Platinum prices held up well today, with precious metals futures seeing a technical rebound after being in the doldrums for consecutive sessions. However, lacking macro-driven catalysts, upside room is expected to be limited. In July, the platinum-palladium 232 window will open. If the US imposes tariffs on platinum and palladium after the 180-day negotiation period, it will lend support to prices in the short term. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum futures contract PT2608 closed at 396.95 yuan/g, up 1.03%. The inverted spread between the selling price of SGE platinum 9995 and PT2608 held at around 5 yuan/g. On the spot side, mainstream quotations were at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract, with premiums basically flat from the previous trading day. Today, the spread between the October and August GFEX platinum futures contracts widened slightly. In early trading, spot platinum suppliers mostly offered premiums of 0.5–1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract. Later, as futures rose, some suppliers adjusted offers to near parity and deals were concluded, while downstream buyers made small purchases based on orders. Overall, spot platinum trading was normal today.

SMM July 21: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE tin edged up 0.77%. SHFE copper rose 0.99%, while SHFE aluminum fell 0.34%. SHFE zinc gained 0.27%. SHFE lead edged down, and SHFE nickel edged up. Additionally, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.3%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.78%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract dropped 4.45%. The most-traded silicon metal contract slipped 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.22%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.39%, rebar and HRC fell 0.84% and 0.73% respectively. Stainless steel rose 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.58%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 2.76%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:44, LME metals all rose. LME copper gained 0.14%, LME aluminum rose 0.51%, and LME lead edged up 0.45%. LME zinc and LME tin climbed 0.6% and 0.35% respectively. LME nickel rose 0.59%. Precious metals: As of 11:44, COMEX gold rose 0.83% and COMEX silver gained 1.61%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.03%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 3.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.03% and the most-traded palladium futures contract gained 1.53%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 0.73% to 2,792 points. Select futures midday quotes as of 11:44 on July 21: Spot Market and Fundamentals Silver: As US-Iran ceasefire talks showed signs of progress, silver posted a technical rebound but lacked substantial positive drivers, limiting the rebound’s strength. The spot market saw weak supply and demand, with deals near parity and a strong wait-and-see sentiment… Macro Front China: [Ministry of Transport: 15th Five-Year Plan period to focus on promoting low-carbon alternatives for transportation power and driving green transformation of transport infrastructure] Cai Tuanjie, Director General of the Transport Services Department and Chief Safety Officer of the Ministry of Transport, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be focused on promoting low-carbon alternatives for transportation power, driving the green transformation of transport infrastructure, accelerating the optimization and adjustment of the transportation structure, continuing to deepen pollution prevention and control, improving the statistical accounting and monitoring system for transportation carbon emissions, and intensifying efforts to advance the green and low-carbon transition in the transportation sector, laying a solid foundation for building a country with a strong transport network and a beautiful China. (Jin10 Data APP) [China to earmark 22 billion yuan to support retirement and renewal of old operating trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Director General of the Transport Services Department and Chief Safety Officer of the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that China will continue implementing the retirement and renewal action for old operating trucks in 2026, earmarking 22 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds to support the retirement and renewal of old operating trucks, with a focus on supporting their replacement with new energy heavy trucks, boosting consumption in the new energy heavy truck market through the intensified program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins. (Xinhua News Agency) [China to build over 3,000 battery charging and swapping stations for electric heavy trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Director General of the Transport Services Department and Chief Safety Officer of the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that China will build over 3,000 battery charging and swapping stations for electric heavy trucks, focusing on busy national highways and national/provincial arterial road freight routes; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing and other city cluster metropolitan areas; and key nodes such as freight hubs, ports, mines, factories, and industrial parks, thereby promoting the connection of these energy replenishment facilities into lines and networks. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve a net injection of 16.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 253 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 236.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 16.5 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:44, the US dollar index was flat at 100.97. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos noted that based on forecasts converting PPI and CPI data into PCE terms, US June core PCE is expected to post a mild 0.18% increase (3.3% YoY), which would mark the lowest monthly increase since November last year. The headline PCE for June is expected to decline 0.07%, bringing the 12-month YoY rate down to 3.7%. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 55.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike is 8.9%. Other currencies: FX strategists at Commerzbank stated that given escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, the euro should benefit if the ECB strongly signals its willingness to raise rates further. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged this week but deliver another hike in September. How clearly the ECB indicates its readiness to continue hiking beyond September will be a decisive factor limiting the euro's downside room against the dollar if the US-Iran conflict escalates further. Strategists at Mitsubishi UFJ noted that the probability of a consecutive rate hike by the ECB this week is extremely low, with even hawkish officials like Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel expressing a preference for keeping rates unchanged. The continued rebound in energy prices supports the forecast for a further 25 bp rate hike in September. Eurozone interest rate markets have almost fully priced in two more rate hikes by the ECB before year-end, pushing short-term interest rates back near their highs for the year. Softer US inflation data has weakened the impact of rising energy prices on expectations for US Fed rate hikes, shifting the interest rate differential in favor of the euro. (Jin10 Data APP) Economic data: Data to be released today include Switzerland's June trade balance, the UK's May ILO three-month unemployment rate, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 4, among others. Crude oil: As of 11:44, crude oil prices fell on both exchanges, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 0.68%. Hopes for progress in US-Iran conflict talks pressured oil prices lower. Despite Tuesday's pullback, the Middle East situation remains a potential market disruptor. Houthi threats to blockade the Red Sea export route keep the market focused on whether Saudi Arabian exports will be affected. BlackRock strategists believe there is currently no evidence that an escalation in the Middle East would cause a sufficient enough shock to economic growth to alter the market's risk appetite stance. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► Other metals' spot midday reviews will be updated shortly, please stay tuned~

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Situation Fluctuates, Silver Price Sees Technical Rebound, Spot Transactions Maintain Parity] SMM July 21, ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran show signs of progress. Silver undergoes a technical rebound but lacks substantial positive drivers, limiting the rebound’s strength. The spot market sees weak supply and demand, with transactions near parity and a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment.

SMM July 21 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper rose 0.69%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.78%, SHFE lead edged up 0.06%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, and SHFE tin fell 0.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.35%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.8%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore fell 1.12%, rebar fell 0.77%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.7%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 2.73%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 2.23%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals nearly all moved lower. LME copper rose 0.86%. LME aluminum fell 0.96%, LME lead fell 0.53%, LME zinc fell 0.37%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. Overnight, Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.17%, and COMEX silver rose 0.6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract edged up 0.05%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract continued its upward momentum from the previous trading day, rising 1.13%. As of 7:03 AM on July 21, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Zheng Shanjie chairs private enterprise symposium: accelerate cultivation of new consumption growth points, promote smooth transition between old and new growth drivers] On July 20, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a private enterprise symposium to communicate with five enterprises—Sanquan Food, HYC (Hua Xing Yuan Chuang), Yeahmobi, Galbot, and Feishang Technology—covering sectors such as food processing, industrial automation test equipment manufacturing, marketing services, humanoid robot R&D, and IoT services. The discussion focused on the H1 economic situation and H2 economic work. The NDRC will thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, leverage the combined effects of existing and incremental policies, accelerate the cultivation of new consumption growth points, continue promoting the implementation of major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers, accelerate scenario cultivation and openness, further build a high-quality data supply system, and push forward with the construction of a unified national market, continuously strengthening the endogenous driving forces of economic development and stimulating market vitality. [National teleconference on mid-year work progress for consumer goods trade-ins held in Beijing] On July 17, the Ministry of Commerce held a national teleconference on mid-year work progress for consumer goods trade-ins, summarizing the progress and results of policy implementation in H1 and deploying key tasks for the next step. Assistant Minister of Commerce Yuan Xiaoming attended and delivered a speech, and commerce departments from Hebei, Henan, Hubei, and Sichuan made exchange speeches. The meeting noted that since 2026, the Ministry of Commerce has earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, working with various regions and relevant departments to solidly and orderly promote the implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy, continuously expanding its coverage to benefit over 150 million person-times, effectively driving consumption upgrading and promoting resource recycling, achieving multiple policy effects. The meeting emphasized that all regions and departments should further enhance their political stance, establish and practice a correct view of performance, and meticulously implement the trade-in policy; further intensify efforts, strengthen inter-departmental coordination, widely publicize the policy, and broaden its coverage; and continue to enrich offline consumption scenarios, optimize the process for subsidy review and disbursement, making it easier for the public to participate in and benefit from the policy, thereby enhancing their sense of gain. (Ministry of Commerce website) [Just now, Wu Qing speaks out: fully maintain stable market operations] On the morning of July 21, Wu Qing, Party Secretary and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, conducted a survey at a securities business department in Beijing and chaired an investor symposium, engaging in face-to-face exchanges with eight representatives of various investors, including large, medium, and small retail investors, to solicit opinions and suggestions on promoting stable and healthy development of the capital market. [China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association: Key monitored coal enterprises saw decreases in both ten-day production and sales in early July] The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association released its ten-day coal market dispatch report. In early July, due to stricter safety supervision, mine maintenance, and rainfall in producing areas, overall coal supply contracted somewhat, with key monitored coal enterprises seeing decreases in both ten-day production and sales. Looking at demand by sector: In the power sector, increased rainfall boosted hydropower generation, and combined with increased new energy output, thermal power generation and power plant coal consumption pulled back. The steel industry showed clear off-season characteristics, with weak demand; pig iron production and coal consumption by key monitored coke and steel enterprises were below levels seen in the same period last year. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index continued its upward momentum from the previous two trading days, rising another 0.21% to 100.97. Recurring US-Iran tensions drove wild swings in oil prices, which intensified market concerns about inflation and raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Fed’s Hammack stated that inflation is too high and broad-based, and persistently high inflation is a greater concern. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 36%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 55.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 8.9%. (Jinshi Data APP) The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields will narrow further in the coming months, and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a full inversion of the yield curve, according to Capital Economics. "One reason for this difference is that short-term real rate expectations have risen more than long-term real rate expectations, likely reflecting strong economic data," Capital Economics also expects that the 2-year and 10-year yield curve will flatten further as investors price in additional rate hikes. "We forecast the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points over the next year, compared to the 40 basis points currently priced in by markets," they said. (Jinshi Data APP) Macro Front: Today, data releases include Switzerland's June trade balance, the UK's May ILO unemployment rate (3-month), UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 4, among others. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures contracts continued their upward momentum from the previous trading day, with WTI oil rising 0.78% and Brent oil rising 0.81%. The oil market experienced significant swings on Monday. The ninth round of bombing by Iran pushed oil prices initially higher, but subsequent diplomatic statements regarding a 10-day ceasefire negotiation caused prices to pull back. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump hinted that the US military would launch a tough retaliation against Iran. However, the Trump administration has not completely ruled out seeking a diplomatic solution. US Secretary of State Rubio stated in an interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration "remains open to diplomatic solutions." According to Xinhua, a senior Iranian official said that mediators in the US-Iran talks have proposed an initiative to Iran aimed at de-escalating the current situation, suggesting a 10-day ceasefire to seek the resumption of the memorandum of understanding reached between the two nations last month. However, a Wallstreetcn article pointed out that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had nearly stalled, with a Greek shipowner reporting that two oil tankers had been attacked. Data from the monitoring website Hormuz Strait Monitor shows that transits on July 20 were around 12 vessels per day, a plunge of over 89% from the pre-conflict daily average of 110 vessels, severely restricting the shipment of crude oil and LNG. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, according to Bloomberg, as the US continues to strike Iran, vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are being targeted by Iran, bringing traffic in this vital waterway to a near standstill on Monday. Ship tracking data showed a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier was one of the few vessels apparently attempting to transit the strait, switching off its transponder as it moved from the Persian Gulf toward Omani waters near the strait. An LPG carrier flagged as part of the "dark fleet" involved in Iranian exports also appeared to head toward the strait. Another bulk carrier registered in the Marshall Islands began emitting signals from the Gulf of Oman after previously indicating it was in the Persian Gulf on Sunday morning, suggesting it had transited the Strait of Hormuz with its transponder switched off. (Bloomberg)

July 17, 2026 Gold is trading at $3,992.55 and silver at $55.44 — both at or near multi-month lows. The cause is an oil shock that most investors are filing under the wrong heading. It is not hitting precious metals once, but twice: through interest rate expectations, and through the production costs of the mines. The starting point: 29% below the high Gold tested the $4,000 mark on Thursday, leaving it roughly 29% below the all-time high of $5,595.47 set on 29 January 2026 — the weakest level since November 2025. Silver has fared worse. At $55.44, the white metal sits some 54% below its January peak of around $121. The gold-silver ratio has consequently climbed to 72.0, up from about 69.6 in the middle of the week. Silver, in other words, continues to lose ground in relative terms — a classic sign that what is being traded here is not a precious metals thesis but an interest rate thesis. The first hit: oil drives rate expectations The trigger does not sit in the bullion market. It sits in the Strait of Hormuz. Escalation between the United States and Iran has driven oil prices higher and reinforced concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Brent stood at $85.92 on 14 July, its highest since 15 June, after gaining 9.6% the previous day. The transit figures speak for themselves: only 57 crossings were recorded from Friday through Sunday — a drop of more than 50% against the prior week. On 15 July, Washington additionally reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports. For the Federal Reserve, this is a problem. Softer-than-expected US inflation data has largely ruled out a July rate increase, yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. The market remains split: traders currently price roughly a 51% probability of a hike in September — down from about 60% at the start of July. The June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting at least one hike before year-end, eight projecting no change, and one projecting a cut. Warsh submitted no dot of his own. Higher energy prices strengthen the expectation that the Fed will need to keep policy tighter for longer, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding gold. That is the first hit. What makes it notable: an oil-driven inflation impulse arriving while the central bank is boxed in is precisely the textbook stagflationary setup investors buy gold to hedge. For now, the rate channel is beating the crisis channel. The second hit: oil is eating into mining margins This is where it becomes uncomfortable for gold equity investors — and this is the point most analyses skip. On paper, producers are in excellent shape. With gold averaging $4,700 an ounce and AISC below $2,000, sector margins in 2026 sit at historically exceptional levels and are generating record cash flows. Share prices do not reflect that. GDX was trading at $74.82 on 14 July, against a 52-week range of $50.45 to $117.18. Year-to-date, the junior index GDXJ is down 8.61% and GDX down 8.2%. Over one month, the pullback hit the juniors harder at -4.79% versus -3.78% for the seniors. The reason: the market is still grappling with the reality of higher energy costs, which will continue to overshadow gold miners' record-high margins in 2026. Diesel for the fleet, power for the mill, freight for consumables — energy is one of the largest single line items in an AISC calculation. The same oil price that is pressuring gold through rate expectations is therefore pressuring producers a second time through the cost side. For explorers and developers without cash flow, a third effect follows: rising capital costs make financings more expensive at precisely the moment share prices are on the floor. What is holding the floor: the central banks Set against this picture is a remarkably stable pillar of demand. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 — more than in the previous quarter and above the five-year average. Poland added 14 tonnes in April alone (45 tonnes year-to-date), the People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 18 consecutive months, and the Czech National Bank added 2 tonnes. The decisive detail: this buying continued while gold sat 28% below its January peak. The official sector is not buying the trend. It is buying the allocation. The World Gold Council's survey of 76 central banks, published on 16 June, reinforces the point: 89% expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next twelve months, a record 45% plan to add to their own reserves (up from 43% in 2025), and 74% expect the US dollar's share of global reserves to decline over the next five years. Standard Chartered supplies the counterweight. In a note dated 24 June, analyst Suki Cooper put roughly 298 tonnes of ETF gold below its holders' average cost basis at prices around $4,000 — up from 270 tonnes when gold was still above $4,250. That is some $38 billion held by investors whose rational response to any recovery is to exit near breakeven. Those positions are not support. They are a ceiling. Assessment and outlook The forecasting landscape is split accordingly. Morgan Stanley concedes that its $5,200 target for the second half now depends increasingly on a revival in ETF demand; Goldman Sachs has already cut both its December forecast and its ETF demand projections. J.P. Morgan, by contrast, is sticking with $6,300 by year-end. HSBC in January flagged a range of $3,950 to $5,050 for 2026 — the lower bound is being tested today. OCBC, conversely, expects prices to keep falling on rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and weaker investor demand. Our reading: the decisive question for the coming weeks is not whether central banks keep buying — they do — but whether the oil price stays where it is. If Brent retreats, the rate pressure and the cost pressure unwind simultaneously, and the miners become the leveraged expression, because record margins would then be valued without the energy caveat. If oil stays elevated, the sector is likely to remain under valuation pressure even with a stable gold price. Two dates frame the question. The FOMC meets on 28 and 29 July — CME data puts the probability of rates being held at 3.50% to 3.75% in July at 66.3%, so the language on September is what matters. Late July into early August brings the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends for Q2. That report is the test of whether official-sector demand is still absorbing the ETF outflows. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-oil-price-double-hit-gold-miners

The Minerals Council South Africa stated that after five consecutive months of growth, South Africa’s mining production in May declined 4.5% YoY, reflecting rising energy costs, heightened global trade uncertainties, and slowing momentum in commodity price gains. Despite the decline in May, total mining production in the first five months of this year still increased 3.5% YoY, but the growth rate has continued to slow, indicating that the recovery momentum of production is not yet solid. Platinum group metals remained the main pillar of growth in South Africa’s mineral sales. From January to May this year, PGMs sales surged 109.4% YoY, while gold sales rose 44.7%, boosting total mineral sales by approximately 100 billion rand compared to the same period last year.