SMM Nickel News May 25: Macro and market news: (1) Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented"; US Fed Governor Waller: The current stance is to keep rates stable in the near term. If inflation expectations become unanchored, rate hikes will be needed. (2) The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 1 year. Spot market: On May 25, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in a narrow range during the morning session, closing at 143,810 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Global visible inventory of refined nickel remains at high levels, and weak consumption is unable to quickly digest the surplus inventory. Nickel prices lack upward momentum, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

On May 25, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

On May 25, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400-500 yuan/mt.

The SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price fell 5.7 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,140.3 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price fell 1.23 $/nickel unit WoW to 146.52 $/nickel unit. Downstream purchasing sentiment saw a more pronounced decline, with the divergence in mindset between upstream and downstream intensifying.

Nickel prices were generally in the doldrums this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract moved sideways within the 142,000-147,000 yuan/mt range, pulling back after attempting to test resistance at overhead moving averages. The main bearish factors came from continued inventory buildup, which suppressed bullish sentiment. Wait-and-see sentiment was prevalent in the market, with no clear unidirectional driver. LME nickel prices were similarly in the doldrums within the $18,300-19,000/mt range. Spot market side, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 143,510 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums remained at 1,000-1,400 yuan/mt this week. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums stayed in the -500-500 yuan/mt range, with no significant change from last week. Spot market transactions returned to a sluggish state this week, mainly because end-users had actively stockpiled during the previous sharp decline in nickel prices. With futures moving sideways this week, downstream willingness to price against futures was low, with just-in-time procurement being the dominant mode. On the macro front, Fed Chairman transition was completed this week, with new Chairman Waller officially taking office. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were pushed back to H2 2027, with the possibility of rate hikes not ruled out. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained in the elevated range of approximately 4.35%-4.45% this week, and the US dollar index stayed strong, continuing to weigh on non-ferrous commodity prices. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 113,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 1,100 mt WoW. Currently, bullish and bearish forces are balanced, with continued refined nickel inventory buildup being the core factor suppressing nickel prices. In the short term, absent new catalysts, nickel prices are expected to continue moving sideways with wild swings within the 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt range.

SMM Nickel News May 22: Macro and market news: (1) Chinese Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 21 to study work related to advancing the building of a unified national market, reviewed and approved the "Modernization of Emergency System Construction 15th Five-Year Plan," and discussed the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China (Revised Draft)." The meeting noted the need to further advance high-standard connectivity of market facilities, smooth economic circulation, and effectively reduce logistics costs across society. (2) US Secretary of State Rubio said on May 21 that the US is engaging with Cuba and hopes to reach an agreement through negotiations, but there has been no substantive progress so far, and the likelihood of reaching an agreement is low. Spot market: On May 22, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged at -400-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in a narrow range during the morning session, closing at 143,530 yuan/mt, down 0.59%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt. The downside is supported by bottom cost support from sulfur prices fluctuating at highs; the upside is capped by the dual pressure of continued inventory buildup on both the LME and in China.