Overseas rare earth markets diverged this week between light and heavy types. Driven by the uptrend in China, terbium oxide and terbium metal prices rose, while light rare earths remained stable. Trading-wise, heavy rare earths saw few transactions due to export controls. On the industrial front, U.S. companies accelerated domestic recycling and purification, while European and Japanese firms advanced R&D on magnetic material recycling and rare-earth-free alternative technologies. Meanwhile, Indo-Pacific and South Korean players actively restructured supply chains, and resource development and processing projects were intensively launched in locations such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Brazil. The global “de-risking” layout for rare earths continued to deepen.

SMM, June 30: Although market procurement demand remained mediocre, spot prices for Pr-Nd oxide recorded a second consecutive increase, supported by fluctuations in futures, difficulty in finding low-priced cargo in the market, some large manufacturers entering procurement, and a MoM decline of about 6% in Pr-Nd oxide production in June. On the demand side, long-term demand expansion expectations in the new energy industry chain such as robotics, along with the upcoming Q3 downstream concentrated procurement season in China and rising market expectations for subsequent demand recovery, bolstered the rare earth permanent magnet concept to strengthen on June 30, with the concept rising 2.79% by the close on June 30. In terms of individual stocks: Dongfang Zirconium Industry, Sinomine Resource Group, and Zhong Ke San Huan hit the daily limit up, while Hanghua Co., Ltd., Longhua Co., Ltd., Zhongxi Nonferrous, Sinosteel NMC, and Ningbo Yunsheng led the gains. Pr-Nd Oxide Spot Prices See Second Consecutive Increase; June Production Declines MoM In the spot market, on June 30, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended its upward trend from the previous trading day, rising another 0.68%. Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remain stable. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices drove a simultaneous rise in supplier spot offers, making low-priced oxides hard to find in the market. However, metal enterprises were cautious in procurement due to unsatisfactory inquiries for metals, leading to generally moderate market trading activity. In the metal market, inquiry activity picked up slightly on the afternoon of the 30th, mainly driven by tender procurement from major magnetic material manufacturers, but most magnetic material enterprises remained on the sidelines, resulting in overall poor transactions. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices may move sideways without significant improvement in downstream demand. On the supply side, further providing price support logic: in terms of production, according to SMM's latest survey, overall rare earth oxide production declined MoM in June, with Pr-Nd oxide seeing the most prominent decrease, shrinking approximately 6% MoM. Institutional Views SDIC Securities emphasized that heavy rare earths are accelerating inventory depletion due to a cliff-like decline in imports from Japan, opening a window for domestic substitution, with prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide rebounding strongly. Materials such as AI high-capacity MLCCs, high-end ceramic substrates, and dental zirconia all require the addition of heavy rare earths. Growing demand combined with hard supply constraints is driving the price centers of both light and heavy rare earths upward together. Meanwhile, inflation trends in AI upstream materials such as MLCC dielectric powder, Low CTE electronic fabrics, M9 copper foil, and tantalum metals are clear, and the medium and long-term outlook is positive for the allocation value of strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, copper, tin, molybdenum, antimony, germanium, gallium, tantalum, niobium, uranium, rhenium, and lithium. A research report from China Securities stated that domestic dental zirconia enterprises have confirmed "receipt of a notice from Japan's Tosoh Corporation regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply," marking a shift in raw material shortages from expectations to reality following overseas rare earth supply restrictions. Yttria-stabilized nano zirconia (YSZ) is a high-performance ceramic material with yttrium oxide added as an additive. Due to restricted rare earth supply outside China, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets has reached hundreds of times at its peak. The domestic price spread for yttrium oxide between Chinese and overseas markets is huge. Rare earths are indispensable additives for high-end materials and high-end manufacturing. As overseas rare earth supply tightens and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens, domestic high-end materials containing rare earths are expected to gain a larger share of the global market, benefiting the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the rare earth industry chain. Recommended reading:

This week, the overseas rare earth market remained stable overall. Quotes for cerium oxide, lanthanum oxide, Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium and terbium oxides, and corresponding metals on FOB/CIF terms were largely steady. The mild adjustments in China’s domestic prices had not yet been transmitted outside China, with sluggish trading and continued shrinkage in deliveries. On the project front, the focus was on building non-China supply chains in the West: Australia’s Iluka Eneabba refinery secured a A$1.65 billion federal non-recourse loan and signed a four-year, 1,200 mt magnetic material rare earth offtake agreement with an unnamed global automaker; US-based Energy Fuels planned to acquire German magnetic material producer VAC for $1.9 billion, complemented by a combined $1.45 billion dual-line loan from the US Strategic Capital Office and the Department of Defense to expand capacity at its White Mesa facility; Canada’s Ucore shipped NdPr oxide samples with 99.5% purity for downstream qualification; in South America, Aclara received environmental approval for its Penco project in Chile; local processing projects in Nigeria and South Africa also advanced simultaneously.

This week, the overseas rare earth market was broadly influenced by supply tightening in China, with Pr-Nd and heavy rare earth prices generally rising. On the industry front, Europe and the US accelerated supply chain independence: the Norwegian government took over the development of the Fen deposit, the US acquired Brazil's Serra Verde, and Estonia's Silmet plant commenced production of heavy rare earth separation. In addition, UK magnet recycling and Brazil-Germany cooperation both made substantive progress, as the global ex-China supply chain buildout continued to accelerate.

[SMM Overseas Rare Earths Update] Driven by rising prices in China and future expectations, mainstream rare earth prices outside China edged up this week. Praseodymium oxide FOB closed at $126-130/kg, neodymium oxide FOB closed at $157-189/kg, up $2/kg WoW, praseodymium metal FOB closed at $171-179/kg, up $5/kg WoW, and neodymium metal FOB closed at $159-179/kg, up $6/kg WoW.

This week coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday, with most rare earth producers temporarily suspending external shipments and maintaining pre-holiday price levels. On the trading side, overseas inquiries increased in frequency, while domestic enterprises selectively took orders. Some companies, facing a shortage of spot resources, halted external shipments. In news, the opening of India's artificial intelligence summit became the hottest topic this week, with multiple countries announcing plans to strengthen rare earth mining to secure local supply chains.