[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Market Expectations Pessimistic, Transactions Continue Weak] June 16, 2026 – Ferrochrome and chrome ore markets fluctuate slightly...

This week, hot-rolled coil inventories at Zhangjiagang Port were 271,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW (a decrease of 0.73%), and up 11.07% YoY.

Philippine Market: Port inventories continued to accumulate, high freight costs coupled with smelters pushing for lower prices, ore prices faced increasing downside risks This week, CIF China quotes for Philippine nickel ore were generally flat WoW, with no significant loosening or increases across various grades. Specific quotes were: CIF China: Ni 1.3% at $49–52/wmt, 1.4% at $57–60/wmt, 1.5% at $65–67/wmt; CIF Indonesia: 1.3% at approximately $48–50/wmt, 1.4% at approximately $56–58/wmt. Supply and Weather As of June 12, Philippine nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports totaled approximately 5.77 million wmt, equivalent to around 45,300 mt in nickel metal content, up WoW as supply remained ample. Weather conditions at mining areas were relatively manageable, with no major typhoons or heavy rainfall disrupting supply chains recently. However, spot freight rates stayed high, providing minimal support for miners' FOB prices, intensifying cost pressure on miners' shipments. Some mines opted to hold off on shipments, awaiting next week's new round of bidding results before making decisions. Demand and Inventory Demand side, smelters' desire to bargain down prices remained strong, continuing to pressure miners with ample inventories, while the buyer-dominant landscape persisted. Smelters in both China and Indonesia held inventories that fluctuated at highs, with weak short-term restocking willingness and sluggish trading in the market. Considering the continued accumulation of port inventories, high freight costs squeezing miner margins, coordinated price pushing by smelters, and rising wait-and-see sentiment among miners, ore prices could edge down further in the coming weeks. Indonesian Market: Smelters' High Inventories Continued to Weigh on Prices, Premiums Showed a Narrowing Trend The HMA was unchanged at $18,799.29/mt. Theoretical HPM prices were: Ni 1.6% at approximately $70.75/wmt, 1.2% at approximately $49.84/wmt. The delivery-to-factory price for 1.6% ore was $73.8–78.8/wmt, with premiums at +3 to +8 dollars, flat WoW and significantly narrower than earlier highs. Looking ahead, with ore supply continuing to be ample and smelters' willingness to bargain down prices increasing, premiums are expected to have room to decline further. Indonesia's local ore supply was relatively abundant, with some mines taking advantage of weather windows to maximize production. According to BMKG: Sulawesi (Morowali Utara) experienced relatively dry weather with calm seas and smooth shipping; East Halmahera saw persistent rainfall with wave heights of 1.4–2.0 m; Obi had light rain with wave heights of 1.3–1.6 m, with shipment efficiency affected in both areas. This week, the saprolite ore market saw ample cargo availability and relatively active trading volumes. However, with inventories at many smelters staying at sufficient levels, the desire to push for lower prices strengthened noticeably. In some industrial parks, unloading vehicle queues appeared this week, directly reflecting the market reality of loose ore supply and persistently high delivery-to-factory volumes. Traded grades were concentrated at 1.45–1.50% Ni, while high-grade ore (≥1.6%) remained scarce. In addition, spot limonite ore was priced at approximately $26–34/wmt, with the price range widening. The market exhibited some divergence, with select transactions at lower prices and a few at higher levels, as the overall center shifted slightly lower WoW, mainly dragged down by high freight costs. The discount to the theoretical HPM price remained deep and detached. Sulphuric acid supply stayed relatively tight, HPAL operating rates were low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore remained under pressure. Policy Developments Newly approved RKAB for nickel ore were relatively rare this week, with the market widely expecting more approvals to be released in July. Meanwhile, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government would implement an "orderly and flexible" policy for 2026 mineral and coal RKAB, where production quota adjustments would be linked to global commodity price trends and domestic industrial demand—moderately expanding production when prices rise and tightening promptly when prices are under pressure to maintain supply-demand balance. This statement reserved policy space for within-year quota revisions, warranting ongoing market attention to the release periods of subsequent official documents. The DSI takeover mechanism for ferroalloy exports entered a transition period on June 1, with NPI (HS 7202.60.00) highly likely to be included; Harita’s PT Trimegah had already completed the first DSI single-window export declaration, with smooth operations. The government was simultaneously pushing forward a strict crackdown on under-invoiced contracts, with relevant departments set to consult with industry associations to close loopholes.

June 12: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore: 31.4-32.1 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore: 37.8-38.3 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; Gabonese ore: 41-41.6 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore: 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore: 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; Gabonese ore: 41.5-42 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore: 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday. The manganese ore market is steady but stagnant, end-use demand is sluggish, and a wait-and-see sentiment prevails.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Off-Season Demand Combined with Macro Turbulence: Prices and Costs Pulled Back in Tandem, Narrowing Steel Mill Profits This week, stainless steel prices and production costs pulled back in tandem, slightly narrowing steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled coil as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs was 2.23%, while the profit margin based on inventory raw material costs was 1.31%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued to pull back this week. Dragged down by the decline in SHFE nickel prices during the week, coupled with the heightened cost advantage of stainless steel scrap, expected production schedules at stainless steel mills dropped, reinforcing a strong desire to bargain down prices. High-priced transactions encountered resistance, keeping high-grade NPI prices in the doldrums. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 0.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,144 yuan per nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices remained largely stable this week. The pullback in high-grade NPI prices caused the raw material side to weaken, making it difficult to drive prices upward. However, a rebound in stainless steel futures and limited declines in finished product spot prices provided a counterbalancing force that supported prices. The industry has now entered the off-season for consumption, with steel mill production schedules and profits both sliding. Combined with rising uncertainty in the macro environment, bearish risks are gradually accumulating, and prices are expected to face downward pressure going forward. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai region gained 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,450 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices edged down this week. Chrome ore port inventories remained at historically high levels, and prices gradually pulled back, weakening the cost support for high-carbon ferrochrome. Additionally, ferrochrome producers still had profit margins at present, and production declines……

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Overseas Market Offers Lowered, Market Transactions Limited] June 10, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets experienced slight fluctuations...