[SMM Analysis: Review of the Manganese Ore Market in 2024 and Outlook for 2025] I. Price: In 2024, the annual average price of 46% Australian lump at Tianjin Port was 47.66 yuan/mtu, up 16.02% YoY; the annual average price of 45.5% Gabonese lump at Tianjin Port was 45.72 yuan/mtu, up 17.77% YoY; and the annual average price of 37.5% South African semi-carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 37.31 yuan/mtu, up 15.87% YoY. From the quarterly price review: 2024 Q1: Supply side, manganese ore port arrivals decreased MoM, but combined with previous manganese ore inventory, supply remained sufficient. Demand side, alloy plants mainly made just-in-time procurement, and port inventory destocking accelerated. Overall, despite just-in-time procurement by alloy plants, the supply surplus of manganese ore pressured price increases, leading to manganese ore prices fluctuating downward. 2024 Q2: Influenced by news of disruptions in mine shipments, overseas miners showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Supply side, manganese ore port arrivals continued to decline, and miners were reluctant to sell, resulting in tight market circulation. Demand side, alloy plants with manganese ore inventory showed strong willingness to resume production, and manganese alloy production increased, boosting procurement enthusiasm for manganese ore and significantly driving up spot prices.

This week, chrome ore inventory at national ports significantly declined, down 398,000 mt WoW. The inventory at main ports nationwide is approaching the 2 million mt mark, reaching 2.1337 million mt, a yearly low. Among them, Tianjin Port's inventory decreased by 353,000 mt WoW, dropping to 1.5937 million mt, with the inventory-to-sales ratio reduced to 1.15……

The cyclone in Australia impacted manganese ore exports, leading to a significant short-term supply crunch.

Regarding domestic mines, according to an SMM survey, as temperatures gradually rise, some regions in China that had previously reduced or halted zinc concentrate production are gradually resuming operations. From January to April, the domestic zinc concentrate operating rate and monthly output increased month by month.

In early March, no stronger-than-expected policy from the Two Sessions made market sentiment bearish.

PB fines spot prices are now around 990 yuan/mt at Qingdao port.