[SMM Daily Review: Tightening Resource Supply, Nickel Iron Market Still Has Upside Room] On June 17, the upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI stood at 2.77, up 0.02 DoD, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.9, up 0.03 DoD.

As of now, the FOB price for Indonesian MHP nickel is $16,244/mt Ni, and the FOB price for Indonesian MHP cobalt is $51,333/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 95. The FOB price for Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $16,330/mt Ni.

On June 17, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

SMM nickel report on June 17: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed held its FOMC meeting on June 16-17 and will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow Beijing time. The market widely expects the rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. (2) The 2026 Lujiazui Forum opens in Shanghai today. The two-day forum, themed "Financial Development and Cooperation under the Global Governance Initiative," is co-chaired by the head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the mayor of Shanghai. Over 70 Chinese and foreign guests are attending, and multiple financial opening-up policies are expected to be released. Spot market: On June 17, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing the morning session at 135,460 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. The US-Iran deal was reached, significantly easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The tail risk of energy supply disruptions subsided, crude oil pulled back, dragging down global inflation expectations. Once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and the overseas sulfur supply crisis eases, nickel prices' cost support will weaken. Meanwhile, nickel prices remain capped by high inventory. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

While upstream MHP payables stayed high, auxiliary material prices such as sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to climb, and downstream ternary production schedules remained at high levels, the performance of battery-grade nickel sulphate prices was not optimistic. SMM believes this was driven by multiple factors, including weakening cost support, front-loaded downstream stockpiling, increased import supplementation, and higher volumes of nickel sulphate converted from refined nickel.

SMM Nickel June 16 Update: Macro and market news: (1) The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%, bringing it to the highest level in 31 years. The long-anticipated move signals its commitment to addressing inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. (2) Iranian media: The US has begun lifting its maritime blockade, with multiple Iranian vessels passing through US-blockaded waters without incident. Spot market: On June 16, SMM #1 refined nickel spot prices fell by 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) moved sideways in early trading. As of the morning session close, it was reported at 135,700 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. The finalized US-Iran deal has significantly eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the tail risk to energy supply receding. The pullback in crude oil has cooled global inflation expectations. If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases the ex-China sulfur supply crisis, cost support for nickel prices will weaken. Meanwhile, nickel prices remain constrained by high inventories. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.