Since March this year, Shenzhen's real estate market has seen a new wave of momentum, with trading volume for both new homes and existing homes continuing to rise MoM, and the market recovering notably, as the "Spring Mini-Boom" emerged. Recently, as a new batch of high-quality residential projects has been launched one after another, housing demand is expected to be further released. According to the Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau, in the first two weeks of March, the number of online signed transactions for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen rose 23.8% and 24.5% WoW, respectively.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and achieved a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY.

A review of the data showed that auto production and sales in China remained at low levels, while exports stayed resilient. Excavators retreated from highs, and overall downstream performance was moderate. In terms of supply, HRC production was expected to rebound this week, but the pressure remained moderate. On exports, freight rates surged rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts, and most clients outside China stayed on the sidelines. Exporters in China reported mediocre order-taking for sheets & plates. Overall, HRC fundamentals were relatively stable in the short term, and prices would still mainly move sideways with the cost side.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. I. Completion of Real Estate Development Investment In January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY (calculated on a comparable basis; see Note 5 for details), with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. II. Sales of Newly Built Commercial Buildings and Pending Sale Status In January-February, the floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold was 92.93 million m², down 13.5% YoY, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential sales floor space fell 15.9%. Sales of newly built commercial buildings amounted to 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points; of which, residential sales value fell 21.8%. At month-end February, the floor space of commercial buildings pending sale was 799.98 million m², up 0.1% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 1.5 percentage points from year-end 2025. Of this total, the floor space pending sale for less than three years was 606.16 million m², down 1.6%. III. Funding Sources of Real Estate Development Enterprises In January-February, funds in place for real estate development enterprises totaled 1,304.7 billion yuan, down 16.5% YoY. Of this total, China domestic loans stood at 257 billion yuan, down 13.9%; self-raised funds were 493.9 billion yuan, down 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 358.9 billion yuan, down 21.5%; and individual mortgage loans were 112.8 billion yuan, down 41.9%.

Recently, two hydrogen-powered excavators, two hydrogen-powered loaders, and four hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks were officially put into operation in the Jinshan mining area, marking the implementation of the integrated “production, storage, refueling, transportation, and use” layout of Daye’s hydrogen energy industry in the application segment. This achieved the large-scale use of hydrogen-powered heavy engineering equipment in mining areas across China and injected new momentum into the green, low-carbon transformation of mines. As core equipment developed by Taiyuan Heavy Machinery, the TZ350EH hydrogen-powered excavator and TZ958EH hydrogen-powered loader worked in coordination with hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks, covering the entire process of mining, loading, and transportation. The equipment emitted only pure water, thoroughly improving the operating environment of traditional mining areas. This batch of hydrogen-powered equipment was deeply optimized for the complex working conditions of mines, with prominent core advantages: the hydrogen-powered excavator featured zero emissions and low noise, and could operate at full load after just five minutes of hydrogen refueling; the hydrogen-powered loader integrated hydrogen power with heavy-load performance and, equipped with proprietary technology, reduced consumption and improved efficiency; the hydrogen-powered wide-body mining truck offered fast energy replenishment, a high energy recovery rate, and excellent low-temperature starting performance, laying a solid foundation for green transportation. This large-scale deployment enabled hydrogen-powered equipment to undergo practical verification in real mining scenarios. It not only opened up a new path for the clean replacement of mining equipment, but also stabilized market demand for upstream hydrogen production, storage, and transportation, promoted coordinated development across the upstream and downstream segments of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and provided a replicable and scalable practical model for transforming traditional mining areas into green and intelligent mines.

SMM Nickel, March 17: Macro and Market News: (1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and posted a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY. (2) Trump: The US Fed should immediately hold a special meeting to cut interest rate; the war will end soon, but not this week; once the war with Iran ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a stone. Spot market: On March 17, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel increased by 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,550 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -500-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated upward in early trading and closed the morning session at 137,150 yuan/mt, up 0.55%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, forming clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the support logic at the industry level remained unchanged, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products persisted. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.