The iron ore market is currently locked in a supply-heavy, demand-weak stalemate. While fundamental pressure is pushing for lower prices, strong resistance from high-cost producers is creating a floor, suggesting a range-bound, sideways treading market for the week ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors: Supply: Global Market Remains Loose Arrivals Surge: This week, iron ore arrivals on China port reached 29.33 million tons, a notable 6% increase both week-on-week and year-on-year. Global shipments to China are arriving steadily and in significant volumes. Persistent Inventory: Port inventories continue to be a significant drag. SMM data places 35-port stocks at ~148 million tons, while more source reports up to 170 million tons. Despite high volumes, there is little to no progress on destocking. Demand: Downstream Weakening, Mills Squeezed External Competition: Downstream steel demand continues to soften. The China domestic market is facing further pressure from low-priced steel billet imports from Indonesia, which are grabbing market share. Profit Squeeze: Steel mills are caught in a vise. Upstream, coal and coke prices remain strong and resilient, while downstream demand is absent, continuously eroding steelmaking profits. Production Cuts Expected: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic regarding near-term demand. We anticipate both steel mill purchase intent and molten iron production to move lower in tandem. Spot traders report extreme difficulty in securing profitable transactions. News & Negotiations: Stalled Talks & Tangled Factors The coal and coke sectors continue to trended upward sentiment from breaking news, supporting strong price expectations. Meanwhile, the outcomes of the recent closed-door meeting between major steel mills and traders are split between two major market narratives. Price Floor: Resistance from High-Cost Producers Crucially, the current iron ore price has corrected to a very sensitive level—effectively the cost line for many high-cost mines and a significant psychological support point for traders. Both groups are now actively resisting any further price declines.

News Release, June 18, 2026: The chrome market maintained a downward trend this week, with ample supply and sluggish demand across the board. Market confidence remains weak, and most participants hold bearish expectations.

As we near the midpoint of the year, zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have repeatedly tumbled to historic lows. As of June 5, the average TC for domestic zinc concentrate fell to 50 yuan per metric ton of metal content, while the TC for imported zinc concentrate dropped to -70.75 US dollars per dry metric ton.

According to China Customs data, China’s total chromite ore imports stood at 2.3278 million tons in April 2026, down 4.6% month-on-month while rising 53.65% year-on-year.

After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

Given the high reliance of the Copperbelt’s mineral processing and logistics on critical consumables supplied via the Middle East, SMM conducted a 17-day field investigation across the Copperbelt to assess the short-term stability of the copper supply chain and the impact of regional infrastructure bottlenecks, engaging with 25 stakeholders in Zambia and DRC and covering the entire value chain, ranging from mining, smelting, refining to downstream logistics and infrastructure investment.