Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

【SMM Steel】On April 15, iron ore futures prices remained stable. Port spot cargoes' morning quotations were steady compared to yesterday's prices. In Shandong ports, PB fines were around 765 yuan/mt, super special fines at 625 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines at 860 yuan/mt, and PB lumps at 900 yuan/mt. In the two main ports of Hebei, PB fines were around 775 yuan/mt, super special fines at 630 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines at 860 yuan/mt, and Newman screened lumps at 895 yuan/mt. (Pricing unit: yuan/wmt). For more details, please visit the SMM official website for free at https://steel.smm.cn/steel/090.

【Will Rio Tinto's Main Product PB Face a Grade Reduction?】Recent market rumors indicate that the quality of Rio Tinto's flagship product PB (including PB fines and PB lumps) has declined by at least one grade. Specifically, the iron grade of PB fines has dropped from the typical value of 61.6% to 60.8%, and the iron grade of PB lumps has also decreased from the typical value of 62.2% to 61.6%. According to the online rumors, the iron grades of PB fines and lumps will be implemented in H2 2025. Based on the quality changes, there are also market rumors about the pricing model for the "new PB mixed ore product," which is said to be set as "Platts 62% index + discount." Additionally, Rio Tinto's mine will conduct price discovery monthly by selling spot cargo in US dollars and determine the discount. It is rumored that the adjusted PB products will almost certainly be priced at a reduced rate.

【SMM Steel】On April 10, iron ore futures prices rebounded sharply by 3.06%. The port spot cargoes' morning offer increased by 5 yuan/mt. In Shandong Port, PB fines were around 760 yuan/mt, super special fines at 625 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines at 855 yuan/mt, and PB lumps at 895 yuan/mt. The price spread between Tangshan Port and Shandong Port remained at 10 yuan/mt (unit: yuan/wmt). For more details, please visit the SMM official website for free at https://steel.smm.cn/content/090/103270174.

[SMM Iron Ore Price Transaction Summary] On March 19, prices decreased by 10-15 yuan compared to the previous trading day; at Shandong's main ports, PB fines were 761 yuan, super special fines were 635 yuan, and PB lumps were 890 yuan; at Hebei's main ports, PB fines were 770 yuan, and Mac fines were 740 yuan (pricing unit: yuan/wmt).