SMM July 28 News: Metal Markets: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.26%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 0.76%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.11%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.25%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.13%, rebar fell 0.62%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.46%, and stainless steel fell 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.36%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.65%. As for base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.56%, LME aluminum fell 0.39%, LME zinc fell 0.36%, LME tin fell 1.57%, and LME nickel fell 0.26%. LME lead rose 0.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.68% and COMEX silver fell 1.96%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.59%. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain sluggish in Q3 despite the fact that historically Q3 is a seasonal stockpiling peak. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which curb fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed. Many risks remain in the short term that could cause gold prices to decline again, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. (Jinshi Data APP) Also, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.12%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.08%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.35% to 2,760 points. As of 11:41 on July 28, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed on oil prices, while rate-hike concerns eased, but the market remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision, with silver prices retreating after rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity... Macro Front Domestic: [Hangzhou: Plan to moderately deploy new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks ahead of demand] The “Hangzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Promotion Regulation (Draft)” is open for public comment. It proposes that the municipal people’s government should make overall plans for the construction of an artificial intelligence infrastructure system, appropriately lay out new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, new-generation communication networks, and trusted data spaces in advance, establish and improve market-oriented operational mechanisms, and ensure efficient utilization, safety, and controllability of all types of facilities; the municipal people’s government should coordinate the layout of intelligent computing power facilities and energy resource allocation. Build a new-type energy system for a megacity, strengthen synergy among power supply, power grid, load, and energy storage, promote urban power supply reliability to meet the usage standards of intelligent computing power facilities, and ensure safe, stable, and sufficient electricity supply for computing power; support the construction and operation of a city computing power resource dispatch service platform through market-based mechanisms, providing the public with convenient services such as computing power resource information release, supply-demand matching, and transaction settlement. Encourage various computing power resources to access the platform to achieve efficient allocation of computing power resources. Support computing power operation enterprises in participating in the construction of the national integrated computing power network. The PBOC conducted 305.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.46. US President Trump said on Monday, when discussing Fed issues, that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he must deal with committee issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and that the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10 Data APP) “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Fed Chairman Warsh had to convince the most rate-cut-enthusiastic president in modern history to appoint him to the Fed chairmanship. Now he faces a new challenge: persuading his 18 colleagues to abandon the professional mindset that he believes led them astray. The first test will come on Wednesday. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Frank Fret, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote in a report that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh’s repeated pledge to restore price stability and signal that policymakers no longer rely on telegraphing every policy move in advance. “The market may again have underestimated the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate increase this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while highlighting the Fed’s independence. ((Jin10 Data APP) HSBC economist Paul Mackel said in a report that unless the US Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the US dollar. Fed Chairman Warsh has acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He said if the meeting this week merely aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to surge significantly because the market is already positioned for rate hikes later this year. “However, we also recognize some are entertaining the idea of a surprise Fed hike, akin to what it did suddenly in February 1994.” He said that if the market welcomes it as a prudential move, this would boost the dollar.(Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup traders are betting the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term interest rate trading, the position they hold will profit if the Fed holds rates steady. Singal said, “We still stick to our expectation that rates will remain unchanged.” He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data indicate that the Fed does not need to raise rates at this time.(Jin10 Data APP) Lloyd Chan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, noted in a research report that the US dollar may be supported in the near term by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent tensions in the Middle East. He also said the Fed decision this week is likely to be a key catalyst for markets. Chan pointed out: “Though no policy change is expected, the market’s focus will be firmly locked on the Fed’s guidance – namely, whether policymakers still lean towards tightening.” The analyst added: “US tariff issues are returning to the spotlight as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff regime after the US Supreme Court overturned Donald Trump’s proposed global reciprocal tariff measures earlier this year.”(Jin10 Data APP) Regarding other currencies: RBA Governor Bullock: It is still uncertain whether the RBA’s rate hikes have been sufficient to bring CPI back to the target range. The RBA Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. The full effects of past rate hikes will take time to manifest. The RBA is committed to preventing cost pressures from becoming entrenched inflation. Core CPI is largely tracking in line with expectations but remains too high. Indicators suggest a mild pace of consumption growth in Q2. A further slowdown in demand growth may be necessary.(from Wall Street CN APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of the US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11, the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) YoY for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, among others. Additionally, watch out for: RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.46% and Brent down 1.37%. Geopolitically, the situation showed a phased easing. Trump stated on Monday that the US is in diplomatic negotiations with Iran to end the conflict, while warning that if talks fail, military engagement will resume. According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Oman are attempting to reach an agreement to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended their decline on this news. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Platinum prices consolidated on a subdued note today. On the geopolitical front, the US suspended airstrikes on Iran, and Iran subsequently stated it had not withdrawn from negotiations and was willing to continue talks with the US, easing Middle East tensions somewhat. Oil prices pulled back from highs, and market trading remained a tug-of-war between risk-off sentiment fueled by geopolitical events and expectations of inflation and interest rate hikes driven by elevated oil prices. In the morning session, the most-traded platinum futures contract on GFEX, PT2610, settled at 398.85 yuan/g, down 1.12%. The inverted spread between the best ask price for 9995 platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2610 contract hovered near 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum were at a discount of 3 yuan/g to 2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, or at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. As futures declined during the day, premiums in mainstream quotations edged up from the previous trading day. Suppliers’ warrant offers were mostly at a slight premium against the GFEX August contract, with spot trades skewed near parity against the same contract. Some traders, tracking the price spread between futures contracts, sought to take on warrants, while downstream buyers made small purchases in line with orders. Overall, spot platinum market consumption was normal today.

SMM, July 28: In H1 2026, the global petroleum coke market had originally hoped for an easing of the previous year's tight supply and a gradual recovery in production from major producing regions. However, the early-year "signs of production increase" were successively interrupted by peak maintenance season, the escalation of Middle East tensions, and multiple refinery accidents. The global supply side displayed a typical pattern of "first increase then decline, overall tightness," while the structural divergence between high- and low-sulphur coke further intensified. I. Global Overview: From "Easing Expectations" to "Tightening Reality" In 2025, the global petroleum coke market tightened significantly due to concentrated refinery closures and a rising share of light crude processing — US coke production once fell to a 20-year low. Entering 2026, benefiting from improved economics for heavy sour crude, coke output in the US Gulf Coast surged to a 13-month high in January, and the market widely expected high-sulphur coke supply to exert downward pressure on prices in Q2. But this expectation was quickly overturned. The escalation of Middle East tensions in late February pushed up crude oil and shipping costs, and combined with successive accidents at key refineries in the US and Mexico from March to April, global supply tightened again, providing solid support to prices. The repeated cycle of "production increase — then production cuts" in global petroleum coke during H1 has become the dominant theme driving price fluctuations. II. US: Hit New High Early in the Year, Production Rebounded Despite March-April Disruptions The US is a major source of global high-sulphur coke. In January 2026, benefiting from favorable economics for processing heavy sour crude, US coke production rebounded to a 13-month high, momentarily making the market optimistic about supply easing in Q2. However, March-April saw a cluster of risk events: Valero's Port Arthur refinery (380,000 b/d) halted production due to a fire on March 23, with coking units partially restarting in early April but the large crude unit not back online until month-end, forcing April shipments to be delayed to May. Meanwhile, multiple refineries in Texas also experienced frequent malfunctions — ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery (612,000 b/d) suffered a unit malfunction on April 22, and Marathon's Galveston Bay refinery (631,000 b/d) experienced a power outage on April 14. However, the disruption did not reverse the overall production increase. According to US EIA data, marketable petroleum coke production along the US Gulf Coast reached 2 million mt in April, up 14% YoY (up from 1.8 million mt a year earlier) and up 3% MoM, pushing nationwide production up 8% YoY. The growth was mainly driven by a surge in Venezuelan crude imports (more than doubled YoY and up 15% MoM in April), coupled with US Gulf Coast refining margins hitting a more than three-year high in late March and refinery operating rates averaging 95%; some refiners maximized operations to capture high product margins. Among them, Louisiana Gulf Coast production soared 29% YoY in April, hitting a more than six-year high. In other words, US supply in H1 was characterized by a "first-down-then-up" pattern—constrained by incidents in Q1, but clearly recovering by April. III. Mexico and Venezuela: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back on the Production Increase Path Venezuela: After the US eased sanctions restrictions, exports began to rebound from February but remained below year-earlier levels, contributing limited global growth. Mexico: Following the incident at the Pemex Dos Bocas / Olmeca refinery (340,000 b/d) on April 9, which involved a coke pit fire and damage to a tower at the coker unit, market participants expect it to resume operations at 50% load. This followed a separate fatal fire at the refinery in mid-March that resulted in five deaths. The successive incidents have cast a shadow over Mexico's full-year production increase plan. However, entering H2, coke output at Dos Bocas has continued to rebound, with daily production recovering to 4,000–5,000 mt. Stable shipments to India and Asia have started since July, slightly relieving pressure on US Gulf Coast cargoes, but the growth remains limited and insufficient to alter the tight balance landscape. Overall, the "recovery-driven production increases" in both countries were offset by incidents and infrastructure bottlenecks, resulting in H1 net global supply growth that was clearly below expectations. IV. Middle East: Core Refineries Hit, Saudi High- and Low-Sulphur Petroleum Coke Exports Hindered After the Middle East situation escalated on February 28, constrained regional crude exports pushed up oil prices and narrowed the heavy-light crude spread, directly weakening the economics of coker operations. The impact on petroleum coke supply has been particularly direct: Yasref refinery (Aramco/Sinopec, 400,000 b/d, Yanbu) has lowered coke production; Satorp refinery (Aramco/TotalEnergies, 460,000 b/d, Jubail) has faced shipment disruptions, with one processing unit damaged in a night attack on April 7–8, further tightening Saudi external supply. Saudi Arabia is the primary supplier of high-sulphur petroleum coke globally, especially to India and China. Disruptions to its production and shipments have directly intensified the tightness of spot high-sulphur petroleum coke in the Asian market. Notably, the supply disruption did not ease with the end of Q2—after the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement broke down on July 8, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was again obstructed, and all cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Satorp and Yanbu refineries were delayed, extending the supply interruption into early H2. 5. Russia: Exports to China Surge Against the Trend, Refinery Attacks Add Further Uncertainty Russia is one of the core sources of China’s petroleum coke imports. In H1, amid multiple disruptions, it exhibited a trajectory of “volume increase, attacks, and renewed tightening”: Import share rose against the trend: According to General Administration of Customs data, China’s total petroleum coke imports in H1 2026 reached 8.1103 million mt (YoY -2.24%), of which Russian petroleum coke imports amounted to 1.4361 million mt, a significant YoY increase of 221,000 mt, or 18.18%, lifting its import share to 18% and making it one of the few sources to grow against the trend in H1. Predominantly high-sulphur resources with diversified transport: Currently, Russian petroleum coke specifications remain largely high-sulphur resources. In addition to traditional sea transport, some traders choose to deliver via rail into China, mainly for use in prebaked anode and anode auxiliary material applications. Refinery attacks hit supply: Recently, the Russia-Ukraine situation has continued to deteriorate, damaging delayed coking units (CDU and secondary processing units) at core refineries such as Omsk. Russia’s overall refining capacity was paralyzed by over 40% at one point, with the affected products mainly being medium-sulphur petroleum coke with 1.8% sulphur and general-grade petroleum coke around 4% sulphur. According to market surveys, the Omsk refinery is expected to gradually resume production by end-July, while the Tatarstan refinery will resume in early September, leading to near-term supply tightening expectations. Overall, Russian petroleum coke supported China’s high-sulphur petroleum coke supply in H1 by “filling the gap with volume,” but the pace of refinery production resumptions and geopolitical risks in H2 will be key variables affecting the stability of exports to China. 6. China: Independent Refinery Output High Initially, Then Low; June Operating Rate Plummets to 42.69%As the world's largest petroleum coke consumer, China's domestic coke production also came under pressure in H1. According to SMM's monthly data on independent refineries: Total H1 volume: From January to June 2026, cumulative petroleum coke production at independent refineries was approximately 4.7831 million mt, down 148,100 mt from 4.9312 million mt in the same period of 2025, a 3.0% YoY decline. Monthly trend shaped higher at the start and lower later: January output of 867,300 mt (operating rate 66.24%) was the H1 high; it then declined month by month, with June output falling to 656,200 mt and the operating rate at only 42.69%. Compared to June 2025's 761,500 mt and 60.67%, the declines were 13.80% and 17.98 percentage points, respectively. Significant regional divergence: Shandong independent refineries produced about 3.5543 million mt in H1, up 8.2% YoY; non-Shandong independent refineries produced about 1.2291 million mt, a sharp 25.3% YoY decline. Shandong's share of total independent refinery production rose to around 74.3%. Structural highlights: Low-sulphur coke was relatively strong, supported by rigid demand from anode materials and prebaked anodes, while high-sulphur coke saw limited price gains due to downstream resistance to high prices but still moved its overall center higher. The structural tightness in high-quality low-sulphur resources during H1 is likely to remain the main theme throughout the whole year. 7. China Port Spot: Low-sulphur Coke Stays High and Firm, High-sulphur Coke Diverges Tightening supply has been reflected in domestic port spot prices. According to SMM's China port petroleum coke spot price monitoring, low-sulphur and high-sulphur coke prices showed clear divergence in H1: Low-sulphur coke stayed high with marginal supplement from imports: Represented by Brazilian and Argentine low-sulphur coke, imports of high-quality resources saw significant YoY growth in port arrivals during H1, and port spot prices long operated in the range of 4,100–4,500 yuan/mt. Indonesian low-sulphur coke port spot prices drifted higher from around 4,450 yuan/mt in January, touched a high of 4,900 yuan/mt at the end of April, and then pulled back to 4,600 yuan/mt by late July. Overall, low-sulphur coke demand is rigid (anode materials, high-end prebaked anodes) while incremental supply is insufficient, with imports providing only marginal supplementation, and the supply-demand mismatch supports the price center. Divergence within high-sulphur petroleum coke: US high-sulphur petcoke prices remain relatively firm, staying above 3,000 yuan/mt, while prices for high-sulphur petcoke from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other sources are notably lower, with some grades trading only in the 1,400–2,000 yuan/mt range. The price spread reflects differences in cargo quality, shipping costs, and port arrival stability: cargoes from the US Gulf Coast are supported by rebounding EIA production and aggressive Indian buying, whereas Saudi high-sulphur petcoke is under pressure due to shipment disruptions from the Satorp and Yanbu refineries, leading to unstable port arrivals and depressed prices. Consolidating at recent highs: Since July, port spot prices have shown a pattern of mixed performance and consolidation at highs. Low-sulphur petcoke has softened slightly in the off-season demand period, but declines have been limited; high-sulphur petcoke prices have diverged due to different shipment paces from the US Gulf and the Middle East. Overall, the cost side (import average price up 37.88% YoY) provides solid support for domestic prices, leaving relatively small downside room. This price structure indicates that the global supply tightness in H1 was not simply an "overall shortage," but rather the result of structural tightness in low-sulphur resources combined with regional mismatches in high-sulphur resources. VIII. H2 Outlook Looking ahead to H2, whether global supply can truly shift from decline to growth depends on three key variables: the pace of de-escalation in the Middle East, the pace of resumption at accident-hit refineries in the US and Mexico, and the strength of export recovery after easing of sanctions on Venezuela. Against the backdrop of the maintenance peak receding and some units planning to resume production, the supply-demand gap is expected to narrow further and gradually return to balance. However, the structural tightness of high-quality low-sulphur resources may remain the main theme throughout the year.

SMM Cobalt Morning Briefing: This week, the cobalt industry chain continued to be in the doldrums. Refined cobalt prices were lowered to 360,000 yuan/mt, with off-season demand sluggish; for cobalt intermediate products, the price spread between upstream and downstream diverged noticeably, hindering deal progress. In the cobalt salt and Co3O4 markets, inquiries and order signing were limited, and prices mainly moved sideways. Cobalt powder transaction prices remained at 455,000 yuan/mt, but demand was cautious, and there was still short-term pressure to test the bottom. Orders for ternary cathode precursors and ternary cathode materials were relatively stable; LCO prices were lowered due to falling raw material costs; and the market focused on the pace of restocking in Q3.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Market Cautious Ahead of Rate Decision, Silver Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise] SMM, July 28 - US-Iran ceasefire expectations pressured oil prices, and rate hike concerns eased somewhat, but the market was cautious ahead of the Fed decision, causing silver prices to retreat after a rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Brief: Battery Material Prices Show Divergent Trends, End-user Procurement Remains Cautious] Lithium ore prices are in the doldrums but low-priced resources are limited, lithium carbonate spot and futures prices rebounded, and lithium hydroxide maintained a steady slight increase. Refined cobalt and cobalt salt are generally in the doldrums, impacted by off-season demand, sufficient inventory, and cautious procurement. Nickel sulphate cost support strengthened, ternary cathode precursor prices held steady, and ternary cathode material rebounded slightly, but actual cargo pick-up remained cautious. LFP prices declined along with raw material, while shipments continued to grow, supported by energy storage and commercial vehicle demand. Anode, separator, and electrolyte prices were generally stable, with expectations for some raw material cost transmission downstream. Sodium-ion battery material supply remained relatively tight, while the recycling market consolidated on a weak note due to fluctuations in lithium and cobalt raw material prices.