SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Rebar export FOB offers remained stable today. Market traders reported that inquiries were relatively mediocre and transactions remained weak, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market participants. [Steel Billet] Billet export offers were in the doldrums today, quoted at 473-476 USD/tonne. Market feedback indicated that current trader offers were on the high side, while overseas billet export offers declined, weakening China's competitiveness and resulting in mediocre inquiries and poor transaction performance. [HRC] Sheet & plate export prices dropped1-2 USD/tonne day on day today, with HRC transaction prices at 496-50 USD/tonne. Market feedback showed that inspection rates at North China ports had increased recently, causing some unofficial quoted sources to shift to relatively less stringent ports for port departures, and corresponding price spreads narrowed. Regarding the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, some export participants consulted today reported no notable increase in inquiries yet, and buyers may also be waiting to see subsequent risks.ently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] A 0.40 INR/kWh industrial power tariff increase in Chhattisgarh, effective 1 Jul 2026, will raise induction furnace billet costs by ~3.17–3.80 USD/tonne and re-rolling (rebar/wire rod) costs by ~0.51–0.63 USD/tonne. Weak monsoon-season demand limits cost pass-through, with billet margins at risk of erosion by 2.64–3.69 USD/tonne. [SEA] Currently, construction project operating rates in Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are at a seasonal low, severely suppressing rigid demand for long steel products such as rebar and wire rod. End-user buying sentiment is weak, the pace of overall inventory destocking is slow, and local major mills' rebar EXW prices are at 520–535 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, with the release of information on US-Iran negotiations, news of the Strait of Hormuz unblocking has sparked expectations among Southeast Asian buyers of lower freight rates, creating a mindset of buying on dips and waiting on the sidelines. However, according to SMM's latest survey, even if the agreement can be signed smoothly on the 19th, the actual unblocking of the strait will still require a buffer period. Freight rates are expected to be difficult to lower in the short term and will mainly fluctuate at high levels. [Taiwan, China] This week, Feng Hsin, a leading long steel producer in Taiwan, kept its long steel prices stable, halting a three-week downward streak. Specifically, the rebar price stabilized at 583 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 18400 TWD/tonne), while the structural steel price held steady at 792 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 25000 TWD/tonne). This price stability indicates that mills are ready to accept new orders as the market gradually bottoms out.

According to the SMM survey, as of June 16, the operating rate of the 50 EAF steel mills nationwide that mainly produce construction steel stood at 41.7%, up 0.86% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 43.07%, up 0.74% WoW; and daily average construction steel production was 95,900 mt, up 1,700 mt WoW.

While upstream MHP payables stayed high, auxiliary material prices such as sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to climb, and downstream ternary production schedules remained at high levels, the performance of battery-grade nickel sulphate prices was not optimistic. SMM believes this was driven by multiple factors, including weakening cost support, front-loaded downstream stockpiling, increased import supplementation, and higher volumes of nickel sulphate converted from refined nickel.

According to SMM, in May, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.55%, down 3.64 percentage points MoM, up 0.13 percentage points from expectations, and down 2.65 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.48%, medium-sized enterprises was 49.95%, and small enterprises was 64.5%. In May, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.55%, down 3.64 ppts MoM and down 2.65 ppts YoY (70.26% in May last year). Overall, the performance of the copper cathode rod market in May was similar to that in April. As rising copper prices suppressed purchase willingness among downstream processing enterprises, a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in the market, new orders at copper cathode rod enterprises continued to weaken, and order growth was significantly insufficient. Affected by low purchase willingness among downstream clients and a slowdown in the pace of cargo pick-up, finished product inventories at copper cathode rod enterprises continued to build up. Sluggish new orders, coupled with elevated finished product inventories, weighed on production, causing the overall operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to pull back significantly in May. By downstream sector, due to the rebound in copper prices, operating rates of wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises also slipped to varying degrees. In May, days of raw material inventories at copper cathode rod enterprises were 2.06 days, and days of finished product inventories were 3.58 days. After copper prices rebounded, copper cathode rod enterprises turned more cautious in procurement, only purchasing as needed. When copper prices corrected, they restocked as needed, driving days of raw material inventories up by 0.21 days MoM. Meanwhile, orders from downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises showed mediocre performance, with demand continuing to weaken. The speed of picking up goods slowed down compared with the earlier period, pushing days of finished product inventories up by 0.23 days MoM. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in June is expected to be 66.59%. Looking forward to June, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to decline by 0.96 percentage points MoM to 66.59%, and down 3.56 percentage points YoY. Although orders on hand can provide short-term support for production and stage-wise support for operating rates, as the market gradually enters the off-season, end-user demand for cables, enamelled wire and other sectors weakens, coupled with concerns over copper price fluctuations, it was originally expected that the operating rate would continue to trend weak. However, recent market conditions have changed. This week, a sharp pullback in copper prices stimulated concentrated price-based procurement by downstream buyers, leading to a significant increase in new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises, far exceeding earlier expectations. With marginal improvement on the demand side, the industry’s June operating rate has the potential to be revised upward and break through the previously pessimistic forecast.

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

Affected by the traditional consumption off-season and raw material price transmission, China’s deep-processed manganese products came under overall downward pressure this week. Products showed differentiated market performances due to distinct supply-demand fundamentals, with obvious linkage across the industrial chain.