[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Decline, Stopping Falling Near Weekend] The Pr-Nd oxide market remained in the doldrums overall this week. Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, downstream metal plants were relatively cautious in procurement, and market trading remained sluggish. However, mid-week, driven by concentrated procurement from major downstream plants, market procurement volume recovered slightly, and suppliers raised their quotes again. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated downward to 700,000-705,000 yuan/mt.

SMM May 21 News: Spot prices of tin, tantalum, and Pr-Nd oxide rose, and high molybdenum prices helped drive the minor metal sector higher. As of 10:22 on May 21, the minor metal sector was up 2.41%. In terms of individual stocks: Eastern Tantalum and China Tungsten High-Tech gained over 6%, while Haotong Technology, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Zirconium, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Huaxi Nonferrous led the gains. This rally was directly driven by improving spot market fundamentals, compounded by a weakening US dollar, strengthening strategic resource attributes, and emerging demand (AI, semiconductors, PV), which continued to fuel market expectations of a tight supply-demand balance in minor metals. Some market capital showed increased willingness to flow in, driving a rebound in the minor metal sector. Spot Market Tantalum The quoted price of tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) on May 20 was 6,600-6,700 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,650 yuan/kg, up 1.53% from the previous trading day. Recently, the tantalum market reached a turning point, with tantalum prices successfully hitting bottom, stabilizing, and initiating a rebound, with the industry's upward trend gradually becoming clearer. Currently, low-priced supplies within the industry chain are being circulated and cleared at an accelerated pace, quoted prices across all product categories are rising in tandem, and the overall market is steadily improving. Driven by expectations of positive news, some smelters proactively tightened their shipment pace and suspended external quotations. Available low-priced supplies in the market were essentially exhausted, and bullish sentiment among traders and suppliers continued to intensify. Combined with steadily rising upstream tantalum ore raw material costs providing strong support, tantalum oxide and tantalum ingot prices are expected to continue their steady rise going forward. Tin On May 21, the average price of SMM 1# tin rose 3.82% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, and market transactions were sluggish. Currently, from a fundamental perspective: Supply side, most smelters maintained stable production as their main focus in May; Demand side, downstream purchasing remained cautious, with most purchases made according to order requirements. Rare Earth Spot market, on May 21, supported by demand from major manufacturers' procurement, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose 1.81% from the previous trading day. Yesterday afternoon, inquiry and procurement activities from magnetic material enterprises increased significantly, which directly boosted market trading activity. Affected by this, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices stopped falling and recovered today, and some Pr-Nd oxide traders chose to hold back from selling, which in turn pushed up Pr-Nd oxide spot prices as well. However, as downstream inquiry prices were relatively low, actual transaction performance was mediocre. In the short term, driven by the continued increase in downstream inquiry and procurement activities, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways and hold up well. Institutional Views Guojin Securities pointed out in a research report on May 18: Rare earths: From the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously raised, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents released from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Full-year exports in 2025 were down 1% YoY, while exports since the beginning of 2026 have increased significantly, indicating that ex-China restocking demand remains substantial. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual upgrades in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for key targets to resolve horizontal competition issues. Tin: Guojin Securities believes that tin ingot invisible inventory is gradually drying up, and therefore tin prices are expected to strengthen amid macro liquidity replenishment or technology sector spillover effects. The tin supply-demand pattern is expected to improve over the long term. Molybdenum: Molybdenum concentrates were priced at 5,210 yuan/mtu this period, up 10.50% MoM; ferromolybdenum was priced at 324,000 yuan/mt this period, up 9.46% MoM. Imported ore has been drawn down to a significant extent, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel bidding volumes remained robust, with destocking across the industry chain, gradually breaking the deadlock of "volume without price" in molybdenum, and the upward channel has become further confirmed. Molybdenum is also a defense metal, with inventory persistently low, and increased ex-China national defense spending may further boost molybdenum prices. Tantalum: The tantalum industry is expected to benefit from the upward cycle driven by high-end demand boost. Related targets: Eastern Tantalum, Xinjinlu, Jiangwu Equipment. CITIC Securities issued a research report on May 13, stating that in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth in the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper (copper: BK1615 3,885.79, 0.58%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold have performed relatively weakly since the beginning of the year. Current metals sector valuations remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and valuation rebounds remain promising. Industry dividends pulled back slightly, but projected dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and select downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Guotai Haitong Securities believes that rare earth prices have been gradually consolidating at lows since 2024, with the slowdown in domestic quota allocation continuing, and while expectations for ex-China rare earth development have been fermenting, actual progress may fall short of expectations. On the demand side, NEVs, home appliances, wind power, and other sectors have maintained the fundamental demand base, while humanoid robots represent a long-term upside option, and the curtain on a supply-demand reversal has already been gradually rising. As a strategic commodity in China, rare earth is expected to see a double boost in both earnings and valuation. Recommended reading:

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] Influenced by news-driven factors, downstream inquiry activity picked up in the afternoon. As of 18:00 this evening, Pr-Nd oxide prices closed at 690,000-695,000 yuan/mt, up slightly by 2,500 yuan/mt from the morning price. Spot Pr-Nd alloy prices showed no significant change from the morning, with mainstream quotations remaining at 850,000 yuan/mt, while a small volume of deferred payment wire transfer deals were concluded at 845,000 yuan/mt. Currently, wait-and-see sentiment on the downstream demand side of the rare earth market remained strong, with purchasing being relatively cautious and actual trading volume in the market still limited.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Overall Decline in Rare Earth Prices Driven by Futures Disruptions] The Pr-Nd oxide market was in the doldrums overall this week. Affected by price fluctuations in futures, traders made shipments at low prices. Meanwhile, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment intensified the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants, with poor purchase willingness. Market trading activity was very sluggish. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had fluctuated downward to 745,000-750,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Market Sluggish around Holiday, Rare Earth Prices in the Doldrums] The Pr-Nd oxide market saw a poor trading atmosphere recently. Downstream metal plants showed low enthusiasm in inquiries and procurement around the holiday, but upstream suppliers maintained firm offers amid tight spot cargo availability, and low-priced sources remained difficult to find. Overall, Pr-Nd oxide price fluctuations were relatively small. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices adjusted slightly downward to 762,000-768,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fluctuated Significantly This Week, Bearish News Severely Undermined Market Confidence] The Pr-Nd oxide market fluctuated significantly recently. Driven by expectations of tightening on the supply side, upstream suppliers raised their quotes one after another. However, as bearish news spread, market confidence was severely undermined. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices adjusted to 780,000-800,000 yuan/mt within the week.