Bank of England Governor Bailey released a clearly dovish signal, stating that against the backdrop of a weak economy, the central bank can tolerate inflation running above the 2% target for a period — a statement that significantly cooled market expectations for a June rate hike. On May 29, Bailey spoke at an economic conference in Reykjavik, Iceland, explicitly stating that "tolerating inflation temporarily above target to support the real economy, against a backdrop of a weak real economy and uncertainty about the scale and duration of the shock, is the appropriate way to handle this trade-off." However, he warned that this tolerance would diminish should signs of second-round effects emerge. The above remarks suggest Bailey is unlikely to support a rate hike at the Monetary Policy Committee's June 18 meeting. Market reactions adjusted accordingly — the interest rate swap market currently prices in only one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026, whereas as recently as late April, markets had expected three rate hikes this year. The surge in energy prices triggered by Middle East tensions has put the UK at risk of a second cost-of-living crisis in less than five years. Bailey's speech indicated that the Bank of England is prioritizing the prevention of further economic deterioration, but the high uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook continues to keep policymakers treading carefully. Removal of Interest Rate Cut Expectations Has Constituted Substantive Tightening Bailey stated that by abandoning the previously market-expected path of interest rate cuts, the Bank of England has effectively tightened policy to a considerable degree. Before the US and Israeli attack on Iran in late February, investors had expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year in two moves. After the conflict broke out, expectations reversed to rate hikes of an equivalent magnitude. This shift in expectations drove a sharp climb in UK gilt yields, which in turn raised borrowing costs for households and enterprises. "By taking the expected rate cuts off the table, we have significantly tightened policy relative to market expectations, and that is already having an impact on the economy," Bailey said. This means that even if the central bank holds rates steady, the substantive tightening of financial conditions is already working to cool inflation, providing a rationale for standing pat. Economy Under Pressure: Consumption and Investment Both Contract Amid Energy Shock The rise in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict is dragging on the UK economy across multiple dimensions. The latest data showed that consumer spending declined, enterprises delayed investment, accumulated inventory, and cut staff, with high energy costs and domestic political uncertainty compounding each other, notably weakening economic momentum. Purchasing managers' survey data also corroborated this trend — surveys released this month showed that business activity slowed sharply after a strong start to the year. Meanwhile, the labour market continued to loosen, with Bailey stating during the Q&A session that "the picture of a gradual softening in the labour market is coming through quite consistently." UK inflation fell to 2.8% in April from 3.3% in March, but analysts noted that this was largely attributable to one-off measures announced by the government in November, and the Bank of England expects inflation to rebound in the coming months. Second-Round Effects: The Core Variable in the Policy Dilemma Although Bailey leaned toward keeping rates stable, he remained highly vigilant about the risk of second-round effects — where energy price shocks trigger significant wage increases, which in turn drive enterprises to raise prices again, creating an inflationary spiral. Bailey acknowledged that there were divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee on this issue. Some members worried that UK wage growth next year could be too rapid, while more dovish colleagues argued that rising unemployment would suppress this risk. Bailey noted that since most wage agreements this year were negotiated before the conflict broke out, the wage data available to the central bank in the coming months would be very limited, potentially leading to a situation where inflation expectations rise without a corresponding acceleration in wage growth. He also cited the lesson from four years ago as a warning — when inflation triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict once surged to double digits. "Because second-round effects take longer to transmit, the case for looking through indirect effects is actually weaker; if indirect effects persist for too long, unless monetary policy responds in a timely manner, inflation will remain above target for an extended period," Bailey said. Market Reaction: Rate Hike Expectations Cooled Significantly Throughout May, market expectations for Bank of England rate hikes declined substantially. The interest rate swap market currently prices in only one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026, a notable shift compared with the three rate hikes expected in late April. Initial market reaction following Bailey's speech was mediocre. He was subsequently set to be interviewed by Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg's Editor-in-Chief for Economics and Government Affairs, which may provide further policy clues. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting on June 18 will be the next important period. Bailey's remarks provided a fairly clear signal for holding rates steady, but the evolution of the inflation outlook — particularly energy price trends and wage data — will remain the key variables determining the policy direction.

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated and Pulled Back, Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish]

SMM May 15 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly. Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%. As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY] PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. [PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor] To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded. US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data) According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. Data: Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)

According to PBoC data, at the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months totaled 653 billion yuan.

According to PBOC data, preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative aggregate social financing (ASF) increment in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, 893 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan, down 129 billion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent, up 213.4 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 99.4 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 300 million yuan, down 45.1 billion yuan YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan, down 199.2 billion yuan YoY; net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan, up 739.3 billion yuan YoY; net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan, down 399 billion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan, up 65.5 billion yuan YoY. Financial Statistics Report for April 2026 I. Outstanding ASF Up 7.8% YoY Preliminary statistics showed that the outstanding ASF at the end of April 2026 was 45.689 trillion yuan, up 7.8% YoY. Specifically, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy were 27.69 trillion yuan (up 5.6% YoY); outstanding foreign currency loans to the real economy in RMB equivalent were 1.123 billion yuan (down 3.8% YoY); outstanding entrusted loans were 1.123 trillion yuan (down 0.1% YoY); outstanding trust loans were 467 billion yuan (up 7.4% YoY); outstanding undiscounted bankers' acceptances were 220 billion yuan (down 7.9% YoY); outstanding corporate bonds were 3.552 trillion yuan (up 8.3% YoY); outstanding government bonds were 9.937 trillion yuan (up 15.6% YoY); outstanding domestic equity of non-financial enterprises was 1.24 trillion yuan (up 4.6% YoY). In terms of structure, at the end of April, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.6% of the outstanding ASF in the same period, down 1.3 percentage points YoY; outstanding foreign currency loans to the real economy in RMB equivalent accounted for 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; outstanding entrusted loans accounted for 2.5%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; outstanding trust loans accounted for 1%, flat YoY; outstanding undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; outstanding corporate bonds accounted for 7.8%, up 0.1 percentage point YoY; outstanding government bonds accounted for 21.7%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY; outstanding domestic equity of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY. II. Cumulative ASF Increment in the First Four Months Was 15.45 Trillion Yuan Preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative ASF increment in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, 893 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan, down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent, up 213.4 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan, down 99.4 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans increased by 300 million yuan, down 45.1 billion yuan YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan, down 199.2 billion yuan YoY; net financing through corporate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, up 739.3 billion yuan YoY; net financing through government bonds was 4.45 trillion yuan, down 399 billion yuan YoY; domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan, up 65.5 billion yuan YoY. III. Broad Money Grew by 8.6% At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 35.304 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.458 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.475 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. IV. RMB Deposits Increased by 14 Trillion Yuan in the First Four Months At the end of April, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 35.057 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY. The month-end balance of RMB deposits was 34.268 trillion yuan, up 8.9% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 14 trillion yuan in the first four months. Among them, household deposits increased by 5.74 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.43 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 1.2 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by 4.5 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the balance of foreign currency deposits was $115 billion, up 19.9% YoY. Foreign currency deposits increased by $89.1 billion in the first four months. V. RMB Loans Increased by 8.59 Trillion Yuan in the First Four Months At the end of April, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 28.429 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. The month-end balance of RMB loans was 28.05 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan in the first four months. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At the end of April, the balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. Foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion in the first four months. VI. In April, the Monthly Weighted Average Interest Rate of Interbank RMB Market Lending Was 1.29%, and the Monthly Weighted Average Interest Rate of Pledged Bond Repos Was 1.31% In April, the interbank RMB market recorded a combined turnover of 22.562 trillion yuan through lending, cash bond trading, and repos, with a daily average turnover of 1.074 trillion yuan, up 34% YoY. Among them, the daily average turnover of interbank lending was up 46% YoY, the daily average turnover of spot bond trading was up 22.1% YoY, and the daily average turnover of pledged repo was up 36.3% YoY. In April, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 1.29%, down 0.09 and 0.44 percentage points from the previous month and the same period last year, respectively; the weighted average interest rate of pledged repo was 1.31%, down 0.09 and 0.41 percentage points from the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. VII. In April, Cross-Border RMB Settlement under Current Account Reached 1.77 Trillion Yuan, and Cross-Border RMB Settlement under Direct Investment Reached 670 Billion Yuan In April, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account totaled 1.77 trillion yuan, of which goods trade and services trade and other current account items accounted for 1.38 trillion yuan and 390 billion yuan, respectively; cross-border RMB settlement under direct investment totaled 670 billion yuan, of which outbound direct investment and foreign direct investment accounted for 260 billion yuan and 410 billion yuan, respectively. Recommended Reading: