SMM, July 2: Raw Material Side: This week, the domestic petroleum coke market saw average shipment performance, with prices showing mixed performance during the week. Indicators continued to diverge, and the price center declined somewhat. Specifically, this week, transaction prices for petroleum coke at CNOOC’s Binzhou refinery were largely stable, Taizhou Petrochemical resumed operations mid-week, and the Zhoushan Petrochemical unit remained shut down for maintenance. Prices for low-sulphur petroleum coke from PetroChina’s affiliates in north-east China were generally stable with a slight rise, petroleum coke prices at Sinopec’s refineries were broadly stable, and shipments from local refineries performed poorly, with petroleum coke prices falling under pressure. The latest SMM data showed that the Shandong 2# petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 4,067.69 yuan/mt, down 1.49% from last Thursday; the Shandong 3# petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 3,675.48 yuan/mt, down 3.28% from last Thursday; and the Shandong 4# petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 1,908.99 yuan/mt, down 7.57% from last Thursday. Affected by concentrated maintenance at some refineries, the operating rate of China’s coking units stayed low in early July, tightening domestic petroleum coke supply further. Demand showed structural divergence. High aluminum operating rates provided stable support for prebaked anode demand, and carbon enterprises’ monthly restocking led to improved transactions for medium-sulphur petroleum coke; anode material enterprises continued to focus on cost control and purchasing as needed, and upward momentum for low-sulphur petroleum coke prices was relatively insufficient. The petroleum coke market is expected to remain divergent in the short term. The coal tar pitch market held up well this week. As of this Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,875 yuan/mt, up 1.46% from last Thursday. Coal tar prices stayed high and stagnant, the operating rate of deep-processing enterprises edged up slightly, and supply increased marginally; downstream anode enterprises mainly restocked as needed at the start of the month, with a stalemate between sellers and buyers continuing. Raw material cost support remained, but demand growth was limited, and the coal tar pitch price is expected to continue consolidating with a generally stable but slightly firm tone in the short term. Overall, cost support for prebaked anodes weakened slightly this week compared to the prior period. Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises continued their production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in regions like Xinjiang and Guangxi came on stream in succession, with new capacity being released continuously; meanwhile, some enterprises saw their operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall, the industry’s supply capability improved steadily and supply flexibility increased further. Demand side, China’s operating aluminum capacity stayed high, forming steady and rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export front, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come on stream, driving a MoM improvement in domestic anode export orders to Southeast Asia; the geopolitical situation in the Middle East eased somewhat with no signs of further deterioration. If the regional situation remains stable, production at affected aluminum enterprises is expected to recover gradually, leading to a recovery in anode procurement demand. Overall, new domestic prebaked anode supply continued to be delivered, high operating aluminum rates effectively supported domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally. The industry’s supply and demand remained generally stable, but as new capacity continued to be released, market competition will stay high. Summary: This week, China’s prebaked anode raw material market trend diverged. Affected by the retreat of the petroleum coke price center, the overall cost of prebaked anodes continued to shift lower. According to SMM monitoring, as of July 2, China’s prebaked anode cost was approximately 5,460.36 yuan/mt, down 1.64% from last Thursday. On the price side, domestic prebaked anode prices edged up in July. A large aluminum smelter in Shandong raised its July prebaked anode tender price by 30 yuan/mt MoM, and a major domestic prebaked anode sales enterprise raised its quote by 13 yuan/mt MoM. Looking ahead, the petroleum coke market will continue to show structural divergence, coal tar pitch prices will hold up well, and overall support from the raw material side will remain relatively firm; regarding supply and demand, China’s high aluminum operating rates will support demand, and export orders improved marginally. However, as new capacity continues to be released, industry competition will stay high. Future focus should be on changes in the supply-demand pattern and price trends of prebaked anodes and upstream raw materials.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to SMM, a major aluminum smelter in Shandong raised its July prebaked anode tender price by 30 yuan/mt MoM. The spot prebaked anode price for July 2026 will be 5,683 yuan/mt, and the acceptance price will be 5,707 yuan/mt.

SMM, June 30 – On June 15, 2026, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) website, the NDRC, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the National Energy Administration, and other departments jointly issued the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries . The notice's requirements for the electrolytic aluminum industry include: promoting large-scale reduction cells of 500 kA and above, and accelerating the upgrade of prebaked anode cells below 300 kA. SMM has compiled publicly available market information. Excluding idled capacity, as of June 2026, cells of 300 kA and below accounted for 16% of total domestic capacity, of which approximately 1.75 million tonnes of capacity already have publicly announced replacement or upgrade projects. It should be noted that the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries does not yet mandate compulsory phase-out provisions regarding cell amperage requirements. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is therefore not expected to be materially affected in the near term. Meanwhile, capacity replacement and upgrade projects across the domestic industry are progressing steadily, with replacement projects surfacing frequently. As of June 30, 2026, a total of 13 electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects had been publicly announced, of which 8 are upgrade and retrofitting projects. As of June 2026, capacity equipped with 500 kA and above cells accounted for 12.9% of the total, a share expected to rise further going forward. Of the 13 publicly announced projects, 11 plan to build 500 kA or 600 kA cells, representing 93.1% of total proposed capacity under replacement projects. SMM Commentary: Electrolytic aluminum output is unlikely to see significant near-term disruption. However, as replacement and upgrade efforts continue, power consumption per tonne of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline further, helping the industry meet its energy conservation and carbon reduction targets.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to SMM, the base selling price for prebaked anodes in July 2026 from a large prebaked anode sales company in China will rise by 13 yuan/mt MoM. The selling prices in each region are: north-west China: 5799 yuan/mt; North China: 5749 yuan/mt; south-west China: 5799 yuan/mt; South China: 5799 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s prebaked anode raw material market saw divergence, with overall costs fluctuating modestly. According to SMM monitoring, as of June 25, the cost of prebaked anode in China was about 5,551.37 yuan/mt, down 0.25% from last Thursday.

Export volumes in May pulled back temporarily due to the procurement pace in Southeast Asia and weaker demand in the Middle East, but the offsetting effect of the new capacity in Southeast Asia cannot be overlooked. The probability of a near-term recovery in the Middle East and Russian markets is low, and exports are likely to remain at low levels. Overall, cumulative exports for the full year are still expected to maintain slight positive growth.