This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

SMM, August 7: The scrap battery market remained largely stable this week, with purchase quotes from some smelters edging up slightly. A mid-week rise in SHFE lead prices triggered a brief recovery in market sentiment, prompting recyclers to sell into the strength, before the market returned to a cautious, wait-and-see mode. Losses at smelters and weak secondary lead transactions curbed raw material procurement appetite, suppressing both scrap battery purchasing volumes and the acceptance of high bids. However, limited growth in social supply lent support to prices. Next week, scrap battery prices are expected to remain steady with a mild upward bias. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in secondary lead, adjustments in smelter operating rates, and the fulfillment of demand expectations during the traditional peak season. If a marginal improvement in lead ingot consumption drives a rebound in lead prices, scrap battery prices are likely to follow in tandem.

Aug 7 News: At north China ports, manganese ore prices declined WoW across all grades: 46% Australian lumps (40-40.5 yuan/mtu), South African semi-carbonate (32.7-33.2 yuan/mtu), Gabonese ore (37.8-38.2 yuan/mtu), South African high-iron ore (28.5-29 yuan/mtu), and South African medium-iron ore (35-35.5 yuan/mtu). At south China ports, manganese ore prices were mixed WoW: 46% Australian lumps (42.9-43.4 yuan/mtu) remained flat, South African semi-carbonate (36.3-36.8 yuan/mtu) declined, Gabonese ore (40.6-41.1 yuan/mtu) declined, South African high-iron ore (31.2-31.7 yuan/mtu) declined, and South African medium-iron ore (38-38.5 yuan/mtu) remained flat. Manganese ore market prices are grinding lower, end-use demand is sluggish, and traders are commonly cutting prices to sell.

[ SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Transaction Comment ] Quotation and inquiry activity in the rare earth oxide market was not high. Most market participants lacked confidence in the future market of Pr-Nd oxide, and downstream had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As the weekend approached, the market trading atmosphere became more sluggish. In the Pr-Nd alloy market, inquiry activity in the afternoon remained scarce. Metal enterprises lowered their quotes to 880,000-890,000 yuan/mt, with a small amount of transactions completed at 888,000 yuan/mt, but the inquiry prices from magnetic material enterprises were still low. In the gadolinium iron market, inquiry activity also remained scarce. High-priced transactions were difficult, and quotes were lowered to 190,000-193,000 yuan/mt.

This week (August 3-7, 2026), the SMM #1 lead weekly average price was 15,425 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW, with prices falling to the lowest level since late June 2023. At the beginning of the week, lead prices plunged sharply, market risk-aversion sentiment clearly heated up, and procurement sentiment among downstream enterprises diverged. Some enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach due to concerns of further declines, while others restocked for essential needs at lower prices. Overall spot market transactions were mixed. As lead prices fell to lows, primary lead smelters' sentiment to hold back from selling at low prices strengthened. Some enterprises suspended external quotations and shipments, and the few that maintained shipments also had firm quotations. Main producing area primary lead quotations were at premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory. In secondary lead, most smelters also suspended shipments to wait and see, resulting in reduced availability of circulating cargoes. A few smelters quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, with a small number posting premiums as high as 125 yuan/mt. After mid-week, as news of maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead enterprises increased, market expectations of subsequent supply tightening grew, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises had some restocking demand at the early stage of the price rebound, but as lead prices rose further, considering the limited improvement in end-use consumption, their procurement enthusiasm declined again, and transactions for high-priced cargoes turned quiet. The overall market maintained a pace of purchasing as needed.