In recent years, spot premiums in the European zinc market have shown significantly greater volatility amid fluctuations in energy costs, regional supply-demand mismatches, frequent temporary smelter curtailments, and shifts in inter-regional trade flows. As one of Europe’s most important hubs for non-ferrous metals logistics, warehousing and spot trade, Rotterdam has long played a key role in the distribution, storage and circulation of imported refined zinc in Europe......

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially shift to quoting against the 2605 contract. Market structure side, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts ran within a range of 100-30 yuan/mt. Suppliers who previously established long-short arbitrage positions under the backwardation structure are now more inclined to hold open interest for delivery to capture the price spread gains under the current structure, with limited willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing some support for spot premiums. Demand side, copper prices rose again intraday, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, with limited acceptance of current price levels and increasingly cautious purchasing. In addition, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the last trading day; if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, this may exert periodic pressure on spot premiums. Overall, under the dual effects of price spread structure support and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,181.5/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to touch a low of $13,139.5/mt, then the price center moved up steadily to reach a high of $13,305/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing at $13,296/mt, up 1.31%, with trading volume at 25,300 lots and open interest at 289,300 lots, down 2,580 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a low of 101,580 yuan/mt, then the price center surged upward to probe 102,220 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to ultimately close at 102,150 yuan/mt, up 1.44%, with trading volume at 42,000 lots and open interest at 165,300 lots, down 2,780 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, tomorrow will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In terms of market structure, copper prices rose during the day, but the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts maintained a certain width, and suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. According to SMM, after copper prices returned above the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, orders from downstream enterprises declined notably, and demand-side support weakened somewhat. In addition, some suppliers had already begun making tentative offers against the next-month contract during the day. Since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, based on the price spread conversion, the passive premium room after the contract rollover is limited. Spot prices against the front-month contract are expected to be at a slight premium or near parity tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.