ChinaIOL data shows that in June 2026, China’s household air conditioner production totaled 17.76 million units, down 5.4% YoY; sales reached 18.195 million units, down 7.3% YoY. Of which, exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% YoY; domestic sales were 11.402 million units, down 7.4% YoY. According to the data, the market remains on a downward trajectory, but the overall decline is narrowing, and both domestic sales and exports are showing signs of recovery. Domestic Sales Market: Boosted by the 618 Shopping Festival, Downward Trend Narrows In the domestic sales market, the decline in household air conditioner shipments noticeably narrowed in June, mainly boosted by the 618 shopping festival, which helped destock online inventory and prompted some restocking among enterprises. However, terminal market performance during 618 still fell short of previous years. On the cost side, prices remained high and fluctuated, while end-user prices were still locked in fierce competition. Sales of mid- to high-end products have declined to some extent this year, the overall price structure of the market has been shifting downward, and enterprise profitability is facing considerable pressure. With June ending, some listed home appliance companies are about to release semi-annual reports, and driven by the pressure of financial reporting, enterprises are likely to sell more aggressively in June in an effort to give a good account to the market. Cumulative domestic sales in January–June reached 62.822 million units, down 5.6% YoY. As the data indicates, the overall domestic sales market in H1 remained under pressure, coming from persistently high costs and inventories on the one hand, and from the phasing out of state subsidies and diminishing marginal returns on the other. Consumers who have been ‘educated’ by low prices now have longer and more cautious purchasing cycles, which feeds back into the market as price involution across the industry. In such an environment, the industry is undergoing a new wave of reshuffling, and enterprises without orders or with poor profitability will be eliminated from the market. Export Market: Decline Narrowing in Sync, Localized Heatwaves Facilitate Destocking In the export market, although some regional markets have seen a partial recovery, exports still fell 7.1% YoY and 10.4% MoM. The dual decline was mainly due to some regions entering the off-season, coupled with accumulated inventory pressure, making overseas dealers less willing to restock. As high temperatures overseas gradually subside, market sales will slowly taper off, and the export scale is expected to return to around 5 million units by July. This is also part of the seasonal structural changes in household air conditioners; as the export off-season sets in, the focus will gradually shift back to the domestic sales market. Cumulative exports in January–June reached 52.703 million units, down 6.8% YoY. In H1 this year, the household air conditioner export market exhibited regional divergence and uneven recovery, with climate, inventory, economic, and policy cycle mismatches being the core influencing factors, while aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts and differing national policies further amplified market uncertainty. In addition, climate trends, inventory cycles, the pace of economic recovery, and changes in trade and energy efficiency policies in core countries vary across regions. Taking Europe as an example, the booming Western European market contrasts with the sluggish Eastern European market. Moreover, the data does not fully represent the overall market picture, and the characteristics of different markets need to be considered. The Western European market is dominated by rental housing, and coupled with local installation policy restrictions, extreme heat has boosted sales of portable air conditioners. In addition, market expectations regarding the weather are also driving growth. However, structural divergence remains pronounced. According to ChinaIOL, the inventory of split-type air conditioners in the Western European market is still saturated, and installation difficulties and environmental protection restrictions have been constraining the growth of split-type units.

It is reported that Daye Nonferrous Metals has launched a public online auction for a batch of tellurium ingots today. Relevant details are as follows: Lot details: Tellurium ingots with 99.98% purity, totaling approximately 175 kilograms; Starting bid price: 700 yuan per kilogram; Public notice and bidding period: 15:00 July 17, 2026 – 15:00 July 21, 2026.

This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processors in China recorded 61.3%, down 0.6 percentage points WoW.

If you have looked at the car sales charts over the past two years, you would have noticed a striking change: the once-dominant joint-venture internal combustion engine vehicles are being replaced by a string of unfamiliar domestic NEV names. In April this year, the domestic retail penetration rate of passenger NEVs surpassed the 60% mark for the first time. Against the backdrop that over 6 out of every 10 new cars sold are now electrified, the shift from ICE vehicles to NEVs is likely becoming the broader industry trend. But behind the excitement, ordinary people are more confused: with prices falling again and again, is it that technology has lost its value, or is competition just too fierce? With all the talk of "smart driving" and "800V", which features are truly practical and which are gimmicks? To answer these questions, you don't need to understand complex battery chemistry formulas, nor do you need to study financial reports. We just need to refocus on three fundamental industry logics. Once these three points are clarified, the broad trend will become clear. Logic 1: Why Cars Must Be Electrified Many people attribute the widespread adoption of NEVs to "policy subsidies" or "license plate advantages". These did indeed provide an early boost to the industry, but now, the more fundamental reason is a dual drive from energy security and experience upgrades. From a national perspective, China's dependence on foreign oil has long exceeded 70%, while electricity comes from diverse sources (coal, hydropower, wind, solar, nuclear). Replacing imported oil with self-sufficient electricity is a strategic choice for a mature industrial power. Therefore, electrification is not a passing fad but a set direction spanning decades. In terms of user experience, electric drive delivers a level of smoothness, quietness, and instant response that internal combustion engine vehicles in the same price range struggle to match. This experiential gap, rooted in the drivetrain, means that many people find it hard to go back to driving an ICE vehicle once they have driven an NEV. So, electrification is no longer a question of "whether or not", but rather "how fast versus how slow". Logic 2: Why Are Cars Getting Cheaper? People often ask: "Do these price cuts mean quality is being compromised?" But in reality, the decline in prices is essentially a natural outcome of the industry chain's maturity. The main reasons include the following: Raw material price normalization: Spot lithium carbonate prices fell from a peak of nearly 600,000 yuan per mt in 2022 to around 150,000 yuan per mt currently, directly contributing to lower battery costs; Process innovation: The popularization of integrated die-casting has reduced auto body manufacturing time by over 50%; Economies of scale: Annual sales of passenger NEVs in China have already reached the 10-million-unit level, significantly diluting the high R&D costs. Just like LCD TVs, which fell from tens of thousands to thousands, not because quality worsened but because the industry mastered large-scale manufacturing. A pragmatic judgment is that the era of buying a good car at a bargain price has indeed begun. From the current industry situation, producers are locked in fierce competition, and for consumers who are about to buy a new car, whether to seize the opportunity to "take advantage" of NEVs should depend on their own driving radius. Logic 3: Why All the Talk About "Intelligence"? Electrification first answers the question of "where does the power come from", but intelligence redefines the "user experience". This is the most fundamental difference between NEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles. The core value of traditional ICE vehicles—engine, transmission, chassis—is set at the factory (except for hardware modifications) with little room for subsequent changes. Today's smart NEVs, however, are shifting their core value toward software and data iteration . After purchase, the car can be upgraded over the network to optimize driving range logic, improve driver assistance, and even change the entire in-car interface—something unimaginable before. As for driver assistance, the situation in 2026 is already quite clear. The penetration rate of Level 2 driver assistance in NEVs exceeds 50%, and the installation rate for Level 2+ has risen to nearly 30%. Driver assistance has become a standard feature in NEVs. In specific scenarios: Highway NOA is already very mature. In the 100,000-150,000 yuan price range, there are over 70 models equipped with highway pilot assist, and some mainstream brands have completed multiple rounds of OTA upgrades. After setting a destination on the highway, the system can autonomously change lanes, overtake, and navigate on/off ramps, and this experience is now quite stable. Urban NOA has also been rapidly rolling out over the past two years. A few years ago, it was only available on models priced above 300,000 yuan, but now, some NEV model in the 140,000-yuan range can run urban NOA. One brand has even equipped an 110,000-yuan model with urban NOA. To be honest, though urban NOA is rapidly popularizing, the actual number of users isn't as high as one might think. Data shows that the activation rate for urban NOA is less than 30%—many people have the feature in their cars but rarely use it daily. On one hand, urban road conditions are indeed complex, and the system occasionally still hesitates or requires human takeover; on the other hand, it shows that there is still some way to go from "having this feature" to "truly integrating it into everyday driving scenarios." Here's a car-buying tip: test how responsive the infotainment system is, whether it can handle multiple tasks simultaneously, how accurate the navigation is, and how well the voice recognition understands natural speech. These fundamental experiences that you'll use every day are the key factors in determining whether the car is "worth it" for you. Summary Looking back at these three logics: Automotive electrification is driven by energy structure and physical experience, making it an irresistible trend. Price declines are a natural outcome of industry maturity, so we should treat them rationally. Intelligence is the major direction of value shift, but we need to distinguish between what already delivers qualitative improvements to the driving and riding experience now and what still needs time to mature. Technology is still advancing, and the market is still changing. But by returning to your true needs—how convenient is charging, how many kilometers do you commute daily, what is your car purchase budget—the answer is often clearer than you think. SMM New Energy Research, Lithium Battery End-User Analyst, Fu Linqi 021-51558494

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to drift lower, with the price center moving further down to around the 150,000 yuan/mt level. The futures market consolidated on a subdued note, with the most-traded 2609 contract fluctuating from an initial range of 147,800-153,600 yuan/mt early in the week to 145,900-152,500 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 145,900 yuan/mt—a fresh recent low. Open interest first declined then rose, as the tug-of-war between longs and shorts persisted. Market trading showed a standoff pattern of “downstream dip-buying while upstream held back from selling,” with actual transactions relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed extremely low willingness to sell amid the rapid price decline, with sentiment toward holding back from selling intensifying. Some spot order quotes were still maintained above 160,000 yuan/mt, as a clear intent to hold prices firm emerged. Downstream material plants showed fairly active buying sentiment below 150,000 yuan/mt, but large-scale concentrated restocking had yet to appear, and purchasing behavior remained cautious, mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions continued to be relatively active, but the psychological price gap between upstream and downstream persisted. On the supply side, production kept falling, and inventory differentiation across the industry chain continued. Lithium carbonate production declined further this week, mainly due to some lithium chemical plants entering maintenance as planned, leading to a noticeable reduction in spodumene-based output. From the perspective of inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants saw slight in-factory inventory buildup due to extremely low willingness to sell and holding back from selling; downstream material plants’ purchase willingness recovered somewhat WoW, but purchasing was cautious due to the still-rapid downward trajectory of prices, resulting in a modest overall inventory buildup; trader inventories destocked more significantly, as downstream procurement improved marginally, compounded by plants’ holding back from selling and traders’ own capital pressures. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices may continue to consolidate on a subdued note, but downside below 150,000 yuan/mt is limited. On the supply side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and shrinking production are providing some floor support to prices. However, on the demand side, downstream purchases remain cautious and rigid-demand-oriented, lacking a large-scale concentrated restocking driver, so prices lack upward momentum. The core contradiction in the current market is: below 150,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness strengthens, providing a floor for prices; but upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling coexists with cautious downstream buying, leaving prices lacking sustained rebound momentum. It is expected that lithium prices will consolidate in the range of 145,000-160,000 yuan/mt in the near term. It is recommended to focus on the defense of the psychological 150,000 yuan/mt level, changes in downstream restocking pace, and the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants.

SMM, July 16 – Hunan Yuneng, a leading LFP producer, sent a price adjustment notice to its clients. Hunan Yuneng stated that since March 2026, affected by multiple factors including global geopolitical fluctuations and supply chain circulation disruptions, core raw material prices for LFP such as sulphur, phosphoric acid, and ferrous sulphate have continued to rise. Iron phosphate prices have surged from about 10,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year to 15,000 yuan/mt, an increase of over 50%. Moreover, iron phosphate now accounts for over 70% of the LFP processing fees. Rising costs have continuously squeezed profit margins in the production and manufacturing sector, creating significant pressure on the company’s operations, production, and capital turnover. Meanwhile, demand from downstream NEV and energy storage markets has been growing steadily and continuously, while the supply of high-quality, effective industry capacity remains persistently tight. Since July, the industry operating rate has reached as high as 90%, with high-end capacity being particularly tight. After its maintenance, Hunan Yuneng has been running at full capacity this year, and its newly added capacity this year can no longer meet the order growth demands of all clients. The company has decided that starting August 1, 2026, the processing fees for all LFP products will be uniformly raised by 2,000 yuan/mt. Data shows that the monthly average price of LFP in June 2026 was 61,113.33 yuan/mt, up 19.34% from the 51,209.52 yuan/mt average at the beginning of this year, and compared to the 33,802.08 yuan/mt average in the same period last year, up over 80% YoY. From the demand side, lithium battery shipments maintain a high-growth trajectory, underpinning the high operating rates of LFP enterprises. Some institutions forecast that overall lithium battery shipments will maintain around 45% growth in 2026, and industry volume is expected to reach 3 TWh in 2027, with the growth pace ahead of earlier projections. Industry growth is jointly supported by the power battery and ESS battery segments. Among these, the energy storage sector shows more prominent growth elasticity： ESS battery shipments are expected to increase by over 60% YoY in 2026, with annual shipments approaching 1 TWh, and its share of total lithium battery shipments exceeding 38%. This share is projected to rise further above 40% in 2027 and approach 50% in 2028.