SMM, June 3: The flip-flopping of the US tariff policy has once again sparked market concerns over global trade uncertainties; the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has fueled a surge in market risk aversion; coupled with a series of factors such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI for May falling to 48.5, marking the third consecutive month below the 50 mark {{only used when specifically referring to PMI}}, have all contributed to the recent strengthening of precious metals. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, COMEX precious metals surged by 2.82%, with COMEX silver rising by 5.61%. This also drove the domestic precious metals market to strengthen on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival. As of around 13:15 on June 3, COMEX gold fell by 0.3%, trading at $3,387.1 per ounce; COMEX silver fell by 0.96%, trading at $34.36 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 1.62%, trading at 784.74 yuan/g; SHFE silver rose by 2.32%, trading at 8,413 yuan/kg; and silver T+D rose by 2.79%, trading at 8,408 yuan/kg. The precious metals equity sector also saw a significant surge, at one point leading the gains across all industries. As of around 13:14 on June 3, the precious metals sector rose by 3.7%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged by the daily limit, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Hunan Gold were among the top gainers. News Updates Domestic Pure Gold Jewelry Prices Return to the 1,000 Yuan Mark (Image sourced from Chow Tai Fook's official website) Following the notable rise in COMEX gold during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic pure gold jewelry prices also returned to the 1,000 yuan mark. According to Chow Tai Fook's official website, the quoted price for Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry on June 3 was 1,020 yuan/g, up 22 yuan from the previous day's 998 yuan/g. Additionally, Laomiao Gold's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,019 yuan/g on June 3, while Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,024 yuan/g. World Gold Council: Gold Should Be Considered a High-Quality Liquid Asset, Just Like 30-Year US Treasuries Although gold is classified as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III, it has not yet been recognized as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA). HQLA is a key classification that the World Gold Council (WGC) seeks to change. Analysts from the WGC, in their latest report, have recommended that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) re-examine the classification of gold and recognize it as an HQLA, citing significant market volatility so far this year. The WGC pointed out that over the past six months, gold has once again demonstrated many of the key characteristics that an asset must possess to qualify as an HQLA. US Treasuries, particularly 10-year and 30-year bonds, are among the most recognized top-tier HQLAs. However, the WGC noted that in recent months, gold has been moving in tandem with these stable assets. Analysts stated: "Using intraday minute-by-minute data, we found that gold's average daily volatility was 0.027%. This is higher than the 0.016% volatility of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (OTR) but aligns with the 0.028% volatility of 30-year U.S. Treasuries (OTR)." ( FX678) Silver Price Surges Above 8,400 Amid Strong Market Caution 》Click to View Spot Prices of Precious Metals Boosted by the strong performance of silver futures, spot silver prices showed significant gains on June 3. On June 3, the average morning ex-works reference price for SMM1# silver was 8,425 yuan/kg, up 245 yuan/kg (3%) from the previous trading day. According to SMM, the premium/discount quotes for spot standard silver ingot warrants in Shanghai were 3-5 yuan/kg, but downstream buyers remained cautious, with minimal transactions at high premiums. Market activity was sluggish, with some standard silver ingot suppliers offering discounts of 25 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2508 contract. Large suppliers quoted premiums of 5-8 yuan/kg for silver ingots against TD warrants. Although precious metal prices surged after the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream demand showed no significant improvement, and market sentiment remained cautious, with only limited spot transactions for essential needs. Market Views Huilin Wang, SMM silver analyst, discussed the topic "Silver Supply-Demand Evolution and Price Outlook" at the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yi'an Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining & Metallurgy Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metal Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-Border E-Commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. She noted: The aging population and rising global economic and political uncertainties have increased safe-haven demand, driving a downward trend in real interest rates; the PV and new energy sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with domestic demand stabilizing and export demand expected to rise; lower real interest rates may boost medium- and long-term allocations to silver assets—these bullish factors could support silver prices to fluctuate upward in the medium to long term. Michele Schneider, Chief Market Strategist at MarketGauge, stated that gold and silver prices have been consolidating, leading her to maintain a neutral outlook on both. However, if silver prices firmly break through the $34 per ounce level, she will seek to buy, as it is only a matter of time before it rises to $40. (Caijing) Yide Futures stated: During the holiday, overseas gold and silver prices mainly rose, with the Comex gold-silver price ratio pulling back significantly. US Treasuries, VIX, and the US dollar fell, while US stocks and crude oil closed higher. On the news front, Lorie Logan, the 2026 voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, stated that due to a stable labour market, inflation slightly above target, and an uncertain outlook, the US Fed is closely monitoring a range of data to determine what response measures may be needed. Austan Goolsbee, the 2025 voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that after the uncertainties brought about by tariff policies dissipate, the US Fed can continue to cut interest rates. The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine ended hastily, with significant differences remaining between the two sides regarding the conditions for ending the war. On the economic data front, the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI pulled back to 48.5, below the expected 49.5, marking a contraction for three consecutive months. The US April Core PCE Price Index annual rate was 2.52%, the lowest since the start of the disinflation process, with the monthly rate rebounding slightly to 0.12%, the second lowest level of the year. The nominal interest rate rebound exceeded the break-even inflation rate, and the slight rebound in the real interest rate increased pressure on gold. The short-end spread between US and German yields began to widen, strengthening support for the US dollar. On the funding front, funds allocated to gold and silver were increased simultaneously. As of June 3, SPDR holdings were 933.07 mt (+2.86 mt), and iShares holdings were 14,351.82 mt (+48.07 mt). Speculative funds in gold and silver flowed out simultaneously, with the former reducing holdings for six consecutive days. According to CME data released on May 30, total open interest in New York gold futures was 408,800 lots (-13,818 lots); total open interest in New York silver futures was 147,800 lots (-1,481 lots). The overnight leading indicator, the HUI Gold Bugs Index, continued to hit new highs, suggesting that overseas gold has the potential to challenge the all-time high of 3,500. Technically, New York gold and silver are showing a breakout momentum, with the former standing above $3,400 and the latter approaching the year's high. SDIC Futures believes: Precious metals rose during the holiday. Trump's trade policies have fluctuated, with additional tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum again. In terms of data, the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.5, below expectations and the lowest since November 2024. Under the shadow of the trade war, market prospects remain uncertain. Follow-up attention should be paid to the US Court of International Trade's ban on Trump's tariffs and the progress of negotiations between various parties, as precious metals will test the resistance at the previous highs. Industrial Futures analysis suggests: Since the end of May, uncertainties regarding US tariff policies have risen significantly, with repeated signals emerging on reciprocal tariffs, Sino-US trade negotiations, steel and aluminum tariffs, and automobiles. During the holiday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified again. Although Russia and Ukraine held talks in Turkey on Monday, no signals of easing were released. Short-term risk aversion sentiment has intensified, leading to a significant increase in overseas market gold prices. Overall, reviewing the trend of gold prices in May, fluctuations in market risk aversion sentiment had a significant impact on gold prices, which were prone to repeated fluctuations due to multiple factors, with gold prices fluctuating upward! The gold-silver ratio is relatively high, and silver prices generally follow gold price fluctuations. Goldman Sachs suggests that gold and oil can serve as tools to hedge against inflation in long-term investment portfolios, stating that amid concerns about the credibility of US institutions and the ability of crude oil to withstand supply shocks, gold is attractive as a safe haven. Analysts such as Daan Struyven recommend a higher-than-usual allocation to gold and a lower-than-usual allocation to oil (though still positive), stating that commodities are a "key" hedge against inflationary shocks, which tend to harm bond and equity portfolios. Citi has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce, expecting gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. Recommended readings: 》SMM: Industrial demand and ETF investment demand, among others, may support medium and long-term fluctuations and upward trends in silver prices [SMM Silver Conference] 》Analysis of Silver and Gold Price Trends from a Trader's Perspective [SMM Silver Conference] 》Has the Gold Bull Market Just Begun? Analysts Say Historical Experience Suggests Prices Could Reach $4,500

"We've already made sales this morning. After all, it's a holiday!" a staff member from a gold store in Guangzhou told a reporter from Cailian Press. As "520" (homophonic for "I love you") approached, multiple gold brands, including China Gold and Chow Sang Sang (00116.HK), launched corresponding promotional activities, such as instant discounts of 100 yuan for purchases of gold worth 520 yuan or more, a 50 yuan discount per gram, exchanging old gold for new pieces at no cost, and offering a 20% discount on designated gold jewelry with fixed prices. Recently, gold prices have shown a fluctuating trend. Market data indicates that in just over a month, international gold prices have fallen nearly 10% from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce in late April. On May 15, spot gold prices briefly dipped to $3,120 per ounce, but have since rebounded in the past two days, reaching $3,225 per ounce as of press time. Affected by international gold prices and combined with holiday promotions, the quoted prices for branded gold jewelry have generally fallen below the 1,000 yuan per gram threshold. A visit by a Cailian Press reporter found that today, the listing prices for pure gold jewelry from most gold brands are around 982 yuan per gram, a significant decrease from the 1,061 yuan per gram on April 22. At the "520" period, "romantic demand" has boosted gold consumption. At a gold store in Guangzhou, Mr. Fu purchased a gold necklace alone, stating, "It's a gift for my loved one on the holiday." Ms. Zhang spent over 4,000 yuan on gold jewelry for herself, including a Pixiu bracelet. A staff member at the store told a Cailian Press reporter, "The discount activities for '520' started a few days ago, and the number of people buying gold jewelry has increased significantly. 'We've already made sales this morning. It's indeed selling better than usual.'" Due to the continuous rise in gold prices since the beginning of this year, gold jewelry companies have generally faced pressure on their performance. A senior executive from Chow Tai Seng (002867.SZ) stated at a recent earnings briefing that in Q1 2025, amid increasing uncertainties in the external economic environment and a rapid increase in gold prices, market sentiment has become cautious. Franchisees have shown a lower willingness to make short-term purchases and replenish inventory, putting pressure on the company's franchising business. From this perspective, the decline in Q1 performance was somewhat expected by the company. However, we have also observed some positive signs, such as notable growth in gross profit and profit for the company's self-operated businesses (offline + e-commerce), as well as a significant increase in the overall gross profit margin. Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH) mentioned that in Q1 this year, due to the rapid increase in gold prices in the short term, the sales volume in kilograms at the company's Chinese New Year ordering conference decreased YoY, which in turn affected the company's revenue in Q1. Recently, despite the significant decline in gold prices and the positive impact brought by "520" to the industry, many interviewees still believe that the gold sales market is unlikely to recover in the short term. A partner from a Shanghai Gold Exchange member company in Shuibei told a Cailian Press reporter that despite the recent correction in gold prices, there has been no significant increase in downstream shipments. "The current gold price is still at a high level. "No new products have been launched in the market, mainly because the current 5.2-gram products already cost nearly 5,000 yuan," said Song Yunming, Chief Analyst at Asamin International Economic Consulting, to a Cailian Press reporter. {{ }} Affected by multiple factors such as tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine relationship, spot gold faced greater downward pressure than upward support in Q2 and early Q3. The phased fluctuation downward indeed created opportunities for adjustment cycles, but the price level around $3,200 per ounce was not worth considering. {{ }} Under such circumstances, gold jewelry producers began to adopt strategies such as integrating online and offline sales and promoting lightweight gold jewelry to boost sales. {{ }} Wu Changfeng, Director and Deputy General Manager of Mankar Dragon, stated that as Generation Z becomes the main consumer force, online and offline channels have entered a phase of deep integration. "We observe that consumers rely on online platforms for product browsing, price comparisons, and initial screenings, while also valuing the in-person experience and product customization at physical stores. Therefore, we have achieved omnichannel synergy through the model of 'online precise lead generation + offline immersive experience': our online store leverages digital tools such as videos and live-streaming sales to enhance conversion rates, while our physical stores strengthen immersive shopping scenarios and VIP services, ultimately connecting the consumer data loop through a membership system. This omnichannel retail strategy not only meets the hybrid needs of the new generation of consumers to 'order anytime, anywhere, and experience in-store as needed' but also brings us an increase in cross-channel repurchase rates." Chow Tai Seng revealed that from 2017 to 2024, the average growth rate of e-commerce sales revenue reached 37.32%. {{ }} Previously, a representative from a publicly listed firm told a Cailian Press reporter, "Consumers tend to visit physical stores for expensive items, while lightweight or lower-value items may be more conveniently purchased online. Young people value the convenience of channels and are accustomed to this consumption scenario." {{ }} Cailian Press reporters noted that on e-commerce platforms, gold jewelry sold by gold brands includes small rings, bracelets, earrings, necklaces, etc., with most prices below 3,000 yuan. {{ }} When asked about the subsequent trend of gold prices, Song Yunming told a Cailian Press reporter that prices may continue to decline in the short term. "On the one hand, gold prices have risen by more than 30% this year, with irrational speculative sentiment prevailing in the market in the second half of April, and many buyers entering at high prices. This corrective fluctuation guides market sentiment back to rationality and even generates risk aversion. On the other hand, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the fundamentals, with clear downward pressure around $3,430 per ounce. The risk of short-term overall fluctuation downward still exists. Within a 90-day window, it cannot be ruled out that spot gold may fall below $3,000 per ounce, with key support levels to watch in the range of $2,850-2,930 per ounce."

On the morning of May 12, after China announced that the China-US meeting had reached "important consensus," spot gold prices fell to $3,260 per ounce, dropping over 2% intraday. In stark contrast, following the recent clashes between Pakistan and India in the Kashmir region, COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3,333 per ounce on May 10, with a cumulative increase of 2.8% for the week. On the afternoon of May 9, spot gold prices even surged to $3,338 per ounce. As May progresses, the fluctuating trend of international gold prices at high levels seems to have become the norm. In the view of industry insiders, considering the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disputes, the recent volatility in gold prices is understandable, and investors, especially futures investors, need to enhance their risk awareness. Cailian Press reporters noted that as the primary channel for ordinary people to participate in gold investment, several national commercial banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and China Everbright Bank, have continued to issue announcements recently, raising the minimum subscription amount for gold accumulation plans and explicitly warning that "investment involves risks." Several industry insiders told Cailian Press reporters that, objectively speaking, drawing lessons from past incidents like the crude oil treasure and paper gold events, banks do not hope for sharp fluctuations in gold prices, especially for gold accumulation plans. Unexpected volatility in international gold prices is intensifying. A macro analyst from a securities firm who has long tracked gold trends told Cailian Press reporters that the surge in international gold prices this year has exceeded the estimates of many industry insiders. According to the research of his institution, a price of $3,000 per ounce is already a reasonable range considering supply and demand factors. However, gold prices have continued to hit new highs since then, primarily due to the "butterfly effect" triggered by Trump's tariff disputes, which led to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into the gold market, coupled with speculation, resulting in mixed performance and fluctuating trends in gold prices recently. On May 11, a report released by Guosheng Securities analysts Zhang Hang, Chu Jinna, and He Chengyang pointed out that bullish and bearish factors intertwined over the past week, leading to increased volatility in gold prices. On May 7, data from the official website of the People's Bank of China showed that China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces MoM at the end of April, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases. The average/highest/lowest prices of COMEX gold in April were $3,236, $3,510, and $2,970 per ounce, respectively, which may serve as reference support levels for future gold price movements. "Geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and tariff disputes are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term. Overall, gold prices are expected to remain volatile this year, and investors need to enhance their risk prevention awareness."The analysts held the above views. Multiple banks have intensively issued risk warnings, with the minimum purchase amount for individual clients' gold accumulation raised to 1,000 yuan. Although banks objectively benefited from the strong gold prices last year, many have recently issued announcements to increase the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation and issue risk warnings. The latest case is that on May 9, China Construction Bank stated on its official website that the recent intensified fluctuations in domestic and overseas precious metal prices have increased market risks. Clients are advised to enhance risk awareness in precious metal business, reasonably control positions, promptly monitor open interest and margin balance changes, and invest rationally. Additionally, to strengthen business risk management, China Construction Bank has raised the minimum amount for regular gold accumulation (including daily average and self-selected day accumulation) from 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan starting from 9:10 on May 6. Besides CCB, other national commercial banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and China Everbright Bank have also issued announcements to increase the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation and explicitly warned that "investment carries risks." Among them, China Merchants Bank has raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation four times this year, directly increasing it from 750 yuan to 1,000 yuan. According to information from major banks' official websites, the threshold for ordinary people to purchase gold accumulation has now been raised to 1,000 yuan. Several industry insiders told Caixin reporters that, objectively speaking, referring to past incidents like the crude oil and paper gold events, banks do not want to see sharp fluctuations in gold prices, especially in gold accumulation business. An insider from a listed bank in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai told Caixin reporters that after the bank raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation, the number of subscribing clients did not increase. This means that if the purchase threshold is repeatedly raised, banks' fee income will decrease instead. "Overall, currently, banks mainly play the role of channels and intermediary platforms in the gold trading market, and everyone hopes to steadily collect fees from it," the above-mentioned bank insider in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai admitted. From the perspective of risk avoidance, many banks currently do not invest much in their proprietary gold business (derivative trading). This phenomenon may be difficult to change in the short term. Benefiting from the 'crazy gold,' many banks had a good harvest in their gold business last year. Caixin reporters noted that in the past week, many banks have become the focus of public opinion due to their gold business. For example, a netizen revealed on social media that a friend purchased gold bars at a branch of ICBC in Shanghai, and the melted substance was suspected not to be pure gold.The topic "Buying adulterated gold bars from banks" thus trended on Weibo. However, on the evening of May 9, the ICBC Jiading Sub-branch in Shanghai responded that, after verification, the situation was untrue. Detection reports for the two types of gold bars both recorded a detection conclusion: the gold content was 99.99%, with no quality issues. So, apart from selling gold bars and gold ingots, what are the other mainstream gold businesses currently offered by banks? An insider from a joint-stock bank told a reporter from Caixin that, in addition to physical gold businesses, many banks currently offer common services including gold accumulation plans, wealth management products linked to gold, precious metal financing leasing, and precious metal futures/options derivatives trading, among others. After some insurance institutions were recently approved to enter the gold trading market, "another trading channel has been added." Yu Zhi, a researcher at Use Trust, previously told a reporter from Caixin that gold-linked wealth management products fall within the extended scope of fixed-income+ products, but the number of such products issued is not large. "The gold market business is an important part of a bank's intermediate income business. Banks are an important channel for investors to trade gold ETFs. Last year, with the sharp rise in gold prices, banks' intermediate income also benefited significantly," the aforementioned macro analyst pointed out. After the paper gold business was suspended, influenced by the current strong cycle of gold, banks' related businesses have also picked up recently. A Caixin reporter noted that, judging from the annual reports of some banks, the gold business has indeed become one of the highlights of last year. For example, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) annual report disclosed that, as of the end of 2024, on ICBC's balance sheet, the bank's precious metal assets were 172.144 billion yuan, compared to only 114.928 billion yuan in 2023; the group's precious metal assets were 208.242 billion yuan, compared to 139.425 billion yuan in 2023. This means that ICBC and its subsidiaries saw significant growth in their gold businesses last year. In addition, the Agricultural Bank of China's annual report also pointed out that, as of the end of 2024, the bank's direct and agency gold trading volume was 5,992.28 mt. The bank's physical precious metal sales in 2024 were 26.671 billion yuan, a 68.5% increase from the previous year. The Postal Savings Bank of China's annual report also disclosed that, in 2024, the bank's precious metal business trading volume increased by 136.47% YoY, and revenue increased by 105.51% YoY. The Industrial Bank's annual report also disclosed that, last year, the bank effectively capitalized on the fluctuations in the gold market to achieve rapid growth in precious metal business volume and revenue, with revenue increasing by 100% YoY during the reporting period.

Today, COMEX gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,371.9 per ounce, and as of press time, the price was $3,343.2. However, the overall trend of COMEX gold over the past year remains very impressive. In the domestic market, the prices of pure gold from major gold brands also reached new highs today, with many brands breaking through 1,020 yuan per gram. Against this backdrop, gold ETFs, which are convenient and flexible for trading, have also been gaining popularity. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. According to Ant Fund data, by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users starting regular investments. Meanwhile, the number of user searches for "gold" in Q1 increased by 206% YoY. As gold prices climbed, Ant Fund continued to remind investors to be aware of volatility risks and to hold and invest rationally. Some fund managers also proposed solutions to the dilemma faced by investors who want to invest in gold but are concerned about high-level risks, such as periodic investments or viewing the issue from an asset allocation perspective to pursue stable overall asset returns, including combinations like gold + stocks, gold + bonds, and gold + QDII. Gold ETF Scale Hits Record High, Over 2 Million Investors Engage in Regular Investments Amid escalating trade frictions and the loosening of US dollar credibility, gold prices have surged to a record high, becoming a clear sign of global capital seeking safe havens. As of April 16, London spot gold broke through $3,300 per ounce, marking a 36.47% increase over the past year. In this context, gold ETFs have also gradually reached new highs. According to Shanghai Exchange data, by the end of Q1, the scale of domestic on-exchange and off-exchange gold ETFs reached 101.988 billion yuan, up 185% YoY. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 2.74 billion this year, reaching 7.589 billion, a growth of over 56.48%. Its latest scale has reached 56.923 billion yuan, with an increase of 28.247 billion yuan this year, making it the undisputed leading product in the gold ETF field. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 897 million this year, reaching 3.438 billion. Its latest scale reached 25.747 billion yuan, with an increase of 10.743 billion yuan this year. E Fund and Guotai Gold ETFs also saw their shares increase by 921 million and 1.02 billion this year, reaching 3.185 billion and 2.242 billion, respectively. Their current scales are 23.658 billion yuan and 10.41 billion yuan, with increases of 10.41 billion yuan and 9.477 billion yuan this year, respectively. Additionally, the latest scales of ChinaAMC, ICBC Credit Suisse, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETFs also totaled over 7 billion yuan. Huaan Gold ETF Scale Grows Over 35 Billion Yuan in the Past Year Affected by market conditions, the investment habits of gold ETF users are gradually changing. Ant Fund data shows that by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users choosing long-term regular investments. Additionally, nearly 80% of gold ETF users also hold equity funds, bond funds, or other products like Yu'ebao, initially establishing a concept of diversified allocation. From the perspective of fund companies, whether it is the stagflation risk that tariff events may pose to the economy or the US disrupting the international order and accelerating the collapse of US dollar credibility, gold assets are likely to effectively hedge against such risks. Therefore, after last week's panic selling in the capital markets, international gold prices have rebounded to new highs, being the only major asset to hit new highs after the tariff impact, objectively indicating the current global capital market's recognition of gold's value. Whether it is capital market investors or non-US central banks, the demand for gold assets is likely to continue. Gold Price Surge, Platforms Warn of Risks As gold prices continue to soar, gold ETF distribution platforms like Ant Fund have also been warning of price volatility risks, advocating rational holding of gold and avoiding frequent trading. "Gold ETFs have a low investment threshold, flexible trading, and no storage costs, making them very suitable for ordinary investors," said a gold industry insider. Physical gold is recognized as a hard currency, but gold bars, gold beans, etc., face storage and wear issues, and jewelry gold includes processing fees, making it more expensive, with the recovery price often much lower than the purchase price, making the investment cost not low. Although Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per ounce, the above-mentioned person analyzed that short-term price fluctuations in gold cannot be ignored, and investors need to guard against risks, buy in batches, and reasonably control positions. Gu Fanding, manager of CITIC-Prudential Global Commodity Theme Fund, believes that gold is still a relatively superior asset, but compared to last year, volatility may increase, which may come from three aspects: First, the US Fed's monetary policy. Last year was the process of the US Fed ending rate hikes and starting rate cuts, with relatively consistent market expectations, but this year the pace of rate cuts may still have significant differences. Second, the direction of the overseas economy. Last year's economic slowdown and marginal decline in inflation were relatively certain, but this year, due to Trump's various reform policies, the uncertainty of the economy and inflation may increase. Third, geopolitical issues. Last year, geopolitical issues did not ease, but this year, although signs of easing have appeared, whether tensions will re-emerge after easing has become uncertain. Ye Peipei, manager of China Europe Fund, also noted that in the short term, the probability of further escalation of overall trade frictions is decreasing, and both recession sentiment and de-dollarization sentiment have shown signs of stabilizing. Therefore, it can be considered that the stage of rapid upward movement in gold prices in the short term may have ended, and subsequent gold prices may show a fluctuating trend, requiring observation of how the trade situation further evolves. "Currently, the risk in the gold market is still the short-term tariff disturbance sentiment warming up. From a speculative perspective, as of April 8, the number of non-commercial long positions in COMEX has decreased significantly from the high, and speculative sentiment is not actually robust," said Ye Peipei. How to Break the Dilemma of Investment Choices? Currently, with gold prices remaining high, investors face the dilemma of wanting to invest but being concerned about high-level risks. How to break this dilemma? Gu Fanding believes there are two investment ideas: The first is periodic investments. In the context of major global changes, gold assets have relatively higher certainty of returns in the medium and long term. If it is difficult to grasp short-term fluctuations, periodic investments can be made to reduce short-term uncertainty while striving to retain the certainty of long-term returns. The second is to view the issue from an asset allocation perspective. The current global economic and political environment faces significant uncertainty, and various assets may be entering a period of amplified volatility. At this time, controlling the risk of the overall asset is much more important than seeking short-term returns from a single asset. For example, many investors now consider allocating gold assets while investing in stocks and bonds as a form of "insurance" for other assets. Additionally, in recent years, many investors may also allocate some QDII funds, which is actually a more diversified investment strategy to pursue stable overall asset returns. Guotai Fund also believes that from an asset allocation perspective, gold has low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios to smooth portfolio volatility. Taking gold + stocks as an example, historical data shows that in years when equity assets suffer significant losses, gold can provide good returns to hedge against stock risks. From 2005 to 2024, the CSI 300 Total Return Index experienced significant losses in certain years, such as 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023. In these years, spot gold performed well, except for a slight loss in 2008, achieving positive returns in other years, which can better hedge against the decline in equity assets. Gold + bonds is also one of the allocation methods. Guotai Fund analysis suggests that a combination of gold and bonds can balance returns and risks under certain market conditions. For example, during economic instability, the fixed income from bonds can stabilize the returns of the investment portfolio, while the safe-haven attribute of gold may bring additional value. Additionally, by reasonably allocating the proportion of gold and bonds, it can help reduce portfolio volatility to a certain extent, improve portfolio stability, and help investors better achieve the goal of asset preservation and appreciation.

After fluctuating at highs for two days, gold prices surged again today. Spot gold hit a historic high of $3,300 per ounce for the first time, soaring by $70 intraday, marking the third record-breaking session in nearly five trading days. Domestic gold prices also rose significantly, with many brand gold stores reporting prices for pure gold jewelry exceeding 1,000 yuan per gram, setting a new record. An industry insider told Caixin reporters, "The current prices have left the industry in a passive position." During a weekday visit to the Shuibei gold trading market in Shenzhen, Caixin reporters observed that customers were hesitant, whether for recycling or gold jewelry consumption. A stall owner said, "Gold prices are too high, and the recent foot traffic is indeed not as strong as before, making business more challenging." A representative from a gold wholesale company, a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, also noted that gold shipments had declined significantly compared to last week. On April 16, data showed that spot gold prices reached $3,317.89 per ounce, with an intraday increase of over 2%. The most-traded US gold futures contract also hit a new high of $3,334.2 per ounce. Domestic gold prices were also driven higher. On April 16, the most-traded gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 782 yuan per gram, setting a new record. Spot gold prices denominated in yuan have risen by approximately 26% year-to-date, nearing last year's full-year increase. Brand gold stores such as Chow Sang Sang (00116.HK), Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH), and Luk Fook Jewelry reported prices for pure gold jewelry exceeding 1,000 yuan. For example, Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,005 yuan per gram today, up by 16 yuan from the previous day. "The current rise in gold prices is essentially a reflection of the decline in US dollar credibility, the depreciation of the US dollar, and concerns about the stability of the global currency exchange system," said Song Yunming, chief analyst at Asaming International Economic Consulting, to Caixin reporters. He noted that Trump's tariff policies have been erratic, and the unresolved US-China tariff issue has drawn more attention, leading to a high consensus in the market about a global economic recession, which has kept gold prices elevated. From a market perspective, Asian gold buying power has been particularly strong this year, and China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months, with the likelihood of further increases, providing strong support for gold prices. The rapidly fluctuating market has significantly impacted gold recycling and end-use consumption. Caixin reporters observed that brand gold stores had few customers, with the high gold prices being a major factor suppressing consumption, in addition to the current off-season. In terms of gold recycling, a gold shop owner said that most customers are in a wait-and-see mode. Sellers are concerned that prices will rise further after selling, while customers who have already purchased and held gold are worried about a sharp price drop. "Recycling business has declined due to rising gold prices," said the representative from the gold wholesale company. There are two types of sellers: individuals, who would have sold earlier if they were concerned about prices, and jewelry stores clearing inventory, but with gold prices rising for so long, they are hesitant to restock, leaving little to clear. Additionally, with gold prices climbing, the funds available for purchasing gold are limited, reducing the amount that can be bought. For example, where 10 million yuan could previously buy 30 kilograms, it now only buys 12 kilograms, resulting in lower profits. With gold prices remaining high, how are gold-listed companies responding? Chow Tai Fook (002345.SZ) previously told Caixin reporters, "Regarding gold price fluctuations, our brand has a comprehensive supply chain management system and a flexible market strategy mechanism. We will continuously and dynamically assess industry trends, balancing cost changes and consumer experience through product innovation, intangible cultural heritage craftsmanship upgrades, and exclusive member benefits." A spokesperson for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) Jewelry Group told Caixin reporters, "Facing record-high gold prices, we will adjust our product portfolio according to market demand, offering different product series to meet customer needs, such as flexibly using various jewelry materials to create culturally rich and fashionable designs. We will also apply techniques like 5D hard gold to 'lighten' products while maintaining design and quality, providing more cost-effective options." Regarding whether the company will increase gold product prices again and how to mitigate the impact of rapid gold price increases on profits, the Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group spokesperson said the company has a robust risk management mechanism to address gold price fluctuations and evaluates the prices of priced gold products at least every six months, considering factors such as production cost changes, market demand, and strategic positioning. Looking ahead, Song Yunming said, "If the US and China can return to the negotiating table on tariff issues, and the Russia-Ukraine issue can be resolved, sending positive signals to the market, gold prices may see a significant correction. Currently, I expect the year-end closing price for London gold to be between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce."

LME copper prices opened at $9324/mt and closed at $9348/mt overnight, a drop of 0.33%, with the low-end of $9276/mt and the high-end of $9358.5/mt.