[SMM North China Copper Cathode Spot Market] The continuous sharp rise in copper prices suppressed copper cathode consumption. New orders from downstream buyers in the northern market slowed down significantly, and spot copper cathode premiums came under pressure.

[SMM North China Copper Cathode Spot Market] As consumption in the northern copper cathode market has warmed noticeably in recent days, downstream buyers made concentrated purchases, causing spot supply in the market to become tight, and spot premiums continued to rise.

[SMM Analysis] Macro side, this week witnessed multiple shocks in the global macro landscape: The US Trump administration officially launched a national security investigation into the copper industry, planning to impose additional tariffs to fill the domestic copper cathode supply-demand gap, which briefly drove COMEX copper prices up by 3%, while the price spread with LME is expected to remain high in the long term. Meanwhile, Trump announced a unified 25% tariff hike on the EU, Mexico, and Canada starting March 4, reinforcing the closed-loop North American supply chain. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine standoff entered a critical phase, with Ukraine leaning toward signing a mining agreement after the US forgave $500 billion in debt, though Zelensky continues to use NATO membership as leverage. Putin, on the other hand, proposed a rare earth production increase and sought to resume aluminum exports to the US.

》View SMM Metal Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Spot Price Trends of SMM Metals On the macro side, this week witnessed multiple global macroeconomic shocks: the US Trump administration officially launched a national security investigation into the copper industry, intending to impose additional tariffs to fill the domestic copper cathode supply-demand gap, which briefly spiked CMX copper prices by 3%, with the price spread against LME copper expected to remain high in the long term. Meanwhile, Trump announced a unified 25% tariff on the EU, Mexico, and Canada starting March 4, strengthening the North American supply chain loop. The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a critical phase as Ukraine leaned toward signing a mining agreement after the US forgave $500 billion in debt, though Zelensky continued to use NATO membership as leverage, while Putin proposed a rare earth production increase plan and sought to resume aluminum exports to the US. Beyond geopolitical turmoil, the supply chain faced another black swan event: a nationwide power outage in Chile paralyzed the northern copper mining region for six hours, causing temporary production halts at the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, and four major Codelco mines. Although the actual production loss was limited, the incident exposed the fragility of infrastructure in resource-rich countries, further heightening market concerns over copper price volatility risks. Under the influence of multiple factors, LME copper retreated during the week from around $9,500/mt to approximately $9,350/mt. SHFE copper pulled back from 77,500 yuan/mt to 76,700 yuan/mt. On the fundamentals side, after the LME structure shifted to BACK, the US dollar-denominated copper market saw undercurrents intensify, with weekly copper concentrate TC transactions dropping below -$10/mt. Following major miners' downward revisions of their 2025 production targets, the spot market experienced escalating tensions. For copper cathode, the price spread between warehouse warrants and B/L continued to widen, and the imported copper market showed significant divergence. Domestically, the pace of social inventory buildup slowed, the SHFE copper forward-month structure shifted to BACK, and suppliers held a tight supply outlook for the future. Coupled with domestic smelters gradually finalizing export plans, a turning point in domestic inventory may soon emerge. Looking ahead to next week, several key US economic data points are set to be released, with unemployment rates and February non-farm payroll additions expected to guide subsequent US consumption expectations. After three consecutive months of declining consumer confidence indices, the market holds concerns over a cooling US economy. If employment data underperforms, copper futures may face downward pressure. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $9,300-9,500/mt, while SHFE copper is projected to range from 75,500-77,000 yuan/mt. On the spot side, the domestic inventory turning point is anticipated, with March port arrivals of imported copper expected to continue declining. Meanwhile, domestic smelters may gradually commence maintenance. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2403 contract are expected to range from a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

》View SMM Metal Prices, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Metal Spot Cargo This week, spot premiums/discounts in North China fluctuated under pressure. As of Thursday, spot premiums/discounts stood at a discount of 380–300 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 340 yuan/mt. After the holiday, downstream demand in North China remained weak, suppressed by copper prices fluctuating at highs. Following deliveries during the week, copper prices pulled back slightly, leading to a brief recovery in consumption. However, by the end of the week, as copper prices rebounded, demand weakened again. Some suppliers, pressured by inventory, sold at low prices, causing spot premiums/discounts to operate at low levels. Currently, the northern region remains in the off-season for consumption, with demand heavily dependent on copper prices. Under sufficient supply, the center of copper prices needs to decline further to significantly boost downstream buying interest. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

As SMM understands, Northern Copper Industry (000737) disclosed its interim report, with operating revenue of 12.422 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 173.99%; net profit of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.66%; and basic earnings per share of 0.26 yuan.