[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Supply and Demand Both Subdued Yet Inventory Buildup Risk Persists; Short-term Lead Prices Will Remain Under Pressure] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to analyze and study current economic situation and economic work. Recently, lead prices have continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with suppliers' hedging willingness strengthening and some lead ingots being gradually transferred to delivery warehouses...

Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, LME Zinc Posts Bullish Candlestick] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,569.5/mt. At the start of the session, it attempted to rise above the daily average line but met resistance and pulled back, touching a low of $3,555/mt. Subsequently, LME zinc consolidated and shot up to hit a high of $3,594/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc fluctuated lower towards the daily average line and traded around that level. It eventually closed up at $3,573/mt, gaining $5.5/mt, or 0.15%. Trading volume decreased to 7,361 lots, while open interest fell by 4,171 lots to 246,900 lots.

[SMM Lead Morning Briefing: Supply-Demand Weakness Persists in Stalemate, Limited Upside Momentum for Lead Prices] The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, the US dollar index weakened, and base metals broadly turned positive. Recently, lead prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with upstream and downstream enterprises stuck in a purchase and sales stalemate...

SMM July 30: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets mostly rose, with only SHFE copper, SHFE zinc, and LME copper falling. SHFE copper fell 0.26%, SHFE zinc fell 0.06%, LME copper fell 0.16%, LME nickel led the gains with a 1.15% rise, and the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.45%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel rose 0.59%, rebar led the declines with a 1.14% drop, hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil down 0.79% and iron ore down 0.74%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.04%, while coke fell 0.57%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.66% and COMEX silver gained 0.64%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.9% and SHFE silver surged 1.84%. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from their record high in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since end-2023, though most still expect central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability to provide support. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, then suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up interest rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the geopolitical conflict erupted, spot gold has dropped about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:42 on July 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [China’s total social logistics value exceeded 180 trillion yuan in H1] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for H1 this year yesterday (July 29). In H1, logistics demand continued to expand, marked by structural optimization and momentum shift. China’s total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan in H1, up 5.1% YoY, outpacing GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, demonstrating the logistics sector’s enhanced role in supporting and driving national economic growth. By quarter, growth was 6.2% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, maintaining a steady yet progressing trend. (CCTV News) [CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and 17 other departments, jointly released the National Climate Change Response 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the Plan, by 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025, and CO2 emissions per unit of product in sectors covered by the national carbon emission trading market will drop by around 3% from 2025. A national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is credible, transparent, methodologically unified, broadly participatory and aligned with international standards will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be largely in place; monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, with a reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes of CO2e; the climate adaptation work system will be refined; climate-adaptive society construction will achieve phased progress; and awareness and capabilities in tackling climate change will continue to improve. China’s influence, guidance, shaping power and moral appeal in global climate governance will significantly increase. (from Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.59% to 100.82. The US Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote, as three regional Fed bank presidents voted for a rate hike. Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed’s reduced forward guidance on policy intentions has given the central bank more opportunity to listen to the market rather than unilaterally guide market expectations. Warsh noted that US Treasury yields had risen over the past few months, which he believed reflected solid economic fundamentals. He said: “Economic output has been robust. Capital spending and productivity have performed strongly. The labor market is stable and remains resilient. The bond market is sending many of the same messages.” (Jin10 Data) Fed Chairman Warsh said that since the June meeting, financial markets have already priced in much of the Fed’s tightening effects, so he disagreed with describing this decision to hold rates as a “pause.” Warsh said: “I would not characterize today’s decision as a pause in any sense. If you had to label it a pause, then the market’s performance says the exact opposite.” Since the Fed’s mid-June meeting, US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have each risen about 20bp. Warsh noted that during this period, financial markets did not “pause” adjustments; instead, they continuously repriced based on inflation data and economic growth: on the one hand, inflation data influenced expectations; on the other, strong growth pushed both nominal and real rates higher. He said: “The Fed today did not explicitly adjust the policy rate—that’s correct. But I think this is just the beginning of the policy story, not the end.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 63.2% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 0% (vs. 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively before the Fed decision). By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 26.2%, with a cumulative 25bp hike at 55.6%, a cumulative 50bp hike at 18.2%, and a cumulative 75bp hike at 0% (vs. 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the decision). (Jin10 Data APP) After the Fed announced it held rates steady on Wednesday, Citi still expects the Fed to cut rates later this year. Economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark noted in a client report that Warsh’s press conference sent two dovish signals: first, he said the Fed would assess progress on curbing inflation using a wide range of data; second, he hinted that rising real yields had already tightened financial conditions to some extent. Citi continues to expect rising unemployment in coming months, which will lead the Fed to cut rates in October, December, and January next year. (Wall Street CN) Macro: Today will see the release of the US Fed interest rate decision (as of July 29), US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25, US June core PCE price index YoY, US June personal spending MoM, US Q2 advance annualized real GDP QoQ, US Q2 advance real personal consumption QoQ, US Q2 advance annualized core PCE QoQ, US June core PCE MoM; Eurozone Q2 advance GDP YoY, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial sentiment, Eurozone July economic sentiment; France Q2 advance GDP YoY; Switzerland July KOF leading indicator; UK BoE rate decision (as of July 30); Germany Q2 advance non-adjusted GDP YoY, Germany July preliminary CPI MoM, and other data. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic surged, with WTI up 6.74% and Brent up 7.35%. With the resumption of major airstrikes in the Middle East, hopes that the US-Israel and Iran conflict would soon end were dashed. Meanwhile, industry data showing a decline in US crude inventories provided further support. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that the renewal of military strikes in the Middle East and renewed emphasis by Iranian officials on controlling shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz—where oil flows are sluggish—are again pushing up oil prices. US President Trump said hours before the Fed decision that the US would carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran, driving prices higher thereafter. DBS energy research head Suvro Sarkar said that with the volatile Middle East conflict, Brent crude will continue to swing wildly in the $80-$100 per barrel range in the near term. (Jin10 Data APP) Kpler head of commodity research Matt Smith said global fuel supplies are extremely tight, which is encouraging refiners to run at full throttle to capture unusually strong margins. After supply disruptions from the Ukraine and Iran wars, the fuel market has almost no buffer. “Super-sized refining margins continue to drive refiners to run as hard as they can, leading to significant draws in crude oil inventories.” (Wall Street CN) US refiners are converting crude into gasoline and diesel at a pace not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic, but amid a historic fuel shortage crisis, even running at full tilt is unlikely to curb surging prices in the near term. According to EIA data, US refiners processed an average of 17 million barrels per day of crude oil last week, running flat out to meet global and domestic fuel demand. That was the highest weekly average since September 2019. In the Midwest, refineries even set an all-time high for weekly crude processing. (Wall Street CN)

SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading: