Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261

Case Details September 18, 2025 Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement stating that, on September 10, 2025, a Vietnamese producer filed an application for an anti-circumvention investigation into HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China with a width greater than 1,880 mm and less than 2,300 mm. October 27, 2025 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3176/QD-BCT, stating that, upon application by a Vietnamese producer, it had initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in the anti-dumping case concerning HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China, to examine whether the products under investigation had been slightly modified into HRC with a width exceeding 1,880 mm and less than or equal to 2,300 mm for export to Vietnam in order to evade anti-dumping duties. The announcement took effect on the date of issuance. April 2, 2026 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade temporarily applied anti-circumvention trade remedy measures to certain hot-rolled steel plate products originating in the People’s Republic of China. The Vietnamese tariff codes of the products under investigation are 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, 7208.90.90, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90. All producers and export enterprises of the People’s Republic of China are subject to an anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 Products not subject to the temporary anti-circumvention trade remedy measures include: hot-rolled steel plate products with carbon content (by weight) > 0.30%; hot-rolled steel plate products in coil form with thickness ≥10 mm; hot-rolled steel plate products formally excluded from the scope of anti-dumping duties pursuant to Decision No. 1959/QĐ-BCT dated July 4, 2025; and steel plate products of grades BW450, BS700MCK2, AG700, and LG700T. This decision will take effect 15 days after the date of issuance. From Anti-Dumping to Anti-Circumvention: What Changed in the Export Data? Previously, Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil products applied only to products with a width not exceeding 1,880 mm, leading many Chinese exporters to evade tariffs by “slightly adjusting” product specifications into the wider 1,880-2,300 mm range. This anti-circumvention investigation and the subsequent duty decision were intended to completely close this loophole. Under the new rules, hot-rolled steel coils with widths between 1,880 mm and 2,300 mm will also be included in the taxable scope and be subject to the same anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 as the original products. Figure 1 Relationship Between Total HRC Exports to Vietnam and Exports of Products Involved in the Anti-Circumvention Case It can be seen that before the anti-dumping case was filed, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam mainly consisted of conventional-width coils below 1,880-2,300 mm. This was mainly because producing wide hot-rolled products above 2 meters requires special production lines, and the China steel mills capable of exporting such products were highly concentrated, mainly large steel enterprises such as Baowu, Angang, Bensteel Group, and WISCO, making them non-mainstream export products. After the preliminary anti-dumping ruling, the proportion of wide coils gradually increased. Another set of data shows the following . First, if the preliminary anti-dumping ruling is taken as the time period, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam from January to June of that year had already plunged 46 YoY to 2.3165 million mt, while exports of wide coils surged 815 YoY to 1.2964 million mt. This was also the main support for why the decline in the average exports of China’s HRC to Vietnam was not obvious during the period from the preliminary anti-dumping ruling to the filing of the anti-circumvention case. Second, if the filing of the anti-circumvention case is taken as the time period, as of December 2025 , China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 1.0797 million mt, with a monthly average of 529,900 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 627,000 mt, accounting for 58.08. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 226,300 mt. Furthermore, if 2026 is taken as the time period, because the market had previously expected anti-circumvention measures to be implemented in December, some export traders still conducted transactions before then, so the data for November-December 2025 cannot fully reflect the actual reduction in export volumes caused by concerns over the confirmation of anti-circumvention measures. Since the beginning of 2026, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 229,700 mt, with a monthly average of 114,800 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 131,300 mt, accounting for 57.17. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 49,200 mt, representing a decline of 3,789 YoY compared with the 2025 monthly average export volume. Impact of Anti-Circumvention Measures It is thus evident that the further implementation of anti-circumvention measures will further narrow the channel for China’s hot-rolled products to be exported to Vietnam. Last year, Vietnam was still the largest market for China’s hot-rolled exports, but the export landscape may change significantly in the future as a result of this incident. For China’s export enterprises, they should seize the remaining 15-day “breathing space” and accelerate shipments of orders on hand. In the long run, they need to proactively adjust their product mix and pay more attention to export opportunities for high-end products.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyser market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyser market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. There was no offline delivery information this week. Project-related updates: PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.: It issued a processing tender for its brine hydrogen production electrolyser. Funding for the tender project was self-raised by the enterprise, with a contribution ratio of 100%. It is understood that procurement of necessary raw materials and components included, but was not limited to, integrated electrolyser materials such as electrodes, end plates, bipolar plates, separators, and gaskets. Suppliers were also required to provide essential auxiliary accessories for the electrolyser, including cooling towers, chillers, and potassium hydroxide, in accordance with the purchaser’s requirements. Guangxi University of Science and Technology: It procured a hydrogen-fuel low-speed hybrid autonomous vehicle experimental system from Hefei Zhongke Shengu Technology Development Co., Ltd., with a transaction price of 844,800 yuan. Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences: It issued a procurement notice for a 500 W hydrogen fuel cell testing platform. It is understood that the testing platform will be used for performance, efficiency, and durability testing of 500 W-class hydrogen fuel cell stacks and single cells. CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: The Jilin Hydrogen Future Energy Factory Integrated Energy Project issued a procurement notice for an energy-saving assessment report. It is understood that the project had successively completed procurement for reports including water resources assessment, feasibility study, land-use pre-examination, hydrogen pipeline design, and power market analysis. Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.: It released a public notice on the social stability risk assessment survey for Phase I of the 30 GW new energy green hydrogen production and hydrogen pipeline project (Inner Mongolia section). According to the notice, the project is located in Tuke Town, Uxin Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It is understood that the hydrogen pipeline route is 19.6 km long, with a design pressure of 6.3 MPa, and uses L290QH steel pipe material (seamless steel pipe). Total project investment is about 449.38 million yuan. Allocated by route length (with the Uxin Banner section accounting for 53.4%), the estimated investment within the area is about 239.97 million yuan. The project construction period is 2026–2028. PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. : Its hydrogen energy R&D department plans to custom-process one set of MW-class brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment, with hydrogen production capacity of no less than 200 Nm³/h. Tender scope: procurement of one set of brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment. Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited: It officially signed the Phase I project of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng coal-based new materials wind and solar power hydrogen production project. According to the agreement, Shanghai Electric will provide eight 1,250 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysers, the world’s largest single-set 5,000 Nm³/h separation and purification system, and an industry-first outdoor three-dimensional layout solution. Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd.: During the 5th China International Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Exhibition, Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony at the China National Convention Center in Beijing for a domestic MW-class AEM electrolyser testing project. Shenneng Northern Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: It issued procurement for the preparation of a feasibility study report for the Etuoke Banner wind power hydrogen production integration green application project (Phase II), covering hydrogen production by water electrolysis and SAF synthesis. It is understood that the Etuoke Banner 505 MW wind and solar power hydrogen production integration green ammonia synthesis project (Phase I) was successfully selected in October 2025 as one of the first batch of hydrogen energy pilot projects in China’s energy sector, and is planned to be fully completed and put into operation in August 2026. Policy Review​ 1. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments on issuing the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Energy-Saving Equipment (2026–2028). The document stated that by 2028, mass-produced water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment should achieve DC power consumption of less than 4.2 kWh/Nm³ under rated operating conditions. 2. Notice of the General Office of the National Energy Administration on issuing the Guidelines for the Establishment of 2026 Energy Industry Standard Plans. The key areas for the 2026 energy industry standard plan include eight items. In the hydrogen energy field, key directions include fundamentals and general applications, hydrogen production and conversion, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refuelling, hydrogen power and power generation, and hydrogen equipment. 3. Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 18 of 2026: announcement of the launch of a trade barrier investigation into US practices and measures that hinder trade in green products. Preliminary evidence and information obtained by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the US had implemented multiple practices and measures in trade-related areas that hinder trade in green products, including but not limited to restricting exports of green products to the US, slowing new energy deployment, and restricting technology cooperation related to green products. Enterprise Updates​​ Xieqing (Shanghai) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Its hydrogen-powered drone H100 was officially put into use for material transport by China Post in Suibin County/Bayan County, Heilongjiang, entering the stage of regularised operations. Henan Junheng Industrial Group Biotechnology Co., Ltd. : Five reactors for its 1 million mt/year waste oil and fat processing sustainable aviation fuel project were successfully hoisted into place. Hubei Yingteli Electric Co., Ltd.: The two sets of thousand-cubic-metre-class IGBT hydrogen production power supplies it provided were successfully applied in South Korea’s first off-grid green hydrogen production project. Ordos Hanxia New Energy Co., Ltd. : At the hydrogen production plant of the Narisong PV hydrogen production industry demonstration project in Jungar Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the first truckload of 99.999% national-standard high-purity green hydrogen in 2026 was successfully dispatched after filling operations were completed. Hydshine Energy (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.: It announced the completion of its Pre-B round of financing. This round was exclusively strategically invested by the Shenzhen Energy Storage Fund. It is understood that the funds will be mainly used for global market expansion, next-generation product R&D, and industrialisation capabilities. Shanghai Hydrogen Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It was successfully recognised as a “Shanghai Specialised, Sophisticated, Distinctive and Innovative SME” in the first batch list of Shanghai specialised and sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises. Tianneng Battery Group Co., Ltd. : During the Tianneng 2026 Spring New Product Launch held in Tianjin, Tianneng signed strategic cooperation agreements with multiple partners on hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state batteries. In hydrogen energy, Tianneng joined hands with Guangdong Vision Holding Group and Tianjin Weida Space Technology to deepen the deployment of hydrogen-powered shared bicycle scenarios and promote the rollout of this model in more cities. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications​​ 1. Professor Yu Ying’s team at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional graded nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core part for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution. 3.​​Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolysers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production and supporting the scale-up of low-cost green hydrogen.

SMM News, March 31， In Q1 2026, amid macro tailwinds, expectations of a supply gap, and successive geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, aluminum prices repeatedly hit new highs. The quarterly average SMM A00 aluminum price reached 24,028 yuan/mt, up 17.5% YoY; the quarterly average closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract at 15:00 Beijing time reached $3,196/mt, up 21.8% YoY. High prices suppressed downstream consumption: At the end of 2025, SMM expected China’s primary aluminum consumption growth in 2026 to be 2.0%; as of February, that growth rate had fallen to 1.1%. As a result, the proportion of liquid aluminum in the aluminum industry declined significantly, and aluminum social inventory hit a nearly three-year high. As of March 31, the inflection point in China’s aluminum social inventory was still unclear, while the absolute inventory level had already entered the upper range of SMM’s previous forecast of 1.35-1.4 million mt. However, affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, aluminum supply and demand were both weak, fundamental risks increased, and prices saw wild swings. Under the impact of high prices, aluminum ingot inventory may continue to build further. According to SMM, as of the end of March, some aluminum ingots in certain regions were still backlogged at rail platforms and outside warehouses. High prices also accelerated supply growth: As of the end of Q1, average profits in China’s aluminum industry exceeded 8,000 yuan/mt. Stimulated by high profits, China’s aluminum supply growth is expected to exceed expectations. At the end of 2025, SMM expected China’s aluminum supply growth in 2026 to reach 1.7%; as of the end of Q1 2026, SMM expected that growth rate had risen to 1.9%. Outside China, supply growth was also boosted by high prices: 1) A smelter in Spain had originally planned to resume full production by 2026, and according to foreign media reports in March, it had already resumed to 90% of operating load; 2) In October 2025, an Icelandic smelter cut production on one line due to equipment failure. It had originally planned to resume production in September-October 2026, but has now moved the plan forward to start by the end of April; 3) At the end of 2025, expectations were that Indonesia’s operating aluminum capacity would reach 2 million mt by the end of 2026; that expectation has now been raised to 2.2-2.5 million mt. Q2 Outlook: At present, one of the decisive factors for global aluminum fundamentals and price trends is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. SMM analysis showed that outside China, aluminum capacity that had already cut production or faced substantial production reduction risk exceeded 3 million mt. If subsequent production cuts from this portion of capacity are confirmed, outside China aluminum supply is expected to maintain negative YoY growth for an extended period, and global aluminum fundamentals are expected to face a large gap, with the gap outside China far exceeding that in China. In this case, aluminum prices in and outside China are expected to rise sharply again, with overseas prices expected to outperform domestic prices. China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline, while exports from downstream aluminum plants are expected to increase. However, if actual production cuts come in below expectations, while consumption sees a marked reduction due to factors such as energy and inflation, the upward move in aluminum prices may face insufficient momentum. At present, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting the global aluminum supply-demand pattern, and SMM will continue to follow related developments.

The EU-imposed definitive anti-dumping and countervailing duties ranging from 15.4 per cent to 28.5 per cent on products under CN code ex 7607 11 19 are expected to run until December 9, 2026. The EU duties on Chinese aluminium converter foil came into effect in December 2021, as an effort to address the unfair trade practices found through the investigation in October 2020. The investigation then led to a provisional duty in June 2021, before the final tariffs became effective, with the combined duty range between 16.1 per cent and 46.7 per cent.

Shandong Xingyi Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd. is moving forward with its high-speed precision cold rolling mill manufacturing project in Guan County, Liaocheng. With a total investment of 1.05 billion yuan, the facility features three interconnected stainless steel workshops designed for fully integrated, end-to-end production of cold rolling equipment. Having broken ground in June 2025, the project has completed its foundation work and is on track for an October 2026 launch. Once operational, it will produce 30 sets of cold rolling equipment annually, filling a key gap in the region’s high-end machinery manufacturing sector.