Overall outlook: Through the strategic shift of order focus toward Southeast Asia and Europe, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to effectively mitigate the downside risks from the Middle Eastern market, with the market structure's risk resilience continuing to strengthen. Full-year exports in 2026 are expected to maintain robust growth, and regional diversification is expected to deepen further.

[SMM Aluminum News Brief] According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in April 2026 were 264,600 mt, up 71.73% YoY and up 33.69% MoM. The estimated average export price of prebaked anode in April was approximately $862.52/mt, up 2.24% YoY and up 2.48% MoM. China's cumulative prebaked anode exports in 2026 totaled 854,100 mt, up 15.95% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] In the coal tar pitch market, upstream high-temperature coal tar prices continued to decline, significantly weakening cost support. Deep-processing enterprises maintained high operating rates, leading to persistently loose supply. Combined with downstream prebaked anode and other industries pushing for lower prices on rigid demand and insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, both supply and demand sides lacked upward momentum. In the short term, the coal tar pitch price center is likely to remain under pressure, with the market in the doldrums.

SMM News, May 6: According to SMM data, the average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry in April 2026 rose by 1.5% month-on-month and fell by 0.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a mild increase in prices of raw and auxiliary materials during the period. In April, the supply gap of primary aluminum overseas pushed up LME aluminum prices. However, high domestic inventory put strong downward pressure on aluminum price upside. The monthly average price of SMM A00 spot aluminum (March 26 - April 25) edged up only 1.0% month-on-month. The profit margin of primary aluminum narrowed slightly by RMB 12 per ton to RMB 8,303 per ton, with the average profit surging 125.1% year-on-year. Calculated based on the monthly average price, 100% of the operational primary aluminum capacity in the domestic market remained profitable in April. Breakdown of Cost Components Alumina price dipped intra-month but monthly average climbed month-on-month SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index stood at RMB 2,736 per ton in the statistical period of March 26 to April 25, up 1.9% month-on-month. The overall operational alumina capacity stayed stable during the month, and prices bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by market rumors over the bauxite quota policy in Guinea, bullish market sentiment picked up moderately. Nevertheless, the relatively high price at the start of the month lifted the overall monthly average. Entering May, with newly commissioned capacity ramping up steadily, alumina output is expected to increase. Meanwhile, continuous inflows of imported alumina into the domestic market will further ease spot alumina supply. Given the pending clarification of Guinea’s bauxite policy, supply tightening may trigger a minor price rebound. Alumina raw material costs are expected to remain in a consolidating trend in April. Rising costs drive up prices of auxiliary materials Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices in April. Higher cost levels kept petroleum coke prices on an upward track, underpinning higher prebaked anode prices. Aluminum fluoride prices also moved higher in April amid rising raw material costs. Auxiliary material prices will maintain an upward trend in May, driving a further rise in the auxiliary material cost of primary aluminum and lifting the overall cost center slightly. Power prices stabilize, hydropower costs expected to drop entering wet season Power prices remained generally steady in April. As the market gradually transitions from the normal water period to the wet season starting in May, hydropower tariffs in some regions are projected to edge down, leading to a mild decline in the power cost of primary aluminum production. Overall, the weighted average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry edged higher in April 2026. The primary aluminum cost is expected to keep rising moderately month-on-month in May, with the average level projected at around RMB 16,200 - 16,600 per ton.

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in April 2026 was up 1.5% MoM and down 0.6% YoY, mainly due to slight increases in both raw and auxiliary material prices during the period. Supported by cost factors, auxiliary material prices for prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride are both expected to rise in May, and aluminum cost is expected to continue to edge up.

[SMM Aluminum News Brief] The fundamentals of the prebaked anode raw material market were under short-term pressure, and cost support for prebaked anode prices loosened somewhat but remained relatively firm. Cost support for prebaked anodes was solid during the April cycle, and SMM learned that prebaked anode prices continued their upward trend in May. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand pattern and price trends of prebaked anodes and upstream raw materials.