SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 15 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly. Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%. As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY] PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. [PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor] To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded. US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data) According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. Data: Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone Overall Product Price Center Shifted Slightly Upward, Weekly Market Trading Atmosphere Was Subdued] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market shifted slightly upward, with the mainstream transaction range at 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotations: monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; monomer enterprises in north-west China lowered their online store prices by 800 yuan/mt to 15,100 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations in other regions were mainly at 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Currently, mid- and downstream enterprises were primarily drawing down inventory, so overall market transactions this week were limited to small volumes of just-in-time procurement.

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

[SMM Copper Foil Market News] SMM estimates that in May 2026, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises will be 91.48%, up 1.74 percentage points MoM and up 19.32 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of lithium battery copper foil in May is estimated at 92.55%, up 2.12 percentage points MoM and up 22.16 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil in May is estimated at 89.42%, up 0.98 percentage points MoM and up 13.81 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Copper Foil Market News] Copper foil downstream sectors with strong orders continued destocking. In April, SMM copper foil days of finished product inventories stood at 3.05 days, down 0.26 days MoM; days of raw material inventories stood at 4.46 days, down 0.26 days MoM.