【SMM Steel】Polish steel group Cognor Holding raised rebar prices nearly 20% effective early 2026 amid a gradual market recovery and EU regulatory changes. The company expects steps to partially offset 2025 losses and improve financial results in coming quarters. A collapse in rebar prices due to Chinese dumping and weak European demand led to revenue falling >9% y/y to PLN2.08bn. Cognor expects operating metrics to improve in Q1 2026 and a return to profitability in Q2. EU regulatory changes, including CBAM and new market protection tools, could reduce external steel supply by ~50%, supporting capacity utilization and price stabilization.

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

In March, square billet prices in Turkey on an Ex-Works basis increased by an average of $33 to reach $538 per metric ton. The upward trend was primarily supported by strong domestic demand for scrap, surging freight rates, and rising local rebar prices, which reached $590–$610 per metric ton. During the month, the Kardemir plant sold a volume of 70,000 metric tons of billets, raising its prices by $15/t following previous consecutive cuts. Mid-month tender prices settled at $505/t for S235JR grade and $510/t for B420 grade (excluding 20% VAT).

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing crude oil in the overseas market to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventory of the five major steel products continued to destock, in a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between futures and spot began to take profits...

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week was still the weakening of cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump released conciliatory remarks that he was "willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed." Market expectations for tightening crude oil supply weakened, the energy sector declined and dragged down the coal sector, and the cost logic weakened. During the week, inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years, and fundamentals provided limited impetus for futures. Spot market side, market enthusiasm for purchasing was lukewarm, with restocking mainly at low prices. Spot prices remained relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened...

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas: