This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week. On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt. Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Considerably at High Levels] Overall, the current SHFE aluminum price has experienced a short-term sharp rise driven by events and capital, with market trading sentiment in a phase of excitement. Subsequently, caution is needed against the risk of sentiment cooling and market correction triggered by multiple factors.

SMM, May 19, 2025 The most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,925 yuan/mt during the day. It rose slightly in early trading, touching a high of 16,985 yuan/mt. However, due to the lingering uncertainties in tariff negotiations and the sluggish spot trades of domestic lead ingots, bearish sentiment prevailed. In the afternoon, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 16,835 yuan/mt at the close, and eventually closed at 16,860 yuan/mt, down 0.06%, with an open interest of 27,388. Recently, macro sentiment has been unstable, exerting a significant impact on non-ferrous metal prices. Additionally, the import window for crude lead has opened to some extent, with some producers having purchased corresponding supplies. Given the limited production enthusiasm of downstream battery producers, caution is advised regarding the drag on lead prices from potential inventory buildup pressure in the lead ingot market. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Disagreements Between Bulls and Bears Intensify at the 260,000 Mark, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Considerably] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened at 262,500 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 261,480 yuan/mt. The price fluctuated and consolidated during the session. In the morning, non-ferrous metals were generally under pressure, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 259,980 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% intraday. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: US Dollar Index Fluctuates at Highs, Suppressing Non-Ferrous Metal Prices; SHFE Tin Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) jumped initially and then pulled back today. In the morning session, it surged to 262,000 yuan/mt, buoyed by expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts by the PBOC and the US-China economic and trade talks. However, it pulled back in the afternoon session due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and a stronger US dollar, eventually closing at 261,480 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.16% from the previous trading day. Total open interest in the night session declined slightly to 31,000 lots. Concerns Over the US Economy: Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ, core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, consumer confidence fell to a record low, and the manufacturing PMI pulled back to 48.7, indicating intensifying downward pressure on the economy. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, pushing back interest rate cut expectations to July. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the non-ferrous metal sector. On the demand side, solder companies' post-holiday orders remained stable but without significant increases. The US's electronic tariff policies on China suppressed downstream restocking expectations. Trading in the spot market was mediocre, with traders reporting low inquiry willingness. Spot transaction prices ranged from 260,500 to 262,500 yuan/mt. However, smelters held onto their prices and were reluctant to sell, with downstream companies primarily making just-in-time procurement, and low-priced supplies were favoured...