SMM April 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices briefly rose at the opening, touching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward amid a broad decline in non-ferrous metals. Prices dipped to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in the later session, rebounded slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,695 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, tightening supply in east China. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking, with total volumes declining. Additionally, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, reducing imported lead inflows into China. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with rigid demand contracting notably. The weak supply-demand pattern persisted, and SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the near term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 27 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices edged up initially, touching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt. Bullish momentum then slowed down, and prices moved sideways around 16,770 yuan/mt. In the afternoon session, futures fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,690 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,715 yuan/mt, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, and supply in east China remained tight. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment on procurement, with rigid demand in the market contracting notably. Affected by weakness in both supply and demand, SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM January 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in January 2026 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Overall downstream operating rates trended downward during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also declined, dropping 4.4 percentage points MoM to 72.1%, a decrease larger than initially expected. The main reasons include: 1) Demand had not yet recovered due to the off-season impact, coupled with some downstream enterprises starting their Chinese New Year break early; 2) Aluminum prices generally fluctuated at highs in January, putting pressure on downstream profit margins, leading to an overall decline in operating rates; 3) Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material demand. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in January decreased by 5.9% YoY but increased by 19.4% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of January, SMM statistics show China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.996 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering February 2026, aluminum production is expected to decrease MoM due to fewer calendar days. Additionally, some new aluminum projects are expected to steadily commence and ramp up production. Regarding the liquid aluminum proportion, with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand for raw materials is marginally weakening. Combined with the impact of high aluminum prices suppressing demand, downstream demand is further weakening marginally, and enterprises' willingness to cast ingots has significantly increased. The liquid aluminum proportion is expected to decrease significantly by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM

SMM June 18: Dealers in Shandong reported weak replacement demand for e-bike lead-acid batteries in the market, with retailers purchasing as needed and maintaining battery inventory within one week. Meanwhile, rumors of price hikes emerged in the wholesale battery market amid rising lead prices, with the mainstream 48V12Ah model currently priced at 300-310 yuan per unit. Manufacturers in Anhui indicated moderate demand for e-bike lead-acid batteries, with limited OEM orders for complete vehicles. Factories maintained production cuts, with operating rates around 80%, and primarily relied on long-term contracts for raw material lead procurement. Manufacturers in Jiangsu noted a weakening off-season impact on the e-bike lead-acid battery market, with improved finished product orders. Current factory operating rates rebounded to above 80%, while raw material lead was purchased as needed.

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in May was 70.26%, down 3.59 percentage points MoM and 0.75 percentage points lower than the expected value. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in May increased by 7.42 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 81.96%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 52.89%, and that of small enterprises was 55.10%.

[Insufficient Increase in Terminal Production Orders, Price of Non-oriented Electrical Steel Still Has Room to Decline Next Week] This week, the price of cold-rolled non-oriented electrical steel in Shanghai declined slightly, with overall market transactions remaining weak. This week, the ferrous metals series futures market fluctuated, and the spot price of HRC showed relatively small fluctuations. However, the long-term outlook for finished steel prices is downward, which still has a negative impact on the non-oriented electrical steel market. On the fundamental side, the supply of non-oriented electrical steel resources remains loose, especially among private mills, where sales competition is fierce and prices lack support. State-owned enterprises face relatively small pressure in supplying non-oriented electrical steel resources, with overall inventory at a low level and prices for these resources remaining firm. Additionally, the market is in an off-season for demand, with order growth in downstream automotive and home appliance industries gradually narrowing, limiting the increase in demand for non-oriented electrical steel. Looking ahead, the supply of non-oriented electrical steel is expected to tighten somewhat, with some manufacturers voluntarily cutting production, improving the loose supply situation. However, demand release remains insufficient, with only a moderate increase in downstream terminal production orders. The market is generally cautious and waiting to see, and it is expected that there will still be some room for price declines in Shanghai's non-oriented electrical steel next week.