![[SMM Analysis] NPI Squeezed From All Sides: Nickel Down, Margins Down, Scrap Cheaper — What's Left?](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagessKPDH20260517104830.png)
After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.
May 17, 2026 10:43SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.
May 16, 2026 08:21SMM has been deeply engaged in the metal industry for decades, consistently upholding the principles of objectivity, neutrality, pragmatism, and rigor. By adhering to actual market transactions as the core pricing benchmark and leveraging its well-established price assessment methodology and comprehensive data system, SMM continues to deliver standardized market benchmarks for participants across the industry chain. This provides solid support for industry pricing standards, transaction settlements, and business decision-making, serving as a long-term partner in the steady development of the metal industry.
May 15, 2026 18:21SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.
May 15, 2026 18:20![[SMM Analysis] Significant Supply-Demand Divergence, NPI Stagnant at Highs During the Week](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LNpBh20251217171732.jpeg)
SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price fell 4.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price rose 0.97 $/nickel unit WoW to 147.75 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment was subdued.
May 15, 2026 18:17As a core vital raw material for manganese hydrometallurgy, sulfuric acid dominates production costs and process selection across the entire product chain. Major manganese products, including electrolytic manganese, diversified manganese sulfate, and electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), adopt distinct production processes with varied acid consumption structures.
May 15, 2026 17:35To further enhance the accuracy and consistency of our data, our company has adjusted the calculation methodology for the tin import profit margin indicator:
DataApr 27, 2026 15:16Dear users, As the core raw material for the steel industry, the price fluctuations of iron ore directly determine the cost and profit stability of the steel industry chain. In recent years, the endowment of global iron ore resources has shown significant changes, with the proportion of high-grade ore production continuously declining. To actively respond to market changes, enhance the guiding significance of the index for the Spot Market, and improve market information transparency, SMM has decided to launch the "MMI 61% Iron Ore Port Stock Index (IOPI)" and the "MMI 61% Iron Ore Seaborne Index (IOSI)" from 5th January 2026. The specific price point details are as follows: Index Price Point: MMI 61% Iron Ore Port Stock Index (IOPI) Quality specifications: Fe content base 61%, aluminum base 2.5%, silica base 4.5%, phosphorus base 0.1%, sulfur base 0.02%, Moisture base 8% Definition: FOT Qingdao Port, VAT included. Normalized for any Chinese Port. Unit: RMB/wet tonnes Quantity: min 5,000 tonnes Timing: within 1 week Payment Terms: Payment at sight Publication: Working Day, 6 PM Beijing Time Index Price Point: MMI 61% Iron Ore Seaborne Index (IOSI) Quality specifications: Fe content base 61%, aluminum base 2.5%, silica base 4.5%, phosphorus base 0.1%, sulfur base 0.02%, Moisture base 8% Definition: CFR Qingdao Port. Normalized for any Chinese Port. Unit: USD/dry tonnes Quantity: min 50,000 tonnes Timing: within 2 months Payment Terms: L/C or payment at sight Publication: Working Day, 6 PM Beijing Time SMM Iron Ore Research January 5, 2026
PriceJan 5, 2026 14:18To better serve industrial clients and more closely align with the market, SMM has added a weekly price for 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne, which will be officially launched on the SMM website (smm.cn) on December 19, 2025. 1. SMM 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne Methodology 1.1 SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is a fully independent third-party service organization that does not participate in any actual transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in the market as an observer or organizer and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry professionals, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. Equal importance is given to normal transactions that meet the standard specifications. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, a corresponding methodology is established (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these guidelines when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM price assessment methodology and announce these revisions on the official website www.smm.cn 28 days before their formal implementation. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on the official website www.smm.cn ). This document specifies the standards for formulating the weekly RC for 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne. The purpose of establishing this standard by SMM is to create a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price formation. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation procedures, ensuring that the prices or indices accurately reflect the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the ongoing methodology or processes, thereby improving the quality of SMM’s published prices or indices. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of 8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne. 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment Current copper rod industry faces increasingly prominent overcapacity issues, with low capacity utilization rates. The market for ordinary power-grade rods suffers from homogenized competition, processing fees are caught in internal competition, and profit margins for most enterprises are severely compressed. Against this backdrop, the copper rod industry is gradually transitioning toward high-quality development, enhancing product added value, expanding profit margins, and progressively addressing the structural imbalance of "excess low-end supply and insufficient high-end supply." Tin-plated copper rods, leveraging characteristics such as oxidation resistance, ease of welding, and strong stability due to the tin coating, meet the demands of high-end sectors like new energy vehicles and electronic devices. With the continuous expansion of emerging industries such as new energy and 5G communication, the tin-plated copper rod market holds broad prospects and will become a key direction for the transformation and upgrading of the copper processing industry. 2.2 SMM 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Given the wide variety of tin-plated copper rod specifications, SMM adopts the 1.8mm diameter, which holds a relatively high market share, as the basis for quoting tin-plated copper rod processing fees, with reference to the standard GB/T3952-2016 Copper Rod for Electrical Purposes. 2.2.2 Price Terms Ex-works, China, 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod premium top on SMM 1# Copper Cathode 2.2.3 Payment Terms cash, other terms normalized. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 3 days. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 1 tones. 2.2.6 Delivery Location China 2.2.7 Price Release Time Weekly, by 11:30 am Beijing time, last working day of every week. 2.2.8 Processing Fee Format The reported processing fees are presented as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 1.8mm Tin-Plated Copper Rod Premium (Electroplating), Ex-works China, VAT included, yuan/tonne range 3,000–4,000 yuan/tonne, average: 3,500 yuan/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Methodology SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.10 Standardization of Data Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.11 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the Copper Cathode Rod industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Xinyang Wang Contact: 021-20707846, +86 15762822325
PriceDec 11, 2025 19:27