement, full traceability, and international standard compliance systems, building a solid foundation for business operations. Key Tin Producer in Africa • 11 mechanized mines (including open-pit and underground mines) • Annual tin concentrates capacity: 10,000 mt Annual trading volume: 6,500 mt; annual mechanized mining production: 3,500 mt. Mechanized Mining Operations 8 beneficiation plant areas with a combined feed capacity of over 1,500 mt per hour; monthly tin concentrates production of 300 mt; creating employment opportunities and empowering inclusive community development. Smelting Production and Global Supply LME Grade A tin equivalent; Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI) certified smelter; annual refined tin capacity: 4,500 mt. Tantalum Mining Operations The only mechanized tantalum ore beneficiation plant in the DRC; capacity: 20 mt per year of high-grade tantalum concentrates (grade 30% and above); equipped with modern laboratory detection and quality assay facilities. Ore-to-Alloy Entire Industry Chain Lead-free and tin-lead solder alloys, available in bars, wires, electrodes, and casting ingots. The only enterprise in Africa with a complete ore-to-alloy entire industry chain. Corporate Social Responsibility MMR is well aware of its significant social responsibility to the communities in the mining areas. The corporate social responsibility system is built on four core pillars: healthcare, education development, infrastructure improvement, and entrepreneurship empowerment. Scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. Welcome to join us~ Conference Contact : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were lower YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports surged significantly; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.