Some major mills added maintenance shutdowns, and May supply pressure is lower than previous expectations. Demand side, sheets & plates demand is expected to weaken marginally in mid-to-late May. Hot-rolled coil inventory is expected to continue destocking over the next 2–3 weeks, with limited accumulation of supply-demand imbalances before month-end in May. The energy premium outside China is unlikely to ease in the short term, hot metal production continues at elevated levels, and coil prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the near term. The pullback in coking coal prices driven by expectations of easing U.S.-Iran tensions and the periodic weakening of hot-rolled coil export order-taking are expected to cause prices to come under pressure briefly, with limited downside.

SMM May 8: In the first week after the holiday, prices of most cobalt products remained stable. Spot refined cobalt prices also held steady after rising 3,500 yuan/mt on the first trading day post-holiday. Meanwhile, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday. The market currently holds an optimistic view on downstream production schedules for May. Under these circumstances, how will cobalt series products perform? SMM compiled the relevant price changes of cobalt series products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, spot refined cobalt prices rose post-holiday and then maintained a fluctuating trend this week. As of May 8, spot refined cobalt prices rose to 422,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,500 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt from 422,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day before the holiday, a gain of 0.83%. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters maintained parity; traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to accelerate capital turnover. On the demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued to maintain just-in-need restocking strategies, strictly controlling raw material inventory risks. From the price ratio perspective, the metal price spread between refined cobalt prices and low-priced cobalt salts has narrowed significantly, and enterprises' willingness to produce refined cobalt through re-dissolution has pulled back accordingly. In the short term, refined cobalt prices are expected to move sideways, and future price rises still need effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 8, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained at 93,000-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt, flat compared with the April 30 quote. Supply and demand side, mainstream cobalt sulphate brand price centers remained in the range of 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that previously offered discounts for shipments have slightly raised their quotes, and low-priced resources below 90,000 yuan/mt have decreased notably. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still consuming previous inventory overall, with weak purchase willingness to enter the market, and only a few with just-in-need requirements restocked in small quantities at low prices. However, some Co3O4 enterprises have recently increased inquiry activities, and procurement sentiment showed signs of recovery. Production schedule side, ternary and LCO enterprises both saw restorative increases in May production schedules MoM. It is expected that as downstream gradually initiates restocking, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased recovery rebound. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot prices edged up 250 yuan/mt on May 8, quoted at 114,200-117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,600 yuan/mt. In terms of market performance, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot market generally reported scarce inquiries. On the supply side, shipments from some top-tier players declined significantly recently, with liquidity under pressure and quotes slightly loosened; while small and medium-sized producers had already lowered quotes earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and have gradually stabilized recently, with very limited downside room for further price cuts. On the demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, affected by weak demand, faced significant shipment pressure themselves, with weak purchase willingness for cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments showed restocking willingness recently as inventory continued to be depleted. Overall, the market still lacks clear momentum for a price breakthrough. Although occasional low-price transactions occurred, constrained by enterprise performance pressure, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall market. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices have limited downside room, with raw material costs providing strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with substantive changes likely to wait until mid-to-late May. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday Co3O4 spot prices remained stable. As of May 8, Co3O4 spot prices were maintained at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Spot market, according to SMM, the post-holiday Co3O4 market continued the sluggish trend from before the holiday. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but as cobalt intermediate products were in a phase of tight supply and cobalt chloride prices remained firm, effective cost support was provided for Co3O4 prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mainly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a neutral level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the core variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Considering that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring phased changes. Raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices remained stable post-holiday. As of May 8, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices were maintained at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, according to SMM, most suppliers held relatively optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with offers continuing to stay above $26/lb. On the demand side, there was no significant change. Affected by insufficient momentum for cobalt salt prices to follow the upward trend, the market maintained only small volumes of just-in-time procurement, with intended transaction prices fluctuating around $25.8/lb. Shipping side, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transportation. In April, only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings, with arrivals expected from May to June. Dragged by tight shipping capacity on African routes, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. News side, recently, multiple enterprises along the cobalt industry chain released their Q1 earnings reports. Tengyuan Cobalt reported that the company achieved revenue of 2.559 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 75.13% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 531 million yuan, up 330.11% YoY. In addition, the company also released its 2025 annual report, showing total revenue of 8.34 billion yuan in 2025, up 27.47% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 11.11 yuan, up 62.11% YoY. Meanwhile, the gross margin of its main products reached 27.73%, up 5.74% YoY, and cobalt production and sales hit new historical highs. Regarding the reasons for the company's strong performance growth during the reporting period, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that first, the company operated steadily and established a diversified raw material procurement system with strong supply security capabilities. In particular, the stable supply of secondary resources or recycled raw materials effectively hedged against the impact of fluctuations in primary ore procurement, effectively enhancing supply chain resilience and providing support for performance growth. Second, as capacity from fundraising investment projects was gradually released, and benefiting from YoY increases in market prices of metals such as cobalt and copper, the company's product production, sales, and profitability improved significantly, with economies of scale becoming more evident. Third, the company continued to promote lean management reform, comprehensively implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, enhanced operational efficiency through strict cost control, and continuously optimized its client structure, strengthening overall profitability. As of the end of Q1 2026, Tengyuan Cobalt had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content of cobalt products (including 8,000 mt of refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content of nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content of manganese products, 60,000 mt of copper products, 20,000 mt of ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt of Co3O4, and 5,000 mt of lithium carbonate. In addition, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the pricing of its cobalt products such as cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride is based onprices, adjusted according to discount coefficients and price fluctuations. Tengyuan Cobalt also stated that the company's core products have been widely used in traditional end-use sectors such as consumer electronics, NEVs, and aerospace, and are continuously extending into emerging technology fields empowered by AI. In particular, the company's Co3O4 and related product series are primarily used in high-end LCO systems, fully compatible with product terminals requiring high energy density and high stability battery applications. Targeting emerging technology tracks, the company is leveraging its own advantages to actively enter rapidly growing fields such as solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, eVTOL, low-altitude economy, AI computing infrastructure, and high-end energy storage. As emerging markets gradually scale up in the future, the company will rely on its advantages in raw material supply, high-purity manufacturing technology, and client resources to continuously optimize its product mix, consolidating its strengths in traditional sectors while fully benefiting from the growing material demand driven by the development of emerging technology industries. It is also worth noting that as of March 31, 2026, the company's fundraised investment project — the "Annual 30,000 mt Copper and 2,000 mt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Smelter Project" — had passed the reviews of China's Ministry of Commerce and the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and obtained the enterprise overseas investment certificate. The joint venture company (Xincheng New Energy Investment Co., Ltd.) and the project company (Hechuang New Energy Mining Simplified Joint-Stock Company) had been established. Currently, the overall project progress is in line with the planned schedule, with project design, land leveling, and main building civil works completed, and installation of main equipment currently underway. Hanrui Cobalt previously released its Q1 report, stating that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.865 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 24.19% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm at 64.7465 million yuan, up 51.07% YoY. The performance change was mainly attributable to increased sales volume and prices of copper products as well as sales of nickel products.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

Nickel Ore " Transition in Pricing Systems and Standardization of Pyrometallurgical Ore Benchmarks; Convergence of Iron, Cobalt, and Chrome Elements " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel market experienced overall price volatility this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the first half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $17,802/dmt (up $868.57 or 5.13% from $16,933.57 in late April). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.56/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $74.5–$77.5/wmt, an increase of $1 from last week, remaining largely stable. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28.33/wmt, down $2 from the previous week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts Pyrometallurgical Ore: As the rainy season concludes in Halmahera and Sulawesi, mine production is expected to rebound significantly in May. Despite RKAB approvals reaching 90%, spot supply for high-grade saprolite remains tight. However, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. While the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore to mitigate the pressure of high-grade shortages and surging costs. Current pricing follows either a "fixed price" or "HPM + $7–$10 premium" model. Furthermore, some smelters are implementing standardized benchmarks for pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%), regardless of actual ore variations. Bon have shrunk to minimal levels as most are now covered by fixed premiums. Hydrometallurgical Ore: Limonite prices have trended downward, failing to follow the uptick in the new HPM. Demand is under pressure due to potential MHP production cuts caused by a sulfuric acid shortage in May. With relatively stable inventories, smelters continue to exert strong downward pressure on prices. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $47.82, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $64.85; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 230–240 million wmt. The final quota is widely expected to be finalized by the end of April. Due to the convergence of reduced RKAB expectations, resource uncertainty, and high-grade ore shortages, some smelters have increased trade dividends and premiums to secure supply. The market is closely monitoring Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) . Due to a severely depleted RKAB quota for 2026, WBN plans to enter a "maintenance and care" phase starting in May. The company is actively pursuing a quota increase to alleviate the ore shortage at the IWIP industrial park. During this period, its downstream NPI plants will consume existing strategic inventories to maintain operations. 5. Regulatory Revisions: PP 19/2025 On May 8, the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal held a public hearing on the revision of PP 19/2025 , seeking feedback on adjustments to mineral royalty rates. Nickel Ore: The revision proposes lowering the minimum HMA threshold from <$18,000/t to <$16,000/t, and the maximum threshold from ≥$31,000/t to ≥$26,000/t. The tax tiers would be refined from 5 to 6 levels, with rates ranging from 14% to 19%. Impact: Based on today’s Nickel HMA of $17,802, the applicable royalty rate would rise from 14% to 15% if the revision is implemented. Additional Provisions: A 2% independent levy is proposed for cobalt in nickel matte and non-nickel smelting products, while a 2.5% tax rate is proposed for alloy pig iron. The impact on mainstream NPI projects will depend on Indonesia’s final product classification criteria. Nickel Pig Iron " NPI Average Prices Rally Strongly; Market Enters High-Level Deadlock " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price increased by RMB 30.5 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1150.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 3.58 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.78 per nickel unit. This week, the high-nickel pig iron market first declined and then rose. This week, favorable policies and exchange movements drove prices steadily higher, pushing the price center further up. However, by the end of the week, the market transitioned from a unilateral uptrend into a high-level deadlock. Upstream producers maintained a strong stance on pricing, with some anchoring their target at RMB 1,200/nickel unit and showing a high reluctance to sell. Conversely, downstream stainless steel mills showed weak acceptance of these high prices. Having completed their initial restocking, these mills saw a decline in procurement appetite, with the maximum acceptable price being limited. Additionally, a correction in the exchange market fueled "fear of heights" (market caution); despite active inquiries, actual transaction volumes were significantly lower than those seen before the holiday. The price gap between high and low-grade materials widened further, intensifying the structural divergence of supply. Looking ahead, while cost support remains, demand follow-through is insufficient. NPI prices are expected to remain in a high-level tug-of-war in the short term. Based on high-nickel pig iron cash costs calculated from nickel ore prices 25 days ago, smelter profit margins continued to recover this week, with many operations returning to profitability. On the raw material side, auxiliary material prices rose, while ore prices remained stable in the Philippines and saw a slight correction in Indonesia. Overall, the expansion of domestic smelter profits this week was primarily driven by the upward shift in NPI prices coupled with lower raw material costs. For next week, raw material prices are unlikely to see significant increases, and NPI prices are expected to remain at high levels, which should lead to further improvements in smelter profit margins. ​​​​​​​

China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

SMM May 8 update: This week, SMM #1 lead ingot prices rose before fluctuating downward, and secondary refined lead premiums converged from wide discounts toward parity. At the beginning of the week, smelter quotes were somewhat divergent, generally ranging from a discount of 0-75 yuan/mt, with downstream purchasing on demand and trading improving. Mid-week, lead prices pulled back, and quote divergence widened to a range of discount 75 yuan/mt to premium 50 yuan/mt, with spot order trading turning sluggish. At the weekend, smelters held prices firm, narrowing quotes to near parity, with downstream mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach and sluggish transactions. Currently, both supply and demand were weak, and premiums are expected to move sideways within the range of discount 75 to premium 50 yuan/mt next week. Affected by pressure on finished lead profits and rising scrap battery raw material costs, smelter losses intensified: as of May 8, large enterprises posted losses of 141 yuan/mt, and small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 345 yuan/mt. Although smelter production cuts and shutdowns have increased, the tight raw material situation remains unchanged, and with costs staying elevated, smelter losses are expected to see little significant relief.