SMM, June 12: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. Initially, the price briefly fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,974/mt. Then the bulls' upward momentum faded and the price fluctuated downward. During the European session, it continued to fluctuate downward, hitting a low of $1,942/mt. At the end of the session, the price rebounded quickly, finally settling at $1,957.5/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt, or 0.25%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered, the SHFE lead price fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, hitting a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, it rebounded slightly and lifted, finally settling at 16,040 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt, or 1.11%. Middle East geopolitical conflicts weakened overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remained at multi-year highs, with ex-China lead prices under pressure, dragging on the Chinese market. Currently, downstream has entered the consumption off-season, battery enterprises are conducting half-year inventory checks, and later-stage procurement tends to contract, making it difficult for the demand side to lift prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, coupled with production resumption expectations at some secondary lead smelters. Supply-side bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours before fluctuating higher, hit a high of $2,001.5/mt in the European session, after which overhead selling pressure was released and the market quickly turned downward, dipping to $1,975/mt during the session. Prices corrected slightly in late trading and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices saw a slight correction, then short-term buying pushed prices slightly higher to a session high of 16,195 yuan/mt. After the high, bulls lacked follow-through, bears gradually took control, and futures fluctuated downward, with prices moving lower in steps to 16,075 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,095 yuan/mt, posting a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt or 0.46%. On the macro front: The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran over a helicopter incident, and Iran said it would respond resolutely. Trump: May participate in rebuilding Iran, but wants half the oil. Vance: A deal could be reached in the near term, but “definitely” before the midterm elections. U.S. media disclosed four major topics in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The EU plans to unveil its 21st round of sanctions against Russia. According to Nikkei: The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates to 1% at its June meeting. China's goods trade imports and exports grew 15.3% in the first five months. The U.S. added Alibaba, BYD, and others to its “military-related” list. Foreign Ministry: Urges the U.S. to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Spot Fundamentals: In the morning, SHFE lead tumbled sharply, nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers diverged in their selling strategies, with a few still offering at discounts while most narrowed their discount quotes. In particular, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, with some only selling under long-term contracts. Mainstream primary lead smelters offered electrolytic lead at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price EXW. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with most halting shipments. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead EXW, resulting in an inverted relationship with primary lead. Downstream enterprises’ rigid demand favored the primary lead market, mainly sourcing cargoes self-picked up from production sites. The market saw both wait-and-see sentiment and dip-buying. Inventory: As of June 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,200 mt to 308,050 mt. As of June 8, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling remains cautious. On the lead ingot inventory front, destocking has been weak and has gradually stabilized, while expectations of inventory buildup are intensifying. On the sentiment front, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has posted five consecutive losses, with short positions gradually increasing and bearish sentiment gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, amid the persistent decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters, facing losses, are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, the downside room for lead prices finds some phased support.

SMM, June 9: In the day's session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,205 yuan/mt, came under overall pressure and weakened after the open, fluctuated downward in morning trading to hit a low of 16,055 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at low levels around the 16,055–16,100 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, it rebounded slightly with small fluctuations and closed at 16,170 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 170 yuan/mt, or 1.04%, for the day. The current decline in lead prices is mainly under dual pressure from increased supply from secondary and primary lead smelters and the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption. Downstream participants maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, mostly purchasing as needed at lower prices. Meanwhile, social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight destocking trend, and coupled with tightening inventory of scrap battery raw materials for secondary lead, the cost side provides some support for prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

This week (May 29, 2026 – June 4, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 66.58%, up 3.6 percentage points WoW. This week, a large smelter in Henan completed maintenance and resumed production, driving the regional operating rate to rise. In Hunan, a small-to-medium-sized smelter underwent maintenance shutdown last week, with output contracting this week. However, production at other enterprises in the region edged up slightly, with supply and demand factors offsetting each other, and the overall operating rate in Hunan edged up. In Yunnan, smelter production remained stable, with operating rates maintained at last week's level. Smelters in other regions operated normally, with operating rates flat WoW.